Jonathan Swarbrick
@jswarbrick.bsky.social
Dreamer, navigator. I study macro/monetary econ. Assistant Prof at St Andrews
Points to big fixed costs. Loss-making cohort ≠ loss-making marginal student. Cutting number of domestic students can worsen financial position.
November 20, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Points to big fixed costs. Loss-making cohort ≠ loss-making marginal student. Cutting number of domestic students can worsen financial position.
From here, something has to give: either
- earnings grow rapidly,
- interest rates fall sharply, or
- equity prices drop
- earnings grow rapidly,
- interest rates fall sharply, or
- equity prices drop
October 18, 2025 at 8:45 AM
From here, something has to give: either
- earnings grow rapidly,
- interest rates fall sharply, or
- equity prices drop
- earnings grow rapidly,
- interest rates fall sharply, or
- equity prices drop
The post-GFC boom in stock prices was supported by both earnings growth and very low interest rates.
But since rates were hiked in 2022, the equity premium has been close to zero. 2/3
But since rates were hiked in 2022, the equity premium has been close to zero. 2/3
October 18, 2025 at 8:45 AM
The post-GFC boom in stock prices was supported by both earnings growth and very low interest rates.
But since rates were hiked in 2022, the equity premium has been close to zero. 2/3
But since rates were hiked in 2022, the equity premium has been close to zero. 2/3
Reposted by Jonathan Swarbrick
Also global yields are higher because of Truss's idol Trump. The UK-US 30Y yield premium isn't great but it isn't wider than under Sunak and definitely not as wide as under Truss.
August 29, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Also global yields are higher because of Truss's idol Trump. The UK-US 30Y yield premium isn't great but it isn't wider than under Sunak and definitely not as wide as under Truss.
You ask about 30-year gilt yields being higher now than Sept 22. Short rates are 2% higher now. The term/risk premium was phenomenal - cannot compare!
August 29, 2025 at 7:12 AM
You ask about 30-year gilt yields being higher now than Sept 22. Short rates are 2% higher now. The term/risk premium was phenomenal - cannot compare!