Josh Blake
@joshuablake.co.uk
Professionally: civil servant, science advice for emergencies, previously infectious disease statistics PhD
Interests: Effective Altruism, politics, nerds
Interests: Effective Altruism, politics, nerds
The 80/20 Rule: if you've solved 80% of the problem, you've spent 20% of the resources required.
March 23, 2025 at 10:22 PM
The 80/20 Rule: if you've solved 80% of the problem, you've spent 20% of the resources required.
Omg I've never been so excited by a Substack
I made a Substack!
It's going to be about forecast-driven analysis. It's going to be about the power in AI - both literal and metaphorical. It's going to be about national security, innovation, and emerging technology.
I hope you like it!
peterwildeford.substack.com/p/welcome-to...
It's going to be about forecast-driven analysis. It's going to be about the power in AI - both literal and metaphorical. It's going to be about national security, innovation, and emerging technology.
I hope you like it!
peterwildeford.substack.com/p/welcome-to...
Welcome to "The Power Law" by Peter Wildeford
Power follows patterns. This Substack, The Power Law, is about all these patterns colliding. If you’re reading this, you’ve just stepped into a conversation about these patterns sculpting our future. ...
peterwildeford.substack.com
January 31, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Omg I've never been so excited by a Substack
Reposted by Josh Blake
Here's a question I have NEVER managed to get a straight answer to: if I paste an internal company strategy document into ChatGPT or similar to ask for a summary, what are the chances that a competitor in six months time can ask the model about my strategy and get it to leak internal secrets?
January 4, 2025 at 11:24 PM
Here's a question I have NEVER managed to get a straight answer to: if I paste an internal company strategy document into ChatGPT or similar to ask for a summary, what are the chances that a competitor in six months time can ask the model about my strategy and get it to leak internal secrets?
If you're not obsessively following AI, strong recommend below for implications of the latest models focusing on a new type of training and compute paradigm. Clearly explains what's different and the implications. Worth the subscription just for this article IMO.
open.substack.com/pub/understa...
open.substack.com/pub/understa...
It's the end of pretraining as we know it
LLM training techniques are evolving, and that has huge implications.
open.substack.com
December 23, 2024 at 11:09 AM
If you're not obsessively following AI, strong recommend below for implications of the latest models focusing on a new type of training and compute paradigm. Clearly explains what's different and the implications. Worth the subscription just for this article IMO.
open.substack.com/pub/understa...
open.substack.com/pub/understa...
Reposted by Josh Blake
WHO declares Rwanda’s Marburg virus outbreak over.
65 cases and 15 deaths were reported.
65 cases and 15 deaths were reported.
December 20, 2024 at 11:59 AM
WHO declares Rwanda’s Marburg virus outbreak over.
65 cases and 15 deaths were reported.
65 cases and 15 deaths were reported.
Reposted by Josh Blake
Maybe the much fretted about UK worklessness problem is a statistical glitch and not real: on.ft.com/4io5NM3
What if the UK isn’t actually the sick man of Europe?
Britain’s illness-related inactivity crisis looks increasingly like a mirage
on.ft.com
December 6, 2024 at 4:04 PM
Maybe the much fretted about UK worklessness problem is a statistical glitch and not real: on.ft.com/4io5NM3
Reposted by Josh Blake
Fascinating paper on where 6000 global elites went to college. Billionaires, CEOs, heads of state, central bankers, etc.
In a word: Harvard.
Fully 10% of global elites went to Harvard. Elite US schools are over-represented (23% IvyPlus), but nobody comes close to Harvard.
🧵
In a word: Harvard.
Fully 10% of global elites went to Harvard. Elite US schools are over-represented (23% IvyPlus), but nobody comes close to Harvard.
🧵
December 6, 2024 at 7:10 PM
Fascinating paper on where 6000 global elites went to college. Billionaires, CEOs, heads of state, central bankers, etc.
In a word: Harvard.
Fully 10% of global elites went to Harvard. Elite US schools are over-represented (23% IvyPlus), but nobody comes close to Harvard.
🧵
In a word: Harvard.
Fully 10% of global elites went to Harvard. Elite US schools are over-represented (23% IvyPlus), but nobody comes close to Harvard.
🧵
Reposted by Josh Blake
I spoke to @gavinfreeguard.bsky.social for a little glimpse behind the (imperfect but real-life) data that informed the UK pandemic response.
Have we improved our infectious disease data systems since March 2020? Yes and no…
Have we improved our infectious disease data systems since March 2020? Yes and no…
The story of the R number: how an obscure epidemiological figure took over our lives
Where did the data behind the Covid-19 R Number come from? What went well? What... didn't? What can we learn?
Final part free to read in @royalstatsoc.bsky.social's Significance
academic.oup.com/jrssig/artic...
Where did the data behind the Covid-19 R Number come from? What went well? What... didn't? What can we learn?
Final part free to read in @royalstatsoc.bsky.social's Significance
academic.oup.com/jrssig/artic...
The story of the R number: How an obscure epidemiological figure took over our lives. Part 5: So what did we learn?
The Times “waved goodbye” to R on 8 March 2021. “You won’t be missed”, wrote science editor, Tom Whipple. He quoted John Edmunds of the London School of Hy
academic.oup.com
December 2, 2024 at 3:04 PM
I spoke to @gavinfreeguard.bsky.social for a little glimpse behind the (imperfect but real-life) data that informed the UK pandemic response.
Have we improved our infectious disease data systems since March 2020? Yes and no…
Have we improved our infectious disease data systems since March 2020? Yes and no…
@andymatuschak.org big fan of your work and ideas! I was wondering if you've ever written what tools you use for reading and writing inbox, including incorporating spaced repetition? I love the ideas in your working notes but struggling to see how to implement them.
December 2, 2024 at 8:30 AM
@andymatuschak.org big fan of your work and ideas! I was wondering if you've ever written what tools you use for reading and writing inbox, including incorporating spaced repetition? I love the ideas in your working notes but struggling to see how to implement them.
I want to keep better track of frontier AI from a range of perspectives.
Recommendations for Substacks (preferred), blogs, or people to follow (preferred not) which provides news in a shortish and accesible form, without ridiculous hype, ideally with a focus on putting developments into context.
Recommendations for Substacks (preferred), blogs, or people to follow (preferred not) which provides news in a shortish and accesible form, without ridiculous hype, ideally with a focus on putting developments into context.
December 2, 2024 at 8:16 AM
I want to keep better track of frontier AI from a range of perspectives.
Recommendations for Substacks (preferred), blogs, or people to follow (preferred not) which provides news in a shortish and accesible form, without ridiculous hype, ideally with a focus on putting developments into context.
Recommendations for Substacks (preferred), blogs, or people to follow (preferred not) which provides news in a shortish and accesible form, without ridiculous hype, ideally with a focus on putting developments into context.
Reposted by Josh Blake
Did you know? Black Friday is named in honor of Rebecca Black, who invented Friday in 2011.
November 29, 2024 at 2:31 PM
Did you know? Black Friday is named in honor of Rebecca Black, who invented Friday in 2011.
Reposted by Josh Blake
UKHSA hiring a Deputy Director of Modelling: www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
Deputy Director of Modelling - Civil Service Jobs - GOV.UKGOV.UK
Search and apply for jobs in the UK Civil Service
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk
November 24, 2024 at 4:28 PM
UKHSA hiring a Deputy Director of Modelling: www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
A Tweet is to Twitter as ?? is to Blue sky
November 24, 2024 at 3:24 PM
A Tweet is to Twitter as ?? is to Blue sky