People who may be traveling post Thanksgiving should be watching this very closely. More updates from me will be provided as appropriate. Stay tuned #weather #usweather #winterwx #winter #snow #winterstorm #snowstorm

While there is still a significant amount of disagreement on the exact specifics, there is certainly potential for this to be a very powerful system. In addition, because of the timeframe, it is certainly possible for post Thanksgiving travel back home to be significantly impacted

Open the door for winter storms across these areas and across the western US. Attached here is the latest runs of the ensembles from the GEFS/EPS/CMCE, as well as the Euro AIFS. Regardless of what you use, there is a significant signal on all the guidance atm

I personally lean toward the GEFS solution and the EPS solutions. However anything can still happen given the timeframe we’re at. But to wrap this up: Expect a slow then eventually more substantial increase in storm activity across the CONUS as we move through the next few weeks.

On the 12z CMCE, a more stronger -EPO and stronger -PNA as a result would support a further S storm track, putting our snowstorm risk possibly more into the C to maybe S Plains into the Great Lakes and our severe weather risk more into Dixie Alley, into the OH/TN Valleys into the southeast US

Looking at the other two ensembles, there is a similar idea presented. On the 18z GEFS solution, snowstorm potential looks higher across the Rockies/N Plains and Upper Midwest region, with Severe thunderstorm potential higher across the S Plains and possibly portions of Dixie Alley

and hence major winter storms cannot be ruled out in this period. We will need to watch this closely, especially since this change could happen Thanksgiving week

This will not only lead to bigger, more powerful storm systems, but the -EPO in particular should allow a period of cross polar flow to overtake the country. This would lead to substantially colder temperatures and cold air being available…

As we move into Late November, right around Thanksgiving timeframe, our pattern is likely going to undergo more significant changes. A -EPO/-AO/-PNA combination as well as possibly a -NAO and the Pacific ridge retracting a bit should allow a substantial increase in upper lvl energy across the west.

Right now the winter storm potential seems the best across the western US, particularly in the higher elevations and across the N Plains to maybe portions of the C Plains and into the Upper Midwest.

This should lead to a ramp up in rain/thunderstorm activity, with severe thunderstorms a possibility. More to come on this potential soon. Arctic ridging should lead to more cold air being available for each storm system on the cold side, which will need to be monitored for snowstorm potential

However as we near the middle to especially end of next week, things should start ramping up significantly. Our 2nd trough should start ejecting across the central portion of the country, and overlapping with increasing Gulf moisture.

and not leading to much of anything significant precipitation wise except some lighter rain and snow across portions of the central US into the OH valley and portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

As we move into early next week, a series of troughs/storm systems will eject, first across the western US, then eventually into the central and maybe portions of the eastern US. My current thinking is the Arctic ridging/blocking will lead to the first system deamplifying…