Ethan Katz
kats-1.bsky.social
Ethan Katz
@kats-1.bsky.social
Publisher, journalist, Social Trends Researcher
It is easy to predict that AI development will soon be hampered by limitations on the amount of power or data available. To overcome both, what will be needed is a rationally structured data relationship, in other words, a large amount of "template data."
September 5, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Reposted by Ethan Katz
Premium newsletter: My 14.5k word piece, "AI Bubble 2027" - extrapolations of what may happen in the next 18 months, conditions that might accelerate a collapse, and how OpenAI and Anthropic overstate user numbers and revenues while hiding their awful burnrates.
www.wheresyoured.at/ai-bubble-20...
AI Bubble 2027
Soundtrack: The Dillinger Escape Plan - One Of Us Is The Killer An MIT study found that 95% of organizations are getting "zero return" from generative AI, seemingly every major outlet is now writing ...
www.wheresyoured.at
August 27, 2025 at 3:04 PM
SoftBank Chairman and President Masayoshi Son said. ‘’We want to create one billion AI agents across the SoftBank Group.‘’ 
one billion!
ai.softbank/insights/011/
グループ全体で10億 AI agents を作る:SoftBank World 2025 孫 正義特別講演より | AIに対する考え | AI⇒SoftBank Group
グループ全体で10億 AI agents を作る:SoftBank World 2025 孫 正義特別講演より
ai.softbank
August 29, 2025 at 10:06 AM
A letter from Lieutenant General Ichimaru to President Roosevelt. He wrapped this letter around his body and died on Iwo Jima in a final assault. The letter is now carefully preserved in a museum in the United States.
ja.m.wikisource.org/wiki/%E3%83%...
https://ja.m.wikisource.org/wiki/%E3%83%AB%E3%83%BC%E3%82%BA%E3%83%99%E3%83%AB%E3%83%88%E3%83%8B%E4%B8%8E%E3%83%95%E3%83%AB%E6%9B%
August 28, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Keiko Sonoi, a Japanese actress who was known for her excellent performances in supporting roles, died on August 6, 1945 at the age of 32 of atomic bomb sickness (radiation damage) after her mobile theater troupe was hit by an atomic bomb in Hiroshima, where the troupe was based at the time.
August 24, 2025 at 11:47 AM
I heard this story from an older man. After the Tokyo air raids in 1945, American military planes circled Kanagawa Prefecture and strafed children swimming in the sea on their way back. Similar stories are common throughout Japan. Why target non-combatants? It was the madness of war.
August 22, 2025 at 3:18 AM
In 1945, the US military bombed Tokyo, killing about 100,000 civilians in one night. The atomic bomb killed 140,000 people in one day, and 94,000 people three days later. Over 300,000 civilians were killed in just three days. It is strange that this is not considered a genocide. Why?
August 15, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Reposted by Ethan Katz
“People need to think carefully,” says Nagasaki atomic-bomb survivor Mitsuko Yoshimura, 102. “What does winning or losing even bring? Wanting to expand a country’s territory, wanting a country to gain more power? I don’t understand it. What I do feel deeply is the utter foolishness of war.”
How the atomic bombing of Nagasaki tore apart Japan’s understanding of motherhood | CNN
Eighty years after the US bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, aging survivors — some more than 100 years old — reveal the shame and stigma they endured as young women of childbearing age.
www.cnn.com
August 9, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The Los Alamos Target Committee discussed dropping atomic bombs on urban centers, but there was no discussion of mass civilian massacres. Why?
www.dannen.com/decision/tar...
Atomic Bomb: Decision -- Target Committee, May 10-11, 1945
Transcribed minutes of Target Committee meeting, Los Alamos, May 10-11, 1945
www.dannen.com
August 10, 2025 at 7:57 AM
In 1945, many high-ranking military officials in the Truman administration argued that it was pointless to use the atomic bomb against Japan, which was on the verge of surrendering. But Truman was overruled by J.Byrnes, who strongly advocated the use of atomic bombs to deter the Soviet Union.
August 8, 2025 at 1:50 PM
They dropped the atomic bombs, knowing that Japan would soon surrender. Why they did so twice.?
Who are they?
www.cbsnews.com/news/hiroshi...
As Hiroshima marks 80 years since U.S. atomic bombing, survivor says "nuclear weapons and humanity cannot co-exist"
The United States dropped the world's first atomic bomb on Hiroshima, Japan, on Aug. 6, 1945, during World War II.
www.cbsnews.com
August 8, 2025 at 1:23 PM
A 14-year-old boy who lost six family members to the atomic bomb cremated his parents and sister himself. Even now, 80 years later, the painful memories of the war have not healed.
approach.yahoo.co.jp/r/SwgTLr?src...
被爆の両親と姉 自ら火葬した14歳 - Yahoo!ニュース
広島市西区に暮らす鈴藤(すずとう)實さん(94)は朝夕2回、自宅の仏壇の前に座る。毎年8月6日だけは未明に家を出ると、平和記念公園(中区)の原爆慰霊碑へ。夜が明ける前に一人、手を合わせる。「家族が眠
approach.yahoo.co.jp
August 7, 2025 at 4:56 AM
War must not be started. We must be wise enough not to start a fight. However, if a battle should unfortunately occur, we should immediately change our mind and use our wisdom to sheath our swords immediately. This is the key to peace.
June 23, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Trump said, "If peace does not come soon, we will target other targets with precision, speed and technology."
"With technology" It is true that technology can contribute to peace, but it has often been used in such sad contexts. We are witnessing the same context as the atomic bombing,80 years ago
June 22, 2025 at 6:44 AM
Reposted by Ethan Katz
Seeing the studies come in showing clear evidence of intellectual and moral deskilling from AI cognitive automation, a phenomenon that I predicted ten years ago, feels like shit. It was so utterly foreseeable, and avoidable, yet here we are throwing ourselves off the capability cliff like lemmings.
June 19, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Decades ago, a Romanian writer warned of the abandonment of thought by modern man. Totalitarianism may have been replaced by AI.
June 13, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Reposted by Ethan Katz
Apple: The Illusion of Thinking:Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity https://blog.quintarelli.it/2025/06/apple-the-illusion-of-thinkingunderstanding-the-strengths-and-limitations-of-reasoning-models-via-the-lens-of-problem-complexity/
Apple: The Illusion of Thinking:Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity
LRM sta per Large Reasoning Models, una evoluzione degli LLM. Apple mostra che a volte funzionano meglio gli LLM, a volte gli LRM, in generale sono inconsistenti e falliscono con complessità elevate. So’ stagisti digitali, che vi aspettate ? Source: Apple > This is interesting as it shows that compositional reasoning failures in LLMs are not simply due to insufficient context length or inference compute, but rather reflect fundamental limitations in how models maintain algorithmic consistency across problem scales. This suggests that while these models can reach deeper into solution sequences on average, their reasoning processes are more instable and prone to inconsistent performance. … Our findings reveal fundamental limitations in current models: despite sophisticated self-reflection mechanisms, these models fail to develop generalizable reasoning capabilities beyond certain complexity thresholds. We identified three distinct reasoning regimes: standard LLMs outperform LRMs at low complexity, LRMs excel at moderate complexity, and both collapse at high complexity. These insights challenge prevailing assumptions about LRM capabilities and suggest that current approaches may be encountering fundamental barriers to generalizable reasoning. Finally, we presented some surprising results on LRMs that lead to several open questions for future work. Most notably, we observed their limitations in performing exact computation… Continua qui: _the-illusion-of-thinking.pdf_ If you like this post, please consider sharing it.
blog.quintarelli.it
June 9, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Reposted by Ethan Katz
I've been so excited to hold this in my hands... and it's finally here!
"Lessons From Cats For Surviving Fascism"
Thank you to the amazing team at Grand Central Publishing/Hachette and to Pablo Amargo for the stunning illustrations.
Canada, UK, USA - June 24th
Pre-Order Now! MagnaCata.com
June 4, 2025 at 6:19 PM
The scenario is worth reading to see what risks we face several years from now, and We need to think concretely like Mr. Selvans.
ai-2027.com
Sometimes I wonder about who would benefit from a huge AI datacenter bubble inflating and then popping. If there are gigawatts of excess GPU capacity floating around and getting sold off at fire sale prices, who buys them? And what do they get used for?
ai-2027.com
AI 2027
A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
ai-2027.com
June 4, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Yoshua Bengio said he had little faith in OpenAI and Google to prioritize safety as they race toward more intelligent AI systems. He launches a new nonprofit lab [LawZero].  
#AIsafety #LawZero
June 4, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Copyright is important. I'm worried about the increasing number of lawless areas.
Authors should be tracking what is happening with how content is being vacuumed up by some of the big tech companies--including full text of books without permission

Good article here: Book Biz to Big Tech: Pay Up, Then We Can Make Up

#BookSky

www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/...
Book Biz to Big Tech: Pay Up, Then We Can Make Up
Artificial intelligence is upending publishing, and industry leaders know there’s no end in sight. That’s why they plan to win key copyright lawsuits—then forge a path forward through Silicon Valley.
www.publishersweekly.com
June 3, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Reposted by Ethan Katz
“there is no existential risk of a SkyNet Terminator from the sort of AI we have today, but there’s a different sort of existential risk; losing ourselves in the AI mirror,” argues @shannonvallor.bsky.social | iai.tv/video/ai-is-...

Tap the link to watch the talk in full.

#AI #techsky #socsky
AI is a mirror on humanity
AI might seem like the pinnacle of a new frontier, opening up vast possibilities to reshape the future. But AI is backwards-facing by design, being an amalgamation of the ocean of data humanity has…
iai.tv
May 30, 2025 at 8:02 PM