Juliana Taube
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julianataube.bsky.social
Juliana Taube
@julianataube.bsky.social
570 followers 200 following 25 posts
phd student @ georgetown • aspiring infectious disease modeler • she/her
jtaube.github.io
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julianataube.bsky.social
3️⃣ During the pandemic & at baseline, younger adults, men, & Hispanic & Black individuals have more contacts & are at greater disease risk

These geographic & social differences in risk can help target public health resources & surveillance 📢

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Figure showing contact by age, gender, race or ethnicity, and setting during the pandemic and at baseline (A) Mean pandemic and baseline non-household contact rate by age. Each point represents a county-age category. Analysis was limited to counties with five or more responses per age category per week. Contact decreases with age. (B) Mean pandemic and baseline non-household contact rate by gender. Each point represents a county-gender category. Analysis was limited to counties with five or more responses per gender category per week. Contact is higher in men than women. (C) Mean pandemic and baseline non-household contact rate by race or ethnicity. Each point represents a state-race or ethnicity category. Analysis was limited to states with ten or more responses per race or ethnicity category per week. All racial and ethnic categories are non-Hispanic unless labelled otherwise. Other denotes individuals who reported their race as American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, or other, or as falling in multiple categories. Contact is lowest in Asian respondents, and highest in individuals reporting other or multiple race categories. (D) Mean pandemic and baseline non-household contact rate by setting. Each point represents a county-setting. Analysis was limited to counties with ten or more responses per setting per week. Contact is highest at work, followed by shopping, then social settings.
September 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
2️⃣ Contact patterns vary across US counties regardless of disease 🌎

Based on population density, we expected urban counties 🏙️ to have higher contact rates than rural ones 🚜

This is true at baseline, but not during the pandemic, when urban areas were more responsive to gathering restrictions

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Figure showing spatial heterogeneity and urban–rural gradient of pandemic and estimated non-pandemic contact (A) Mean number of non-household contacts per person per day for each county relative to the national mean (8⋅7 contacts per person per day) during the COVID-19 pandemic (Oct 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021). There was high spatial heterogeneity in contact, even within states, which was fairly consistent across time. Counties shaded in grey did not have a sufficient sample size to estimate contact. (B) Map of inferred mean number of non-household contacts per person per day for each county relative to the national mean (10⋅9 contacts per person per day) in a non-pandemic scenario. Spatial heterogeneity in contact remains high, although which counties have values above and below the national mean has shifted compared with the pattern observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. (C) The mean contact rate (non-household contacts) for each county decreases with increasing urbanicity during the pandemic, but increases with urbanicity during inferred non-pandemic times. Only counties with ten or more responses per week each week (from Oct 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021) are included. NCHS class describes the urbanicity of the county, with 1 indicating a large central metropolitan area and 6 representing rural, non-core areas. NCHS=National Center for Health Statistics.
September 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
1️⃣ Early in the pandemic, contact varied over time 📆

However, contact and COVID-19 incidence were anti-correlated during this period (when disease went ⬆️, contacts went ⬇️)

Thus, after controlling for disease, there was no longer any systematic variation in contact over time

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Figure showing contact dynamics observed over time during the COVID-19 pandemic and estimated non-pandemic contact dynamics, by county (A) Mean number of daily non-household contacts for individual counties over time during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact is presented as a Z score relative to each county’s mean to allow comparison between time series despite the large range of mean contact values across counties. Each line represents a county and is coloured by mean contact relative to the national mean. The black line shows the Z score of the centred 3-week rolling average of national COVID-19 case incidence for context. Counties had similar contact dynamics over time: most counties had higher contact during the summer of 2020, and all had lower contact during the winter of 2020–21. Counties in which contact decreased in the summer of 2020 were typically in states that had a higher incidence of COVID-19 during that time. (B) Mean contact rate (non- household contacts) in the absence of disease (baseline; slate) was effectively constant over time, compared with observed contact during the pandemic (teal), across a diverse set of counties. We controlled for disease using a linear regression model that predicts contact from national case incidence, state and county policy data, and county vaccination coverage. This analysis is restricted to Oct 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, to encompass a full wave of COVID-19. Shaded areas represent 1 SD above and below the fitted contact value or estimated non-pandemic value.
September 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
For this reason, we model disease spread on networks, where some people have more connections than others.

And theory suggests that the people with more contacts are more likely to get infected 🤒

Thus, understanding contact patterns can help us better estimate individual & population risk!

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Figure from Bansal et al. (2007) showing that infected individuals have higher degree (more contacts) than susceptible individuals (uninfected) in a model of disease spread incorporating variation in contact patterns
September 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
Initially, disease models relied on the homogeneous mixing assumption, where each person has the same number of contacts 👯‍♀️ #twins

But from past surveys (eg POLYMOD) we know that there's actually lots of variation in # of contacts across individuals & this heterogeneity affects disease spread! 🤓

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Histogram showing that the number of contacts reported by individuals in the POLYMOD study is heavy-tailed, meaning most people have relatively few contacts (~10) but a few have a lot of contacts (> 75).
September 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
Our paper on US contact patterns is now published in The Lancet Digital Health!

doi.org/10.1016/j.la...

Thanks to my brilliant coauthors @zsusswein.bsky.social, @vcolizza.bsky.social, & @bansallab.bsky.social for their help with this project.

Read on for an overview of our findings... 🧵
Screenshot of the paper titled "Characterising non-household contact patterns relevant to respiratory transmission in the USA: analysis of a cross-sectional survey"
September 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
Ever read a paper & think, "wow 🤩 that was well written"?

Learn how to write your own *wow* paper with @midas-network.bsky.social trainees on Thurs 9/25 @ noon ET.

We'll hear from @jdrakephd.bsky.social on strategies for crafting & communicating a good story.

🔗 georgetown.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Flyer advertising upcoming MIDAS Trainee Network event on How to Write a Strong Manuscript. The event will take place on Thurs 9/25 at 12pm ET with a presentation from Dr. John Drake from the University of Georgia, followed by Q&A and discussion. Register at: https://georgetown.zoom.us/meeting/register/rTEZP0pSQIqlLv_EyquGgQ
September 11, 2025 at 6:03 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
📊🤔 Are your scientific figures cluttered or confusing?

Join @midas-network.bsky.social trainees & speaker @jessica-davis.bsky.social at 11AM ET on Aug 1 to practice designing visuals that effectively tell your story.

Bring a figure draft to revise!

Register: tinyurl.com/MIDASFigures
Graphic advertising upcoming MIDAS Trainee Workshop on designing clear and compelling figures with guest speaker Dr. Jessica Davis. The workshop will take place at 11am ET on August 1, 2025. To register, go to tinyurl.com/MIDASFigures.
July 21, 2025 at 6:32 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
Want to make your research presentations more compelling and accessible? Join @midas-network.bsky.social trainees for a workshop on how to give an effective research talk!

We'll hear from @anaisabelbento.bsky.social on how to tailor talks for different audiences & then apply what we've learned.
Poster for event titled "How to Give an Engaging and Technical Research Talk" on June 6, 2025 at 1pm EDT. The speaker is Dr. Ana Bento from Cornell University and the slide contains a QR code and link to register.
May 27, 2025 at 2:19 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
Are you struggling with post-PhD plans? Unsure about academia vs. industry positions amidst changes in science funding?

Join the @midas-network.bsky.social Trainee Network on Tues 4/8 at 4PM ET to hear from others who have navigated this transition!

🔗 Register at umd.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Poster adveristing upcoming event hosted by the MIDAS Network Trainee Committee titled "Almost PhinisheD: Exploring Post-PhD Options in a Dynamic Funding Landscape." The event is on Tuesday, April 8 at 4pm ET on Zoom and a link and qr code are provided for registration: https://tinyurl.com/almostphinished
April 2, 2025 at 6:37 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
There’s a lot going on right now & it can be hard to get work done! We’re offering a virtual space for @midas-network.bsky.social trainees to make some writing progress on Monday, Feb 10, at 2pm ET. Join us for an hour to write alongside supportive peers! Register: notredame.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Poster advertising a writing group for MIDAS Network trainees. It reads: "Procrastinating on your dissertation, grant proposal, or manuscript? Meet other PhD students, and postdocs for a writing hour. February 10 at 2pm ET" and contains a link and QR code to register.
February 4, 2025 at 2:56 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
The @MIDAS_Network Trainee Committee is holding a virtual event for trainees to practice upcoming conference presentations in a low-stakes environment! Join us on Thursday, November 7th at 12 ET. Register to speak at: tinyurl.com/MIDASPRACTICE.
October 21, 2024 at 3:52 PM
julianataube.bsky.social
Are you a new graduate student?

The MIDAS Trainee Committee will be hosting a virtual panel on Managing Your Time and Your Advisor as a New Graduate Student on Oct. 7th at 12 PM Eastern Time.

Join us! Register here: t.co/FY0V5eXql8
Flyer with details about upcoming MIDAS panel which will cover managing your time in grad school, setting and prioritizing research goals, and establishing a strong working relationship with your advisor.
October 3, 2024 at 1:45 PM