Julian Jessop
@julianhjessop.bsky.social
Independent economist. Likes charts. IEA Economics Fellow. Schools speaker. Diploma in Law. FRSA. COYG. Views here mine only. More on website at www.julianhjessop.com. Also on substack at https://substack.com/@julianhjessop
FYI, the bond markets - quite rightly - are not buying Labour's spin on the Budget tax U-turn...
Gilt yields closed up between 8 and 16 basis points on the day.
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Gilt yields closed up between 8 and 16 basis points on the day.
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
November 14, 2025 at 5:40 PM
FYI, the bond markets - quite rightly - are not buying Labour's spin on the Budget tax U-turn...
Gilt yields closed up between 8 and 16 basis points on the day.
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Gilt yields closed up between 8 and 16 basis points on the day.
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
ICYMI, here are some thoughts on the latest twists and turns in the Budget saga (only 12 more days of this to go... 🙄)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/this-is-no...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/this-is-no...
November 14, 2025 at 4:28 PM
ICYMI, here are some thoughts on the latest twists and turns in the Budget saga (only 12 more days of this to go... 🙄)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/this-is-no...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/this-is-no...
Really important chart from the ONS... 🤓
The flipside of the fall in payroll jobs is that the UK's performance on labour productivity may actually have improved sharply - just as the OBR is about to downgrade its estimates for trend growth in the Budget 🙄
The flipside of the fall in payroll jobs is that the UK's performance on labour productivity may actually have improved sharply - just as the OBR is about to downgrade its estimates for trend growth in the Budget 🙄
November 13, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Really important chart from the ONS... 🤓
The flipside of the fall in payroll jobs is that the UK's performance on labour productivity may actually have improved sharply - just as the OBR is about to downgrade its estimates for trend growth in the Budget 🙄
The flipside of the fall in payroll jobs is that the UK's performance on labour productivity may actually have improved sharply - just as the OBR is about to downgrade its estimates for trend growth in the Budget 🙄
ICYMI, here was my take on this morning's UK GDP data... 🤔
TL;DR - Growth fizzles out as Budget looms
The latest news on the UK economy confirms that the apparently strong growth in the first half of the year (which was still weaker than in H1 2024) has already fizzled out... (1/5)
TL;DR - Growth fizzles out as Budget looms
The latest news on the UK economy confirms that the apparently strong growth in the first half of the year (which was still weaker than in H1 2024) has already fizzled out... (1/5)
November 13, 2025 at 3:20 PM
ICYMI, here was my take on this morning's UK GDP data... 🤔
TL;DR - Growth fizzles out as Budget looms
The latest news on the UK economy confirms that the apparently strong growth in the first half of the year (which was still weaker than in H1 2024) has already fizzled out... (1/5)
TL;DR - Growth fizzles out as Budget looms
The latest news on the UK economy confirms that the apparently strong growth in the first half of the year (which was still weaker than in H1 2024) has already fizzled out... (1/5)
Good piece by Tom Calver on the UK's fiscal mess (and I'm not just saying that because he was kind enough to quote me 😉)...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
How much of our economic mess is Rachel Reeves’s fault?
The chancellor was at pains last week to blame everyone else for the tax rises she is likely to announce in the budget
www.thetimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Good piece by Tom Calver on the UK's fiscal mess (and I'm not just saying that because he was kind enough to quote me 😉)...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
📢 Amidst all the talk about increases in tax *rates*, don't forget the other way in which Rachel Reeves is likely to raise a lot more from income tax - extending the freeze on *thresholds*.
Even she said that this would "hurt working people" when ruling it out last year... 👇
Even she said that this would "hurt working people" when ruling it out last year... 👇
November 8, 2025 at 9:51 AM
📢 Amidst all the talk about increases in tax *rates*, don't forget the other way in which Rachel Reeves is likely to raise a lot more from income tax - extending the freeze on *thresholds*.
Even she said that this would "hurt working people" when ruling it out last year... 👇
Even she said that this would "hurt working people" when ruling it out last year... 👇
FYI, Musk is not actually going to get $1 trillion...
That figure assumes he hits some nearly impossible targets over the next ten years, and would mainly be paid in shares anyway.
But if does hit those targets, creating many times $1 trillion in value for shareholders, why not? 🤷♂️
That figure assumes he hits some nearly impossible targets over the next ten years, and would mainly be paid in shares anyway.
But if does hit those targets, creating many times $1 trillion in value for shareholders, why not? 🤷♂️
November 8, 2025 at 8:02 AM
FYI, Musk is not actually going to get $1 trillion...
That figure assumes he hits some nearly impossible targets over the next ten years, and would mainly be paid in shares anyway.
But if does hit those targets, creating many times $1 trillion in value for shareholders, why not? 🤷♂️
That figure assumes he hits some nearly impossible targets over the next ten years, and would mainly be paid in shares anyway.
But if does hit those targets, creating many times $1 trillion in value for shareholders, why not? 🤷♂️
FWIW, my main takeaway from this piece - once again - is that No.10 has taken control of the Budget (and probably had to do so).
This will be just as much Keir Starmer's gamble as Rachel Reeves', and they will stand, or fall, together...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
This will be just as much Keir Starmer's gamble as Rachel Reeves', and they will stand, or fall, together...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Breakfasts at No 10: buttering up Labour MPs to avoid a budget backlash
Downing Street has been preparing MPs for going back on its manifesto pledge and raising income tax
www.theguardian.com
November 8, 2025 at 12:20 AM
FWIW, my main takeaway from this piece - once again - is that No.10 has taken control of the Budget (and probably had to do so).
This will be just as much Keir Starmer's gamble as Rachel Reeves', and they will stand, or fall, together...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
This will be just as much Keir Starmer's gamble as Rachel Reeves', and they will stand, or fall, together...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Looks like there's just enough public support for a pay-per-mile EV tax to ensure it makes it into the Budget... 👍
November 6, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Looks like there's just enough public support for a pay-per-mile EV tax to ensure it makes it into the Budget... 👍
"Rachel Reeves plans to raise income tax..."
No longer a surprise, but this proposal (2p on all income tax rates, partially offset by 2p off employee NI for lower earners) blows a lot of political capital for not a lot of revenue gain (just £6bn?) (1/2)
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
No longer a surprise, but this proposal (2p on all income tax rates, partially offset by 2p off employee NI for lower earners) blows a lot of political capital for not a lot of revenue gain (just £6bn?) (1/2)
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Rachel Reeves plans to raise income tax in upcoming budget
The chancellor’s submission to Office for Budget Responsibility strongly indicates she will be reversing a key manifesto pledge this month
www.thetimes.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:04 PM
"Rachel Reeves plans to raise income tax..."
No longer a surprise, but this proposal (2p on all income tax rates, partially offset by 2p off employee NI for lower earners) blows a lot of political capital for not a lot of revenue gain (just £6bn?) (1/2)
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
No longer a surprise, but this proposal (2p on all income tax rates, partially offset by 2p off employee NI for lower earners) blows a lot of political capital for not a lot of revenue gain (just £6bn?) (1/2)
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
FYI, I've pulled together some thoughts on pay-per-mile charging for EVs... 🤔
open.substack.com/pub/julianhj...
open.substack.com/pub/julianhj...
November 6, 2025 at 10:23 PM
FYI, I've pulled together some thoughts on pay-per-mile charging for EVs... 🤔
open.substack.com/pub/julianhj...
open.substack.com/pub/julianhj...
Won't be popular, but pay-per-mile charges for EVs would be a fair way to replace the revenues that are being lost from the transition from petrol and diesel.
They would also help to fill the gap if Reeves decides not to raise fuel duty in the Budget... (1/3)
They would also help to fill the gap if Reeves decides not to raise fuel duty in the Budget... (1/3)
November 6, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Won't be popular, but pay-per-mile charges for EVs would be a fair way to replace the revenues that are being lost from the transition from petrol and diesel.
They would also help to fill the gap if Reeves decides not to raise fuel duty in the Budget... (1/3)
They would also help to fill the gap if Reeves decides not to raise fuel duty in the Budget... (1/3)
Just a thought...
Rachel Reeves' speech today has made this week's interest rate decision even more... interesting.
Will the Bank of England's MPC be willing to anticipate a tight Budget and cut on Thursday?
(I would...)
Rachel Reeves' speech today has made this week's interest rate decision even more... interesting.
Will the Bank of England's MPC be willing to anticipate a tight Budget and cut on Thursday?
(I would...)
November 4, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Just a thought...
Rachel Reeves' speech today has made this week's interest rate decision even more... interesting.
Will the Bank of England's MPC be willing to anticipate a tight Budget and cut on Thursday?
(I would...)
Rachel Reeves' speech today has made this week's interest rate decision even more... interesting.
Will the Bank of England's MPC be willing to anticipate a tight Budget and cut on Thursday?
(I would...)
FYI, here's a summary of my thoughts on Rachel Reeves' speech today... 🤔
(polite version 😉)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...
(polite version 😉)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...
November 4, 2025 at 6:29 PM
FYI, here's a summary of my thoughts on Rachel Reeves' speech today... 🤔
(polite version 😉)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...
(polite version 😉)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...
Clearest signal yet of broad-based tax rises in the Budget...
"we all have to contribute to that effort"
Rachel Reeves
"we all have to contribute to that effort"
Rachel Reeves
November 4, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Clearest signal yet of broad-based tax rises in the Budget...
"we all have to contribute to that effort"
Rachel Reeves
"we all have to contribute to that effort"
Rachel Reeves
FWIW, here's the latest iteration of my 'Budget Scorecard', with three scenarios for the size of the hole to be filled (£17bn, £34bn and £50bn) and a set of tax options for each.
Obviously only 'indicative', and there are many other permutations... 🤔
Obviously only 'indicative', and there are many other permutations... 🤔
November 3, 2025 at 6:39 PM
FWIW, here's the latest iteration of my 'Budget Scorecard', with three scenarios for the size of the hole to be filled (£17bn, £34bn and £50bn) and a set of tax options for each.
Obviously only 'indicative', and there are many other permutations... 🤔
Obviously only 'indicative', and there are many other permutations... 🤔
FYI, I've fleshed out some recent comments on Tesco bashing into a blog... 🤔✍️
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/its-time-t...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/its-time-t...
November 3, 2025 at 10:04 AM
FYI, I've fleshed out some recent comments on Tesco bashing into a blog... 🤔✍️
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/its-time-t...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/its-time-t...
FWIW, here's my first stab at a 'Budget scorecard', with the amounts that Rachel Reeves might have to raise in tax in three scenarios, and some ideas about how she might do it... 🤔
Obviously just indicative, and there are many other permutations! I'll refine over time...
Obviously just indicative, and there are many other permutations! I'll refine over time...
October 29, 2025 at 6:27 PM
FWIW, here's my first stab at a 'Budget scorecard', with the amounts that Rachel Reeves might have to raise in tax in three scenarios, and some ideas about how she might do it... 🤔
Obviously just indicative, and there are many other permutations! I'll refine over time...
Obviously just indicative, and there are many other permutations! I'll refine over time...
FYI, these reports (i.e. leaks) of a 0.3% productivity downgrade are (presumably) coming from Treasury/No10, not the OBR, so may well be some 'expectations management' here.
They are also 'pre-measures', so still time for the OBR to score more reforms, allowing Reeves to claim a small 'win'...
They are also 'pre-measures', so still time for the OBR to score more reforms, allowing Reeves to claim a small 'win'...
October 28, 2025 at 8:50 AM
FYI, these reports (i.e. leaks) of a 0.3% productivity downgrade are (presumably) coming from Treasury/No10, not the OBR, so may well be some 'expectations management' here.
They are also 'pre-measures', so still time for the OBR to score more reforms, allowing Reeves to claim a small 'win'...
They are also 'pre-measures', so still time for the OBR to score more reforms, allowing Reeves to claim a small 'win'...
"Reeves faces £20bn hit to UK public finances from productivity downgrade"
IMHO, Reeves is unlucky that the OBR has decided to make this (overdue?) change now, but it's also telling that it doesn't think the prospects have improved under Labour... 🤔
www.ft.com/content/0e2d...
IMHO, Reeves is unlucky that the OBR has decided to make this (overdue?) change now, but it's also telling that it doesn't think the prospects have improved under Labour... 🤔
www.ft.com/content/0e2d...
Reeves faces £20bn hit to UK public finances from productivity downgrade
Bigger than expected reduction in OBR forecast deals blow to chancellor ahead of Budget
www.ft.com
October 28, 2025 at 1:33 AM
"Reeves faces £20bn hit to UK public finances from productivity downgrade"
IMHO, Reeves is unlucky that the OBR has decided to make this (overdue?) change now, but it's also telling that it doesn't think the prospects have improved under Labour... 🤔
www.ft.com/content/0e2d...
IMHO, Reeves is unlucky that the OBR has decided to make this (overdue?) change now, but it's also telling that it doesn't think the prospects have improved under Labour... 🤔
www.ft.com/content/0e2d...
Chart of the Day 🤓
Until recently the UK National Living Wage was set at a relatively realistic level, minimising the costs especially in terms of lost jobs.
But we're now catching up with France where the unemployment rate is 7.5%, or 18.1% for young people... 🤔
Until recently the UK National Living Wage was set at a relatively realistic level, minimising the costs especially in terms of lost jobs.
But we're now catching up with France where the unemployment rate is 7.5%, or 18.1% for young people... 🤔
October 25, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Chart of the Day 🤓
Until recently the UK National Living Wage was set at a relatively realistic level, minimising the costs especially in terms of lost jobs.
But we're now catching up with France where the unemployment rate is 7.5%, or 18.1% for young people... 🤔
Until recently the UK National Living Wage was set at a relatively realistic level, minimising the costs especially in terms of lost jobs.
But we're now catching up with France where the unemployment rate is 7.5%, or 18.1% for young people... 🤔
FYI, I've blogged on Rachel Reeves' plan to make it even more expensive to employ young people.... 🤔
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-govern...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-govern...
October 25, 2025 at 4:27 PM
FYI, I've blogged on Rachel Reeves' plan to make it even more expensive to employ young people.... 🤔
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-govern...
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-govern...
ICYMI, under Labour, it takes £10 million of investment just to create one job... 😉
October 24, 2025 at 10:57 PM
ICYMI, under Labour, it takes £10 million of investment just to create one job... 😉
Every YouGov poll ever?
When asked whether they would like loads of free stuff paid for by taxes on other people, 75% of Brits and 96% of Green voters said "yes"... 😉
When asked whether they would like loads of free stuff paid for by taxes on other people, 75% of Brits and 96% of Green voters said "yes"... 😉
October 24, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Every YouGov poll ever?
When asked whether they would like loads of free stuff paid for by taxes on other people, 75% of Brits and 96% of Green voters said "yes"... 😉
When asked whether they would like loads of free stuff paid for by taxes on other people, 75% of Brits and 96% of Green voters said "yes"... 😉
A bit more on this morning's UK PMI 🤔
(TL;DR - labour market and business confidence weak but not collapsing, at least not yet...)
1⃣ "jobs cut for 13th straight month, but rate of decline eases"
(TL;DR - labour market and business confidence weak but not collapsing, at least not yet...)
1⃣ "jobs cut for 13th straight month, but rate of decline eases"
October 24, 2025 at 2:08 PM
A bit more on this morning's UK PMI 🤔
(TL;DR - labour market and business confidence weak but not collapsing, at least not yet...)
1⃣ "jobs cut for 13th straight month, but rate of decline eases"
(TL;DR - labour market and business confidence weak but not collapsing, at least not yet...)
1⃣ "jobs cut for 13th straight month, but rate of decline eases"