John Liu
@jyliu.bsky.social
Equity PM, interests cyclicals, tech, biotech, international. Coffee too, for drinking.
Don’t know of good retail surveys. Banks and brokers watch client activity, sellside might report on that.
April 27, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Don’t know of good retail surveys. Banks and brokers watch client activity, sellside might report on that.
B of A’s institutional investor surveys are monthly and have been run for decades.
April 26, 2025 at 3:11 PM
B of A’s institutional investor surveys are monthly and have been run for decades.
were respondents line workers or company bosses?
April 11, 2025 at 2:57 PM
were respondents line workers or company bosses?
4.0 is nothing, you don’t even wake up
March 17, 2025 at 5:14 AM
4.0 is nothing, you don’t even wake up
Bessent’s breezy baton passing is going to be more like the Bataan Death March.
Long before we see material change in global supply chains, the markets will get nasty.
end/n
Long before we see material change in global supply chains, the markets will get nasty.
end/n
March 15, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Bessent’s breezy baton passing is going to be more like the Bataan Death March.
Long before we see material change in global supply chains, the markets will get nasty.
end/n
Long before we see material change in global supply chains, the markets will get nasty.
end/n
When will it start? Not until companies have confidence and certainty on what tariff/trade policy will be in coming decades - that years of work/$billions of investment won’t be undone.
But no business can be confident in anything with this erratic, impulsive, disordered government.
4/n
But no business can be confident in anything with this erratic, impulsive, disordered government.
4/n
March 15, 2025 at 2:57 PM
When will it start? Not until companies have confidence and certainty on what tariff/trade policy will be in coming decades - that years of work/$billions of investment won’t be undone.
But no business can be confident in anything with this erratic, impulsive, disordered government.
4/n
But no business can be confident in anything with this erratic, impulsive, disordered government.
4/n
How much will it cost? I think more than what is (planned) to be spent on AI capex. Many $ trillions.
From what money? These are typically industries with single digit EBIT margins, already levered, 10% ROIC.
2/n
From what money? These are typically industries with single digit EBIT margins, already levered, 10% ROIC.
2/n
March 15, 2025 at 2:45 PM
How much will it cost? I think more than what is (planned) to be spent on AI capex. Many $ trillions.
From what money? These are typically industries with single digit EBIT margins, already levered, 10% ROIC.
2/n
From what money? These are typically industries with single digit EBIT margins, already levered, 10% ROIC.
2/n
Inline guide, sleepy call, rote questions
February 27, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Inline guide, sleepy call, rote questions
Threads is just overflow from Instagram. Not a place for serious discussions.
February 26, 2025 at 6:14 AM
Threads is just overflow from Instagram. Not a place for serious discussions.
It is a real threat. When DeepSeek Reasoner is competitive with OpenAI o1, cost millions not tens/hundreds of millions to train, can run on Huawei AI chips, and is available via cloud at 5% the price/token of o1, or free download . . .
January 24, 2025 at 8:56 PM
It is a real threat. When DeepSeek Reasoner is competitive with OpenAI o1, cost millions not tens/hundreds of millions to train, can run on Huawei AI chips, and is available via cloud at 5% the price/token of o1, or free download . . .
Seems reasonable but irrelevant.
January 24, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Seems reasonable but irrelevant.
Chinese insurers will have a very different investment portfolio than Western insurers, where equity is typically 5% of investment assets. Hope their risk exposure is also very different.
January 24, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Chinese insurers will have a very different investment portfolio than Western insurers, where equity is typically 5% of investment assets. Hope their risk exposure is also very different.
I usually get terrible espresso in specialty cafes, and decent espresso in standard bistros.
January 23, 2025 at 4:42 PM
I usually get terrible espresso in specialty cafes, and decent espresso in standard bistros.
I don’t hate Biden. He did a great job while he still could, and then did the best he could with his diminishing capabilities. I am angry at his “inner circle” who didn’t tell him the hard truth.
January 14, 2025 at 6:52 PM
I don’t hate Biden. He did a great job while he still could, and then did the best he could with his diminishing capabilities. I am angry at his “inner circle” who didn’t tell him the hard truth.