John Nemeth
@john-nemeth.bsky.social
Public Agency Director, Husband and Father, Oaklander, Hella Enjoyer of Politics, Policy, Economics, Transportation, and Urban Planning. Pro-Democracy.
Not sure if I was exactly right but maybe onto something.
November 12, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Not sure if I was exactly right but maybe onto something.
Excellent work putting the possible outcomes in rank order.
My only knock is that your #6 (winning ACA concessions) is not the worst. To me it’s 4th (i get your point, though).
So Dems got the 4th best outcome in your ranking and 5th best in mine. If they’d hung tight woulda had #2. Not great Bob.
My only knock is that your #6 (winning ACA concessions) is not the worst. To me it’s 4th (i get your point, though).
So Dems got the 4th best outcome in your ranking and 5th best in mine. If they’d hung tight woulda had #2. Not great Bob.
November 11, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Excellent work putting the possible outcomes in rank order.
My only knock is that your #6 (winning ACA concessions) is not the worst. To me it’s 4th (i get your point, though).
So Dems got the 4th best outcome in your ranking and 5th best in mine. If they’d hung tight woulda had #2. Not great Bob.
My only knock is that your #6 (winning ACA concessions) is not the worst. To me it’s 4th (i get your point, though).
So Dems got the 4th best outcome in your ranking and 5th best in mine. If they’d hung tight woulda had #2. Not great Bob.
Yes. They handpicked *this* specific shutdown fight among many strategic possibilities. They fundraised off of this fight. They said this was the right hill to die on and rallied the electorate to the cause. Now they’re expecting everyone to be happy with just kinda dropping it?
November 10, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Yes. They handpicked *this* specific shutdown fight among many strategic possibilities. They fundraised off of this fight. They said this was the right hill to die on and rallied the electorate to the cause. Now they’re expecting everyone to be happy with just kinda dropping it?
“praise” is maybe imprecise but you did call the shutdown/climbdown “a big deal” in your piece. I’m seeing it as much more underwhelming than that, given this conclusion.
November 10, 2025 at 7:10 AM
“praise” is maybe imprecise but you did call the shutdown/climbdown “a big deal” in your piece. I’m seeing it as much more underwhelming than that, given this conclusion.
I absolutely read it and have a lot of respect for your perspective. Not understanding it? Well, that’s certainly possible.
November 10, 2025 at 7:01 AM
I absolutely read it and have a lot of respect for your perspective. Not understanding it? Well, that’s certainly possible.
This is like watching someone play chess, put their opponent in check, then inexplicably release the pressure.
Why praise them for showing that they can threaten? That’s the basics of game. You’d only do that for a novice.
To fully succeed, they have to press advantage and force hard choices.
Why praise them for showing that they can threaten? That’s the basics of game. You’d only do that for a novice.
To fully succeed, they have to press advantage and force hard choices.
November 10, 2025 at 6:45 AM
This is like watching someone play chess, put their opponent in check, then inexplicably release the pressure.
Why praise them for showing that they can threaten? That’s the basics of game. You’d only do that for a novice.
To fully succeed, they have to press advantage and force hard choices.
Why praise them for showing that they can threaten? That’s the basics of game. You’d only do that for a novice.
To fully succeed, they have to press advantage and force hard choices.
It’s a terrible deal. The GOP was in a jam. They either needed to give big policy concessions on the ACA, keep the shutdown going and take political pain, or break the filibuster and take a political hit. Dems provided an easy out and got fairly little that they couldn’t have won through courts.
November 10, 2025 at 5:33 AM
It’s a terrible deal. The GOP was in a jam. They either needed to give big policy concessions on the ACA, keep the shutdown going and take political pain, or break the filibuster and take a political hit. Dems provided an easy out and got fairly little that they couldn’t have won through courts.
What’s worse is that I didn’t demand this fight. I wanted the shut down leverage used for other things. But they focused on this issue, told me in fundraising texts it was the hill to die on, then got cold feet. It’s not that they won’t stand up for me - they won’t even stand up for themselves.
November 10, 2025 at 5:20 AM
What’s worse is that I didn’t demand this fight. I wanted the shut down leverage used for other things. But they focused on this issue, told me in fundraising texts it was the hill to die on, then got cold feet. It’s not that they won’t stand up for me - they won’t even stand up for themselves.
Great thread. I’ll add that aging is not helping with the Emperor for Life gambit, either. People have been wrongly predicting incapacitating dementia for about a decade now, but the visible signs of decline are becoming apparent. He moves more slowly, falls asleep in the day, and sounds tired.
November 7, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Great thread. I’ll add that aging is not helping with the Emperor for Life gambit, either. People have been wrongly predicting incapacitating dementia for about a decade now, but the visible signs of decline are becoming apparent. He moves more slowly, falls asleep in the day, and sounds tired.
I asked ChatGPT if Mamdani would be the least qualified Mayor ever and here’s its reply, contradicting the ad…
“Least qualified ever” is a hyper-extreme label and the benchmark for “qualified” is subjective. Many mayors have had non-traditional backgrounds and still managed well.
“Least qualified ever” is a hyper-extreme label and the benchmark for “qualified” is subjective. Many mayors have had non-traditional backgrounds and still managed well.
October 31, 2025 at 5:53 PM
I asked ChatGPT if Mamdani would be the least qualified Mayor ever and here’s its reply, contradicting the ad…
“Least qualified ever” is a hyper-extreme label and the benchmark for “qualified” is subjective. Many mayors have had non-traditional backgrounds and still managed well.
“Least qualified ever” is a hyper-extreme label and the benchmark for “qualified” is subjective. Many mayors have had non-traditional backgrounds and still managed well.
The phrasing of polling questions can make an enormous difference.
“Should EV purchases be subsidized?” will poll much worse than “To improve air quality, should EV purchases get a tax credit?”
“Should EV purchases be subsidized?” will poll much worse than “To improve air quality, should EV purchases get a tax credit?”
October 30, 2025 at 12:50 AM
The phrasing of polling questions can make an enormous difference.
“Should EV purchases be subsidized?” will poll much worse than “To improve air quality, should EV purchases get a tax credit?”
“Should EV purchases be subsidized?” will poll much worse than “To improve air quality, should EV purchases get a tax credit?”
The success of Mamdani lies in his use of new tools to bypass media filters and convey his positions directly to voters, his way. He’s creating his own vibes.
His specific positions are close enough to the median NYC voter to win. Other electorates, though, could require different positions/themes
His specific positions are close enough to the median NYC voter to win. Other electorates, though, could require different positions/themes
October 28, 2025 at 8:05 PM
The success of Mamdani lies in his use of new tools to bypass media filters and convey his positions directly to voters, his way. He’s creating his own vibes.
His specific positions are close enough to the median NYC voter to win. Other electorates, though, could require different positions/themes
His specific positions are close enough to the median NYC voter to win. Other electorates, though, could require different positions/themes
The central problem is that Democratic issue positions get conveyed to voters through the filter of an info environment that is increasingly hostile and controlled by its political enemies. Aiming for median voters is fine but you’ll get no credit when vibes rule and you don’t control the vibes
October 28, 2025 at 1:54 PM
The central problem is that Democratic issue positions get conveyed to voters through the filter of an info environment that is increasingly hostile and controlled by its political enemies. Aiming for median voters is fine but you’ll get no credit when vibes rule and you don’t control the vibes
Both kinda right.
They have extremely limited power, are not primarily to blame, and are doing some resistance stuff despite all that;
also..they don’t have the most creative, talented, or urgent messengers in leadership and have trouble breaking through the noise.
How’s that for diplomacy?
They have extremely limited power, are not primarily to blame, and are doing some resistance stuff despite all that;
also..they don’t have the most creative, talented, or urgent messengers in leadership and have trouble breaking through the noise.
How’s that for diplomacy?
October 24, 2025 at 2:04 AM
Both kinda right.
They have extremely limited power, are not primarily to blame, and are doing some resistance stuff despite all that;
also..they don’t have the most creative, talented, or urgent messengers in leadership and have trouble breaking through the noise.
How’s that for diplomacy?
They have extremely limited power, are not primarily to blame, and are doing some resistance stuff despite all that;
also..they don’t have the most creative, talented, or urgent messengers in leadership and have trouble breaking through the noise.
How’s that for diplomacy?
It’s a weird little moment where maybe the SF tech lords trust a Democratic mayor to improve the City more than Trump’s goon squad (Benioff’s original comment excepted). To me that’s notable, whatever one thinks of Lurie or tech companies.
October 23, 2025 at 6:41 PM
It’s a weird little moment where maybe the SF tech lords trust a Democratic mayor to improve the City more than Trump’s goon squad (Benioff’s original comment excepted). To me that’s notable, whatever one thinks of Lurie or tech companies.
MAGA is a coalition of non-college educated whites and loosely attached oligarchs. Strategically, Dems need to break that arrangement.
Lurie is not an oligarch but he has connections to tech titans. He’s showing what could happen if the interests of libs and tech lords were to align again.
Lurie is not an oligarch but he has connections to tech titans. He’s showing what could happen if the interests of libs and tech lords were to align again.
October 23, 2025 at 6:27 PM
MAGA is a coalition of non-college educated whites and loosely attached oligarchs. Strategically, Dems need to break that arrangement.
Lurie is not an oligarch but he has connections to tech titans. He’s showing what could happen if the interests of libs and tech lords were to align again.
Lurie is not an oligarch but he has connections to tech titans. He’s showing what could happen if the interests of libs and tech lords were to align again.
Some comments here..”Ooo, look at the strength of Platner!”. And some responses, “Yeah, but Mills had just announced, it’s pre-tattoo, etc”
Folks, the important thing here is beating Collins. This poll was conducted a couple weeks ago. What do you suppose it would look like today?
Folks, the important thing here is beating Collins. This poll was conducted a couple weeks ago. What do you suppose it would look like today?
October 23, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Some comments here..”Ooo, look at the strength of Platner!”. And some responses, “Yeah, but Mills had just announced, it’s pre-tattoo, etc”
Folks, the important thing here is beating Collins. This poll was conducted a couple weeks ago. What do you suppose it would look like today?
Folks, the important thing here is beating Collins. This poll was conducted a couple weeks ago. What do you suppose it would look like today?
You make it sound like the things that people do in their lives mean more than the things they say to score points in a job interview.
October 22, 2025 at 11:59 PM
You make it sound like the things that people do in their lives mean more than the things they say to score points in a job interview.
Why delegate? The president should make this content.
October 22, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Why delegate? The president should make this content.
So he’s got a Nazi tattoo and also referred to himself as a communist? What’s with the attraction to extreme ideologies? Even if he wins the primary and general, he seems like the next horseshoe nightmare waiting to happen.
October 22, 2025 at 5:41 AM
So he’s got a Nazi tattoo and also referred to himself as a communist? What’s with the attraction to extreme ideologies? Even if he wins the primary and general, he seems like the next horseshoe nightmare waiting to happen.
There’s another friction right now beyond well-worn stuff like restrictive zoning.
Trump is doing rent extraction across swaths of the economy by doling out favors and punishments (see tariffs). He uses this rent to gather political support and to monetize it for himself.
Trump is doing rent extraction across swaths of the economy by doling out favors and punishments (see tariffs). He uses this rent to gather political support and to monetize it for himself.
October 21, 2025 at 3:46 AM
There’s another friction right now beyond well-worn stuff like restrictive zoning.
Trump is doing rent extraction across swaths of the economy by doling out favors and punishments (see tariffs). He uses this rent to gather political support and to monetize it for himself.
Trump is doing rent extraction across swaths of the economy by doling out favors and punishments (see tariffs). He uses this rent to gather political support and to monetize it for himself.
Law and Order, Amirite?
October 17, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Law and Order, Amirite?