It is still possible that the Budget itself is not as bad as feared, or at least that uncertainty eases sufficiently to allow some hiring and investment to resume. The reaction in the bond markets will also be crucial.

For now, though, private sector activity appears to be on hold. (5/5)

The manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector recovered a little in October, led by the restart at JLR. But overall GDP growth is still likely to have been subdued, mainly due to pre-Budget uncertainty... (4/5)

The 0.1% monthly fall in UK GDP in September was due in part to the disruption at Jaguar Land Rover - if manufacturing of motor vehicles had been flat rather than slumped by 28.6%, GDP would have risen by 0.1%. However, that would still have been a feeble rate... (3/5)

The monthly data are not very reliable, but it is striking that GDP fell (before rounding) in every month of the third quarter 👇 (2/5)

Ps. I think he's a terrible person, but imagine he was someone else!

All fair points, but fixable. Just add a legsl requirement for an annual mileage check. Allow an intra-year check if people sell their car (just like a meter reading if you move house). And I'm not sure 'clocking' is a thing anymore!

The hope is presumably that the markets are impressed by the willingness to break manifesto commitments in order to balance the books. This could sharply lower the government's cost of borrowing and so reduce the need for further tax rises.

But that's quite a gamble... 🤔

(2/2)

Annual mileage check, similar to an MOT... No fancy tech required!

My guess is that Reeves will fix this in this Budget in two ways...

1⃣ end the 'temporary' 5p cut in fuel duty, raising c£3bn a year

2⃣ announce plans to introduce pay-per-mile EV taxes in 2028-29 (so at least this won't happen straightaway), initially raising c£2bn

(3/3)

One point most miss is that the OBR's forecasts *already* assume that the Government will raise an extra £4.6bn in 2029-30 from ending the freeze on fuel duty and reversing the 'temporary' 5p cut.

So if she doesn't do that, the Budget shortfall would be £4.6bn bigger...

(2/3)

I'll take that as a compliment... 🤓