If I had to take my bet based on the circumstances my bet would be current Secretary of State and agreeable moderate Pietro Parolin who would satisfy all without rocking the boat either way www.reuters.com/world/europe...

If this conclave takes longer, however, it may suggest a name not suggested and a potential compromise among such an ideologically and culturally varied group as they take their time to get to know each other

If the electorate wish to keep the conclave as long as others in recent memory they may resolve for voting for names pushed in the media given that as a result of being the most diverse in church history most are also unfamiliar with each other and language barriers make it trickier to break the ice

UPDATE: The black smoke goes up so there is no new pope yet. I was just reading that because of how diverse the cardinal voting base is as a group more representative of the church’s worldwide reach I’m realizing that a prediction of someone from news articles may not be far off

How sure am I of that? Not really but what I am sure is regardless of who the media hypes on articles, tweets, posts, etc. that ultimately much like Francis and many a pope before him the chosen one will not be who anyone expected

My guess however is the next pope will be somewhere in between. A pick that regardless of slant will be selected as a temporary stabilizing force in such uncertain times for the church to figure out altogether whether cultural progress or regress is to come in a new era still unsure of its identity

Much the same can be said for a conservatives who may find someone bold and charismatic but controversially abrasive in the process or pick someone not as divisive yet lose relevancy with a base looking to be excited

As a result I’m left to believe if we get a liberal the pressure will be for them to not only be as charming and inspiring but as competent a leader as Francis was begging which one if any of them have that magic he had and can the move the church forward culturally without causing a great schism

What I do know is that Pope Francis I like him or not made the church relevant and popular again among demographics and helped guide it through tricky controversies that arose that his more conservative predecessor failed to achieve.

Overall I don’t know and for that matter I think no one including the men walking in to the Conclave know either what the direction the church should take at such a promising yet precariously contentious position worldwide.

Furthermore Francis was very popular among Catholics bred from birth in the faith but the more ardent converts found him not as conservative as they’d want begging the question (at least in America) if both can be satisfied or if one will need to be catered to in deciding the church’s next leader

LGBT issues is often brought up and while many including myself would love to see them affirm the community they risk schisms in many nations including those who may mostly embrace it so it could cost them in the long run

This is most likely due to the fact that as a worldwide church it needs to keep in mind the cultural proclivities of every country it serves with debate over whether going more liberal or more conservative risks losing growth in certain demographics over others

In fact much like previous conclaves the names being floated as papabiles will most likely not be chosen much like it has in previous years. The decision making and ideological politics of the Catholic Church is too complex to sufficiently place cardinals with a left-right spectrum

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