Jonathan Thomas
@jtmigratory.bsky.social
Senior Fellow & the Migration Researcher at the Social Market Foundation.
Many Interests but only post about migration. You have to draw the line somewhere.
Many Interests but only post about migration. You have to draw the line somewhere.
Excellent two minute explainer from the US President in this video interview of the benefits of attracting international students. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...
Trump doubles down on plan for 600,000 Chinese student visas despite MAGA backlash
President Donald Trump defends his plan to offer 600,000 visas to Chinese students during Fox News interview, facing criticism from conservative circles.
www.foxnews.com
November 14, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Excellent two minute explainer from the US President in this video interview of the benefits of attracting international students. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...
My published letter to The Economist in response to its recent article on asylum seeker right to work in UK.
www.economist.com/letters/2025...
The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
www.economist.com/letters/2025...
The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
Should work restrictions on asylum-seekers in Britain be reformed? | Oct 4th 2025 Edition
Also this week, America’s relations with Israel, the US constitution, cosy crime, the Democrats
www.economist.com
October 3, 2025 at 11:12 AM
My published letter to The Economist in response to its recent article on asylum seeker right to work in UK.
www.economist.com/letters/2025...
The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
www.economist.com/letters/2025...
The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
When I wrote about the looming fight in the UK over Indefinite Leave to Remain - back in May for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - it was a niche topic.
Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins.
Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.
Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins.
Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.
UK immigration policy is dancing to a Dutch tune after a University of Amsterdam paper made the question an economic issue
UK Immigration Policy Is Dancing to a Dutch Economic Tune
A University of Amsterdam research paper has made the question of migrants a financial issue.
bloom.bg
October 2, 2025 at 10:31 PM
When I wrote about the looming fight in the UK over Indefinite Leave to Remain - back in May for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - it was a niche topic.
Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins.
Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.
Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins.
Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.
My take on yet another change of Home Secretary.
And in defence of the last one.
And in defence of the last one.
Britain has a new Home Secretary - and Shabana Mahmood has been tasked with talking and acting tough on immigration.
In his latest blog, @jtmigratory.bsky.social asks what Mahmood can do compared to her predecessor - and whether this is about real experience, or just a changing of narrative.
In his latest blog, @jtmigratory.bsky.social asks what Mahmood can do compared to her predecessor - and whether this is about real experience, or just a changing of narrative.
September 8, 2025 at 4:29 PM
My take on yet another change of Home Secretary.
And in defence of the last one.
And in defence of the last one.
1/ Start of the HE academic year.
'Hello international students. Don't forget to leave' may seem a strange welcome message. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
But might international student numbers into UK remain higher than many expect? Why?
'Hello international students. Don't forget to leave' may seem a strange welcome message. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
But might international student numbers into UK remain higher than many expect? Why?
www.bbc.co.uk
September 2, 2025 at 6:52 AM
1/ Start of the HE academic year.
'Hello international students. Don't forget to leave' may seem a strange welcome message. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
But might international student numbers into UK remain higher than many expect? Why?
'Hello international students. Don't forget to leave' may seem a strange welcome message. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
But might international student numbers into UK remain higher than many expect? Why?
The Incredibles
Nigel Farage's plan to tackle illegal immigration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond?
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Nigel Farage's plan to tackle illegal immigration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond?
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
The Incredibles: Nigel Farage’s plan to tackle illegal migration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond?
Nigel Farage has outlined the details of his plan to tackle illegal immigration to the UK under a Reform government.
www.smf.co.uk
August 29, 2025 at 6:29 AM
The Incredibles
Nigel Farage's plan to tackle illegal immigration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond?
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Nigel Farage's plan to tackle illegal immigration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond?
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Level of formal education = big dividing line on many issues in Western democracies - inc immigration = graduates typically pro more open policies.
If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...
If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...
Zero-sum Thinking and the Labor Market
is college worth it? and other questions about the state of things
kyla.substack.com
July 24, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Level of formal education = big dividing line on many issues in Western democracies - inc immigration = graduates typically pro more open policies.
If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...
If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...
Today's big UK immigration news.
Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic...
As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic...
As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
EU set to demand free NHS healthcare with under-30s travel visas
Despite a broad softer Brexit agreement, the UK still has to hammer out the details with Europe
inews.co.uk
July 24, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Today's big UK immigration news.
Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic...
As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic...
As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
UK Govt = addicted to keeping scary immigration stories in the news.
Yesterday Serbian gang bosses
Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers
Tomorrow?
Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware
What's wrong with bliss?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Yesterday Serbian gang bosses
Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers
Tomorrow?
Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware
What's wrong with bliss?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Home Office to share asylum hotel locations with Deliveroo, Just Eat and Uber Eats
The agreement is aimed at helping companies identify migrants who are working illegally in the UK.
www.bbc.co.uk
July 23, 2025 at 12:01 PM
UK Govt = addicted to keeping scary immigration stories in the news.
Yesterday Serbian gang bosses
Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers
Tomorrow?
Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware
What's wrong with bliss?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Yesterday Serbian gang bosses
Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers
Tomorrow?
Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware
What's wrong with bliss?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
1/ UK Govt = keen to get credit for doing better job than previous govt on returning people not allowed to be in the UK.
Understandable. But unfortunately:
1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Understandable. But unfortunately:
1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
What messages might Reform be vulnerable to?
A short message testing experiment with UK voters on the party's potential vulnerabilities
persuasionuk.org
July 22, 2025 at 4:39 PM
1/ UK Govt = keen to get credit for doing better job than previous govt on returning people not allowed to be in the UK.
Understandable. But unfortunately:
1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Understandable. But unfortunately:
1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Latest UK Home Office annual accounts show Immigration Skills Charge receipts unsurprisingly falling back a little after last year's record, but still = nearly £1.25 billion over the last two years. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687774...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
July 22, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Latest UK Home Office annual accounts show Immigration Skills Charge receipts unsurprisingly falling back a little after last year's record, but still = nearly £1.25 billion over the last two years. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687774...
1/ Big UK-France deal today on Channel crossings. 5 key takeaways.
1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security
2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...
1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security
2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...
July 10, 2025 at 5:00 PM
1/ Big UK-France deal today on Channel crossings. 5 key takeaways.
1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security
2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...
1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security
2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...
My piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the outbreak of ECHR fever across the UK political scene.
And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.
And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.
Thinking on the UK's membership of the ECHR seems to have reached a tipping point.
Senior Fellow @jtmigratory.bsky.social explores the various positions - and questions who is best placed to take on this complex issue.🤔
Read the full blog here: buff.ly/MEXiDzG
Senior Fellow @jtmigratory.bsky.social explores the various positions - and questions who is best placed to take on this complex issue.🤔
Read the full blog here: buff.ly/MEXiDzG
June 27, 2025 at 10:17 AM
My piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the outbreak of ECHR fever across the UK political scene.
And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.
And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.
Is the government's failure to bring back the Resident Labour Market Test actively undermining its aim to encourage more UK employers to invest in and hire domestic workers?
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
Can’t live with it, can’t live without it: the strange case of the Resident Labour Market Test
We’re now beginning to see the full consequences of the absence of the Resident Labour Market Test from the Immigration White Paper.
www.smf.co.uk
June 18, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Is the government's failure to bring back the Resident Labour Market Test actively undermining its aim to encourage more UK employers to invest in and hire domestic workers?
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
That 'asylum hotels' should feature at all, let alone so prominently, across the headlines written about the Spending Review, tells you something.
I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.
I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.
@jtmigratory.bsky.social notes that the #SpendingReview's commitment to stop housing asylum seekers in hotels is ultimately hostage to fortune.
Read the SMF's full response below 👇 :
buff.ly/LmtHzD6
Read the SMF's full response below 👇 :
buff.ly/LmtHzD6
June 12, 2025 at 9:19 AM
That 'asylum hotels' should feature at all, let alone so prominently, across the headlines written about the Spending Review, tells you something.
I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.
I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.
1 - As I pointed out in www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
- if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries
- and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE
- you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.
- if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries
- and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE
- you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.
www.smf.co.uk
June 4, 2025 at 9:54 AM
1 - As I pointed out in www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
- if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries
- and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE
- you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.
- if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries
- and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE
- you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.
Reposted by Jonathan Thomas
Thoughtful blog from @jtmigratory.bsky.social on the government's proposals on restricting migrants' right to settle/Indefinite Leave to Remain.
As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2)
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2)
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
The big new issue in immigration policy goes all the way to the top of government
In this blog, Senior Fellow Jonathan Thomas explains why is the government is picking a big fight over earned settlement in the Immigration White Paper - and how pro-migration proponents must understa...
www.smf.co.uk
May 29, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Thoughtful blog from @jtmigratory.bsky.social on the government's proposals on restricting migrants' right to settle/Indefinite Leave to Remain.
As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2)
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2)
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Reposted by Jonathan Thomas
This, from @jtmigratory.bsky.social is a real must-read blog on the proposed WP settlement changes. TLDR: it is all about the money, and retrospective effect is highly possible
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
The big new issue in immigration policy goes all the way to the top of government
In this blog, Senior Fellow Jonathan Thomas explains why is the government is picking a big fight over earned settlement in the Immigration White Paper - and how pro-migration proponents must understa...
www.smf.co.uk
May 29, 2025 at 11:02 AM
This, from @jtmigratory.bsky.social is a real must-read blog on the proposed WP settlement changes. TLDR: it is all about the money, and retrospective effect is highly possible
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
MAC review of IT and Engineering sectors' use of immigration is out.
TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?'
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...
TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?'
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
May 29, 2025 at 11:54 AM
MAC review of IT and Engineering sectors' use of immigration is out.
TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?'
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...
TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?'
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...
My thoughts for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on a key issue raised in recent UK Govt White paper on Immigration:
- why is the Govt seeking to extend the qualifying period for permanent settlement in the UK?
- why is Angela Rayner so interested?
- and how to respond to this?
- why is the Govt seeking to extend the qualifying period for permanent settlement in the UK?
- why is Angela Rayner so interested?
- and how to respond to this?
A quiet but crucial debate on earned settlement and Indefinite Leave to Remain is moving up the government’s immigration agenda.
New @jtmigratory.bsky.social blog on what’s changing and why it matters: smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
New @jtmigratory.bsky.social blog on what’s changing and why it matters: smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
May 29, 2025 at 11:47 AM
My thoughts for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on a key issue raised in recent UK Govt White paper on Immigration:
- why is the Govt seeking to extend the qualifying period for permanent settlement in the UK?
- why is Angela Rayner so interested?
- and how to respond to this?
- why is the Govt seeking to extend the qualifying period for permanent settlement in the UK?
- why is Angela Rayner so interested?
- and how to respond to this?
With money too tight to mention, scepticism is understandable that Immigration Skills Charge proceeds will at last now actually fund skills training.
But this further detail from Govt is not unwelcome + as we have said repeatedly, the 'presentation' that this is happening is itself important.
But this further detail from Govt is not unwelcome + as we have said repeatedly, the 'presentation' that this is happening is itself important.
May 28, 2025 at 1:50 PM
With money too tight to mention, scepticism is understandable that Immigration Skills Charge proceeds will at last now actually fund skills training.
But this further detail from Govt is not unwelcome + as we have said repeatedly, the 'presentation' that this is happening is itself important.
But this further detail from Govt is not unwelcome + as we have said repeatedly, the 'presentation' that this is happening is itself important.
Direction of travel on YMS seems right.
Initial proposal by EU on YMS = bad deal - EU admitted so themselves.
UK negotiating good YMS deal can be doubly good; will:
(1) be a good deal
(2) show UK is rule maker with the EU, not rule taker from it.
Let's see ... www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Initial proposal by EU on YMS = bad deal - EU admitted so themselves.
UK negotiating good YMS deal can be doubly good; will:
(1) be a good deal
(2) show UK is rule maker with the EU, not rule taker from it.
Let's see ... www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
May 19, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Direction of travel on YMS seems right.
Initial proposal by EU on YMS = bad deal - EU admitted so themselves.
UK negotiating good YMS deal can be doubly good; will:
(1) be a good deal
(2) show UK is rule maker with the EU, not rule taker from it.
Let's see ... www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Initial proposal by EU on YMS = bad deal - EU admitted so themselves.
UK negotiating good YMS deal can be doubly good; will:
(1) be a good deal
(2) show UK is rule maker with the EU, not rule taker from it.
Let's see ... www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
V supportive of this.
This aligns with what we proposed in our @smfthinktank.bsky.social December 2022 'Routes to Resolution' report - excerpted.
Times/Vibes diplomatically might be more favourable to this possibility now, although still huge challenges obvs.
This aligns with what we proposed in our @smfthinktank.bsky.social December 2022 'Routes to Resolution' report - excerpted.
Times/Vibes diplomatically might be more favourable to this possibility now, although still huge challenges obvs.
May 15, 2025 at 1:16 PM
V supportive of this.
This aligns with what we proposed in our @smfthinktank.bsky.social December 2022 'Routes to Resolution' report - excerpted.
Times/Vibes diplomatically might be more favourable to this possibility now, although still huge challenges obvs.
This aligns with what we proposed in our @smfthinktank.bsky.social December 2022 'Routes to Resolution' report - excerpted.
Times/Vibes diplomatically might be more favourable to this possibility now, although still huge challenges obvs.
My paper for @smfthinktank.bsky.social just out on:
- the politics and principle of the Immigration White Paper,
- what just happened and why,
- and how should business respond.
- the politics and principle of the Immigration White Paper,
- what just happened and why,
- and how should business respond.
Given the Govt’s stance on overseas workers, the White Paper was a chance to put policy behind the rhetoric — to reduce immigration and rebalance whose interests the economy best serves. Did it deliver? And how should business respond?
🧵 on @jtmigratory.bsky.social SMF analysis.
🧵 on @jtmigratory.bsky.social SMF analysis.
May 15, 2025 at 12:06 PM
My paper for @smfthinktank.bsky.social just out on:
- the politics and principle of the Immigration White Paper,
- what just happened and why,
- and how should business respond.
- the politics and principle of the Immigration White Paper,
- what just happened and why,
- and how should business respond.