Kate Mackenzie
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katemac.bsky.social
Kate Mackenzie
@katemac.bsky.social
17K followers 3.1K following 1.2K posts
understander of things climate-related, and some other things
@thepolycrisis.bsky.social
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katemac.bsky.social
Another problem with this column/newsletter is the shallow and arguably disingenuous discussion of using AI chatbots for mental health. Even a passing familiarity with psychology should have anyone wondering about this claim:
Excerpt from John Burns-Murdoch: "The most promising results are in the mental health domain, where studies consistently find that not only do people report high levels of satisfaction with chatbots, they also report reduced symptoms of depression relative to control groups." The words "studies consistently find" are hyperlinked to this study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949882124000410
November 20, 2025 at 10:18 PM
katemac.bsky.social
I am *not* sold on this take that interviews for lower-skilled jobs are a "low stakes" matter (and thus, AI is fine!). Like, lower stakes for who? www.ft.com/content/9998...
Excerpt from John Murdoch-Burns column: "There are a lot of caveats with this study — not least whether it can be generalised to other domains — but I think I’m sold on the finding that in certain lower-stakes settings (such as recruitment for some lower-skilled jobs) generative AI’s ability to hold a pleasant conversation while consistently following guidelines has the potential to free up significant amounts of human workers’ time that could be spent on more valuable tasks. That this seems possible without negative side effects is especially promising."
November 20, 2025 at 9:10 PM
katemac.bsky.social
someone needs to remind the FT huh
Screenshot of the headline & standfirst in the FT's report of 2025 World Energy Outlook. Both are manifestly incorrect.
November 13, 2025 at 12:26 AM
katemac.bsky.social
From the latest big Foreign Affairs energy piece, by Jason Bordoff & Megan O'Sullivan.
They're comparing one scenario published in 2024 with a completely different type of scenario (to be) published in 2025 - to say oil demand will rise and therefore problems of supply crunch/concentration loom.
"According to a report published by Bloomberg, in a draft of the IEA’s forthcoming 2025 World Energy Outlook, the agency presents a scenario based on current policy alongside one reflecting policies and measures that have been formally announced or are under development. In previous IEA reports, the latter scenario projected global oil demand to peak by the end of this decade; in the draft, the former scenario shows it continuing to grow through 2050."
November 7, 2025 at 3:51 AM
katemac.bsky.social
Cool chart, turns out that “when the sun doesn’t shine” not so important already in California
Cool graphic of California elec supply (and storage charging) over 24-hour periods. Solar supplies majority during daylight but storage then provides a sizeable chunk for first few hours of evening.
October 13, 2025 at 5:29 AM
katemac.bsky.social
As someone who knows a little about it, I regularly become exasperated at all the rabbit holes one can go down while thinking about climate & insurance. I sat through so many workshops & seminars where we talked through all of this stuff. But we rarely got to the big questions..
Insurance climate "bingo card" meme. Features things like "TRANSMIT SYSTEMIC RISK" , "mortgages require insurance" and "insurable universe shrinking". Cat models are so clever. etc etc. It's kinda dumb but I had to do it!
September 11, 2025 at 1:57 AM
katemac.bsky.social
Looking forward to more on this from every bad faith actor who's claimed clean energy is intrinsically bad for developing countries
The Economist headline, reading: "The green transition has a surprising new home" Standfirst: "Forget about northern Europeans, with their coalition governments and love of cycling" (oh please FUCK OFF)
September 3, 2025 at 4:28 AM
katemac.bsky.social
Glad to see this point about the role of racism in targeting of Lisa Cook from @nathantankus.bsky.social I do feel it’s been downplayed for exactly the reasons he alludes to
“Trump certainly has a disdain for Federal Reserve independence. However, he also has been purging Black people from government and it would be a mistake to think racism does not play a major role in how Lisa Cook has been targeted. I know for many readers this is a boring, uninteresting or even “ideological” point. In my view it is a fact and I think it is long past time to push through the discomfort or disdain that many people have about talking about racism and race in everyday politics. At the most basic level, you will not understand what’s going on without it. The attack on “DEI” is part of the restructuring of our government around Trump’s personal agenda.”
August 26, 2025 at 11:56 PM
katemac.bsky.social
Eg: China's exports of cells and wafers are growing super fast. Actual panels are slowing a little due to Europe stockpiles; but GW capacity is still growing quickly; and a lot of it is to India, Brazil and other EMs. So, those countries are doing fabrication & assembly. Eg India:
Line chart from Ember Energy showing India's imports of Chinese solar cells in GW, going from about 0.2 in early 2022 to about 3.1 in early 2025. Wafers up from 0 to 1.5GW. Panels down a bit from 1.9 to 1.1.
August 21, 2025 at 5:16 AM
katemac.bsky.social
Investment managers *really* like the diversification - say, if all the US tech stocks crash or trade war chaos plays out, then the correlation with hurricanes & earthquakes is minimal. www.ft.com/content/fcaf...
From the FT: Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/fcaf9230-fed8-4d35-9626-7abec8cc95ea For investors, returns are less correlated with the broader financial market than are other high-yielding bonds. Aon’s Pennay said this lack of correlation has been the “primary” attraction of the catastrophe bond market for investors. Tanguy Touffut, chief executive of insurance technology firm Descartes Underwriting, said the increased issuance met asset managers’ appetite “to find a way to diversify” their investments at a time of market volatility.
August 19, 2025 at 6:37 AM
katemac.bsky.social
A LOT of issuance of catastrophe bonds + other insurance-linked securities; annual record was already reached by July this year! @steveevans.bsky.social
Screenshot of chart from artemis.bm showing cat bond + ILS issuance at $18-ish billion in July; all of 2024 was $17-ish billion. The number of individual deals was slightly lower, but will presumably exceed 2024 quite soon.
August 19, 2025 at 5:51 AM
katemac.bsky.social
It's from the bad site but I was chuffed that trade economist & talented explainer @baldwinre.bsky.social recently gave a shoutout to our EMPANADA post
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...
Tweet from Richard Baldwin: "Very good read! 👉POTUS trade EMPANADA deals:"Everyone Makes Promises And Never Actually Does Anything" https://buttondown.com/polycrisisdispatch/archive/taco-is-dead-long-live-empanada/ 👉Trump did the same in Trump I; with the US-China deal, and the empty promises by Junker.
August 19, 2025 at 5:03 AM
katemac.bsky.social
it just goes on and on
BBC headline saying "US warns of additional tariffs on India if Trump-Putin peace talks fail" and it's just all batshit crazy
August 14, 2025 at 10:20 AM
katemac.bsky.social
How long it takes various countries to replace US export markets.
Source: www.ft.com/content/1efd... originally: globaltradealert.org/reports/amer...
Bar chart showing the year in which various countries can replace US export markets. About 70 countries including Australia can do it in 2025; 140 can do it by 2039. In 2026 is Russia, Turkey; in 2027 is China, in 2028 is Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia. Germany and Italy are in 2030.
August 4, 2025 at 3:30 AM
katemac.bsky.social
So, the $550bn fund the US agreed with Japan is... a JET-P
“They came to us with the idea of a Japan-US partnership, where they are going to provide equity, credit guarantees and funding for major projects in the US,” Bessent said. He added that the foreign direct investment pledge is “all new capital.” The two countries’ leaders seem at times to be talking at cross purposes. The White House said over $550 billion will be invested under the direction of the US, and Trump said on social media that 90% of the profits will be given to America. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, on the other hand, said Japan would offer a mixture of investment, loans, and loan guarantees up to a maximum of $550 billion.
July 25, 2025 at 10:49 AM
katemac.bsky.social
Interesting claim in the FT splash about Trump's tariffs being something of a success = multinational brands will minimize tariff pass-on to US customers by spreading them among prices in other countries. www.ft.com/content/82e3...
Screenshot of FT story: "The cost of Trump’s tariffs are also not falling solely on American consumers, supply chain experts say, as international brands look to spread the impact of cost increases around the globe to minimise the impact on the US market.  Simon Geale, executive vice-president at Proxima, a supply chain consultancy owned by Bain & Company, said major brands such as Apple, Adidas and Mercedes would look to mitigate the impact of price increases. “Global brands can try and swallow some of the tariff cost through smart sourcing and cost savings but the majority will have to be distributed across other markets, because US consumers might swallow a 5 per cent increase, but not 20 or even 40,” Geale said."
July 16, 2025 at 6:29 AM
katemac.bsky.social
Copper demand is going to be deferred, but where and for how long? LME inventories are apparently low and copper is used in a lot of stuff. Would sustained reduced demand not imply require economic activity?
“Eventually, physical demand growth for copper worldwide will come under pressure, as downstream players seek to defer consumption,” said Tom Price, commodities analyst at Panmure Liberum. The US imports about 60 per cent of its copper, primarily from Chile, with the rest met by domestic mines or recycled scrap.
July 10, 2025 at 7:29 AM
katemac.bsky.social
Alternatively: the US is entering its steampunk era
"The description is all the more apt because the GOP appears to imagine that 19th-century energy sources will underpin US dominance of 21st century fields like artificial intelligence." - @liamdenning.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Steamship 4 stroke engine
July 8, 2025 at 12:03 PM
katemac.bsky.social
You won’t be surprised to hear that BRICS doesn’t have “policies”. But this particular string of Trump words underlines why low/middle income countries want to access & share emerging tech, esp on clean energy - and to hedge against mercurial US.
Screenshot of FT headline: “Donald Trump threatens extra 10% tariff over ‘anti-American’ Brics policies”
July 7, 2025 at 11:06 PM
katemac.bsky.social
This is so ugh
“Multiple advertising and agency executives speaking during this month’s Cannes advertising festival told the FT that brands were increasingly exploring hosting a business account and posting content on Reddit to boost the likelihood of their ads appearing in the responses of generative AI chatbots.”
June 26, 2025 at 5:01 AM
katemac.bsky.social
Quite a few holes can be picked in the argument, at least the degree to which it matters - but if you start with Obama’s refusal to appt WTO appellate (which really was a moment!) then the timeline works. also this:
The United States’ energy independence also gives it far less incentive to bear the burdens of enforcing global stability, especially in regions once vital to its energy security. Just 15 years ago, for instance, China, Europe, and the United States all depended heavily on Middle Eastern oil and so were communally inclined to protect strategic chokepoints of this trade, such as the Suez Canal. As this trade, such as the Suez Canal. As the United States has become energy independent, however, its motivation to provide this kind of service has waned. In a leaked Signal group chat in March, in which senior administration officials discussed matters of national security, Vice President JD Vance argued that Europe, not the United States, should bear the burden of countering Houthi threats to shipping in the Red Sea: “Three percent of U.S. trade runs through [the Suez Canal]; 40 percent of European trade does,” Vance pointed out. Although the United States did eventually carry out the strikes on the Houthis under debate in the chat, Vance’s blunt reasoning signaled a new indifference. Past administrations saw global stability as a shared interest; many in the current administration view it as someone else’s problem.
June 14, 2025 at 4:33 AM
katemac.bsky.social
4/ Fossil fuel import dependency is widespread, and expensive
Chart from Ember showing countries that depend on fossil fuel *imports* (ie most of them) and those that are net exporters (US, Indonesia, Nigeria, Russia).
June 13, 2025 at 10:25 PM
katemac.bsky.social
1/ crude oil demand is slowing, and production hasn’t returned to 2018 levels.
June 13, 2025 at 9:51 PM
katemac.bsky.social
This quote via @colbylsmith.bsky.social adds weight to my sense that news coverage/discourse isn't yet quite reckoning with how huge this all is: www.nytimes.com/2025/04/26/b...
U.S.-based investors appeared less concerned about a structural shift away from the country’s assets and more focused on the ways in which Mr. Trump could course-correct on his economic policies. International investors were consumed by the prospects of a “regime change” in the financial system and a “new world order,” Ms. Chang said.
April 28, 2025 at 2:32 AM
katemac.bsky.social
UAE investment pledges in Africa in recent years were far bigger than China's. (Couldn't find data for 2024; but there was that $35bn Egypt deal).
Bloomberg bar chart using fDi Markets data. China investment pledges in Africa 2.8bn 2022, 25.9bn 2023. UAE investment pledges: 2022: 44.5bn. 2023: 52.8bn
April 25, 2025 at 10:29 AM