Recession will be priced in at 4200
18X lower SP500 2025/26 est

CRWV $19BN mkt cap on $1.9 BN 2024 revs. 10X P/S.
MSFT’s 2024 AI rev around $5-8BN est. So is MSFT’s AI biz only worth $50-80BN?
Either CRWV undervalued, MSFT overvalued, or CRWV’s AI biz different from MSFT’s AI biz.
To believe the 3rd, have to think MSFT’s own AI apps are a lot of rev.

Bessent claims US economy “detox” won’t mean recession, because baton will pass from government spending to private sector.

How long for companies to rebuild global supply chains in US? I think decades to build factories, develop workforce, automate enough to offset US wages, recreate IP.

1/n

Now the tug of war. Old-economy stocks, under-owned, not expensive, have lagged badly, but quite affected by tariffs-recession. Vs. Tech/AI stocks, way over-owned, sharp pullback makes them look inexpensive, supposedly less affected by tariffs-recession but expectations very high.

There is no “Trump put”. He is Tariffman, tariffs are his painless answer to everything, without tariffs he has no leverage, no power (econ-wise). He can’t give them up. He can pause and pretend, but the market is wise to that game, and tariff uncertainty is as bad as tariffs.

List of negatives last few weeks GDP Nowcast
Real pers spend
Pending home sales
UE claims
New home sales
Consmr confidence
Crypto/Trump trades
Inflation expects
1Q est revisions
US markets vs int’l
Mega stocks vs broad mkt

Have I missed anything

I am reading that the global LNG market will be in tight supply, i.e. attractive for producers, for years.

What if a US-forced “peace” in Ukraine results in Russian gas freely reaching Europe again?

I’d think LNG could be in glut. An own goal by the US.

Trump seems fixated on rare earths in Ukraine, Russia, etc. Maybe tell him rare earths aren't actually rare; the #2, 3, 4, 7 RE reserves are in Brazil, India, Australia, USA; that the barriers to US RE industry are financing, environmental regs, and Chinese dumping, all very solvable.

California homeowners insurance premiums likely to double or more.

1. Premiums were already rising fast.
2. New rules will allow more increases (model-based underwriting, recovery of reinsurance costs).
3. FAIR plan assessments for Los Angeles fire losses.

1/n

The year-end ritual. Went through charts. Lots of.

Conclusion: it’s either Dec 1999 or Dec 1998.

Which?

If you were there, did 2024 feel more like 1999 or 1998?

Trying to trust my memory.

Bluesky needs, really needs, a “bookmark” feature or other way to save and locate posts. The acceleration in content volume/quality demand it. Now, someone, tell me it’s already here you dummy.

Help me think this thru.

What pct of Trump’s policies (tariffs, deports, tax cuts, other) are markets now discounting, in yr opinion?

E.g. “20% of promised tariffs, 10% of deports, 50% of tax cuts” - or what do you judge? And why?