Joe Allen
@joeallen82.bsky.social
Off-brand Joe Allen in Cardiff. I work at the TUC.
Reposted by Joe Allen
Furthermore, a huge vindication for Mark Drakeford here, on two fronts:
1) UK Labour have been salivating at the prospect of a devastating Welsh Labour loss in the new PR list system coming in next year, so they can create a cautionary tale about PR and further argue the merits of FPTP. Well… (1/6)
1) UK Labour have been salivating at the prospect of a devastating Welsh Labour loss in the new PR list system coming in next year, so they can create a cautionary tale about PR and further argue the merits of FPTP. Well… (1/6)
It sounds mad to acknowledge this but we’re seeing the most successful party in the democratic world crumble.
Welsh Labour have won every domestic election for 103 years and are now slumping to a distant 3rd in FPTP and close to the threshold of not winning *any* Caerphilly-esque seats in #Senedd26
Welsh Labour have won every domestic election for 103 years and are now slumping to a distant 3rd in FPTP and close to the threshold of not winning *any* Caerphilly-esque seats in #Senedd26
Massive Caerphilly by-election poll!
Survation/Camlas poll makes it a two horse race:
Reform 41.61%
PC 38.29%
Lab 12.37%
Con 3.65%
LD 1.35%
Green 2.72%
Labour previously had an 18 point majority here and 46% of the vote.
The Tory vote has collapsed. 70% of their voters now going to Reform.
Survation/Camlas poll makes it a two horse race:
Reform 41.61%
PC 38.29%
Lab 12.37%
Con 3.65%
LD 1.35%
Green 2.72%
Labour previously had an 18 point majority here and 46% of the vote.
The Tory vote has collapsed. 70% of their voters now going to Reform.
October 16, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Furthermore, a huge vindication for Mark Drakeford here, on two fronts:
1) UK Labour have been salivating at the prospect of a devastating Welsh Labour loss in the new PR list system coming in next year, so they can create a cautionary tale about PR and further argue the merits of FPTP. Well… (1/6)
1) UK Labour have been salivating at the prospect of a devastating Welsh Labour loss in the new PR list system coming in next year, so they can create a cautionary tale about PR and further argue the merits of FPTP. Well… (1/6)
Reposted by Joe Allen
FT mag piece from me: Spent a long time looking into the Britannia hotel chain, beneficiaries of a vast amount of taxpayer money via the asylum system
on.ft.com/47HEE46
on.ft.com/47HEE46
The crumbling seaside palaces at the centre of Britain’s asylum crisis
[FREE TO READ] How one hotelier built an empire from beloved community assets — and a government struggling to cope with a surge in migration
on.ft.com
September 13, 2025 at 8:27 AM
FT mag piece from me: Spent a long time looking into the Britannia hotel chain, beneficiaries of a vast amount of taxpayer money via the asylum system
on.ft.com/47HEE46
on.ft.com/47HEE46
Hard to disagree with ex-Plaid MP Cynog Dafis' assessment of the party's approach to energy policy.
"...loitering in its historic comfort zone of easy opposition."
nation.cymru/news/plaid-c...
"...loitering in its historic comfort zone of easy opposition."
nation.cymru/news/plaid-c...
July 29, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Hard to disagree with ex-Plaid MP Cynog Dafis' assessment of the party's approach to energy policy.
"...loitering in its historic comfort zone of easy opposition."
nation.cymru/news/plaid-c...
"...loitering in its historic comfort zone of easy opposition."
nation.cymru/news/plaid-c...
Reposted by Joe Allen
I am writing a policy pamphlet. Here are all the ways to demonstrate I don't really have a policy answer, that I need to avoid:
a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/
a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/
July 8, 2025 at 12:41 PM
I am writing a policy pamphlet. Here are all the ways to demonstrate I don't really have a policy answer, that I need to avoid:
a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/
a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/
Data is from London, but a useful insight for the never-ending argument in Cardiff about holding gigs in public parks.
June 1, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Data is from London, but a useful insight for the never-ending argument in Cardiff about holding gigs in public parks.
2,430 Romanians in Wales voted in their presidential election at polling stations in Swansea and Cardiff yesterday.
And (thanks to Romania's excellent election website) we can see that they favoured the defeated populist candidate George Simion (53%-47%).
And (thanks to Romania's excellent election website) we can see that they favoured the defeated populist candidate George Simion (53%-47%).
May 19, 2025 at 7:53 PM
2,430 Romanians in Wales voted in their presidential election at polling stations in Swansea and Cardiff yesterday.
And (thanks to Romania's excellent election website) we can see that they favoured the defeated populist candidate George Simion (53%-47%).
And (thanks to Romania's excellent election website) we can see that they favoured the defeated populist candidate George Simion (53%-47%).
Reposted by Joe Allen
My bet is that under-estimation of the Reform vote also applies to all Welsh (and perhaps also Scots) polling ahead of next year’s national election.
Conversations with friends here in the valleys suggests many can’t wait to vote Reform to give Labour etc a bloody eye. Lot of unhappiness about.
Conversations with friends here in the valleys suggests many can’t wait to vote Reform to give Labour etc a bloody eye. Lot of unhappiness about.
One week on from #LE2025
Our local election forecast was a disaster. It understated Reform in every quarter. Here's what we learned:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
Our local election forecast was a disaster. It understated Reform in every quarter. Here's what we learned:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
May 12, 2025 at 11:11 AM
My bet is that under-estimation of the Reform vote also applies to all Welsh (and perhaps also Scots) polling ahead of next year’s national election.
Conversations with friends here in the valleys suggests many can’t wait to vote Reform to give Labour etc a bloody eye. Lot of unhappiness about.
Conversations with friends here in the valleys suggests many can’t wait to vote Reform to give Labour etc a bloody eye. Lot of unhappiness about.
Who in Labour is currently making the case for a stronger devolution settlement and what is their plan?
Senedd arithmetic aside, when there is a consensus this broad across Welsh society, new powers will have to be devolved. It is amazing though that UK Labour would rather reserve power for as long as possible and see Plaid lead a coalition than devolve power now and help ensure Welsh Labour lead it
May 12, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Who in Labour is currently making the case for a stronger devolution settlement and what is their plan?
Where would 18% put Welsh Labour in the history of Senedd list votes? Marginally more popular than Rod Richards' Welsh Tories in 1999.
May 6, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Where would 18% put Welsh Labour in the history of Senedd list votes? Marginally more popular than Rod Richards' Welsh Tories in 1999.
Reposted by Joe Allen
DSIT has responded, and so I have written a very hasty blog about whether we can find £45bn of savings from AI being implemented in government.
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/04/30/t...
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/04/30/t...
April 30, 2025 at 2:43 PM
DSIT has responded, and so I have written a very hasty blog about whether we can find £45bn of savings from AI being implemented in government.
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/04/30/t...
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/04/30/t...
There is a broad consensus in Wales against energy infrastructure between Reform-Plaid-Tories that will command 70ish Senedd seats (out of 96) next year.
So this is most likely where we'll end up too👇
So this is most likely where we'll end up too👇
May 3, 2025 at 10:47 AM
There is a broad consensus in Wales against energy infrastructure between Reform-Plaid-Tories that will command 70ish Senedd seats (out of 96) next year.
So this is most likely where we'll end up too👇
So this is most likely where we'll end up too👇
A spluttering economic system desperately looking for growth? A society flirting with a Christian revival?
This is the UK's Francis Spufford era.
This is the UK's Francis Spufford era.
April 24, 2025 at 8:22 PM
A spluttering economic system desperately looking for growth? A society flirting with a Christian revival?
This is the UK's Francis Spufford era.
This is the UK's Francis Spufford era.
Reposted by Joe Allen
🚨 Swydd ar gael! We're hiring!
We're looking for a Policy Officer to deliver impactful policy, research and lobbying for TUC Cymru and workers across Wales.
📜 Permanent full time role
💷 58K
📍 Cathedral Rd, Cardiff
💻 50% WFH/Office split
Apply by Tuesday 6th May.
We're looking for a Policy Officer to deliver impactful policy, research and lobbying for TUC Cymru and workers across Wales.
📜 Permanent full time role
💷 58K
📍 Cathedral Rd, Cardiff
💻 50% WFH/Office split
Apply by Tuesday 6th May.
April 14, 2025 at 1:32 PM
🚨 Swydd ar gael! We're hiring!
We're looking for a Policy Officer to deliver impactful policy, research and lobbying for TUC Cymru and workers across Wales.
📜 Permanent full time role
💷 58K
📍 Cathedral Rd, Cardiff
💻 50% WFH/Office split
Apply by Tuesday 6th May.
We're looking for a Policy Officer to deliver impactful policy, research and lobbying for TUC Cymru and workers across Wales.
📜 Permanent full time role
💷 58K
📍 Cathedral Rd, Cardiff
💻 50% WFH/Office split
Apply by Tuesday 6th May.
Reposted by Joe Allen
Happy Bus Services (Wales) Bill day to all who celebrate! 🚌
...we've been waiting a while for this piece of legislation. The lucky buggers in south west Wales will be the first to see the new franchise system rolled out in 2027.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
...we've been waiting a while for this piece of legislation. The lucky buggers in south west Wales will be the first to see the new franchise system rolled out in 2027.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Buses in Wales to be brought under public control
Ministers have promised a
www.bbc.co.uk
March 31, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Happy Bus Services (Wales) Bill day to all who celebrate! 🚌
...we've been waiting a while for this piece of legislation. The lucky buggers in south west Wales will be the first to see the new franchise system rolled out in 2027.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
...we've been waiting a while for this piece of legislation. The lucky buggers in south west Wales will be the first to see the new franchise system rolled out in 2027.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
This is really interesting and wide-ranging (downplaying indy; sceptical on Future Gen Act impact; narrower idea of Nation of Sanctuary).
Bit below caught my eye - suggesting Welsh Labour has gone too far in tackling second homes.
Bit below caught my eye - suggesting Welsh Labour has gone too far in tackling second homes.
March 25, 2025 at 9:34 PM
This is really interesting and wide-ranging (downplaying indy; sceptical on Future Gen Act impact; narrower idea of Nation of Sanctuary).
Bit below caught my eye - suggesting Welsh Labour has gone too far in tackling second homes.
Bit below caught my eye - suggesting Welsh Labour has gone too far in tackling second homes.
Yesterday: New research shows Ceredigion is least affordable place in the UK for first time buyers.
Today: "Save New Quay Car Park" campaign is seeking to stop 30 new affordable homes being built on a car park.
There is, of course, no link between these stories.
Today: "Save New Quay Car Park" campaign is seeking to stop 30 new affordable homes being built on a car park.
There is, of course, no link between these stories.
A petition launched following the submission of plans for an affordable housing scheme in a seaside town car, claims locals are afraid to support the scheme due to ‘a backlash from second-homers’
Petition claims locals are not backing affordable homes plans due to fears of 'second home-owners' backlash
Bruce Sinclair, local democracy reporter A second petition, following the submission of plans for an affordable housing scheme in a seaside town car park has been launched, claiming locals are afraid ...
wp.me
March 25, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Yesterday: New research shows Ceredigion is least affordable place in the UK for first time buyers.
Today: "Save New Quay Car Park" campaign is seeking to stop 30 new affordable homes being built on a car park.
There is, of course, no link between these stories.
Today: "Save New Quay Car Park" campaign is seeking to stop 30 new affordable homes being built on a car park.
There is, of course, no link between these stories.
Hard to listen to this series and not reach the conclusion that Welsh devolution needs a hard reset.
March 6, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Hard to listen to this series and not reach the conclusion that Welsh devolution needs a hard reset.
It is perfectly reasonable to expect the Prince of Wales to speak fluent/near fluent Welsh.
Similarly, it should be expected of any candidate for First Minister.
Similarly, it should be expected of any candidate for First Minister.
William, the Prince of Wales, delivers St David's Day message in Welsh
William, the Prince of Wales, delivers St David's Day message in Welsh
In his first message delivered in Welsh, the Prince of Wales has wished the country a "Happy St David's Day".
news.sky.com
March 2, 2025 at 11:56 AM
It is perfectly reasonable to expect the Prince of Wales to speak fluent/near fluent Welsh.
Similarly, it should be expected of any candidate for First Minister.
Similarly, it should be expected of any candidate for First Minister.
Reposted by Joe Allen
Listening back to last week's episode of Gwleidydda on the potential impact of Reform on next year's Senedd election. Its worth looking at the where those 2019 Labour voters went last year
🟢 20% went to PC and the Greens
❌ 7% didn't vote
🟦 less than 7% went to Reform
🟢 20% went to PC and the Greens
❌ 7% didn't vote
🟦 less than 7% went to Reform
February 24, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Listening back to last week's episode of Gwleidydda on the potential impact of Reform on next year's Senedd election. Its worth looking at the where those 2019 Labour voters went last year
🟢 20% went to PC and the Greens
❌ 7% didn't vote
🟦 less than 7% went to Reform
🟢 20% went to PC and the Greens
❌ 7% didn't vote
🟦 less than 7% went to Reform
The exodus from the Senedd is ultimately a healthy thing.
Opportunity now:
- Broaden candidate base beyond usual suspects so the Senedd better reflects working life in Wales.
- Set out a more ambitious Welsh policy platform freed from lingering inter-personal dynamics that inhibit discussion.
Opportunity now:
- Broaden candidate base beyond usual suspects so the Senedd better reflects working life in Wales.
- Set out a more ambitious Welsh policy platform freed from lingering inter-personal dynamics that inhibit discussion.
February 22, 2025 at 11:08 AM
The exodus from the Senedd is ultimately a healthy thing.
Opportunity now:
- Broaden candidate base beyond usual suspects so the Senedd better reflects working life in Wales.
- Set out a more ambitious Welsh policy platform freed from lingering inter-personal dynamics that inhibit discussion.
Opportunity now:
- Broaden candidate base beyond usual suspects so the Senedd better reflects working life in Wales.
- Set out a more ambitious Welsh policy platform freed from lingering inter-personal dynamics that inhibit discussion.
Gwynedd and Pembrokeshire took action against locals being priced out in favour of second home owners.
And it's working.
And it's working.
February 17, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Gwynedd and Pembrokeshire took action against locals being priced out in favour of second home owners.
And it's working.
And it's working.
Reposted by Joe Allen
This is great news. Making homes more affordable to locals is a good thing. Houses are homes not investments www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Gwynedd house prices plunge as council acts on second homes
House prices in a Welsh county have fallen by more than 12% year-on-year, according to new figures.
www.bbc.co.uk
February 17, 2025 at 7:34 AM
This is great news. Making homes more affordable to locals is a good thing. Houses are homes not investments www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
My biases are in the other direction (I *do* generally think that we've created restrictions on building that go beyond what we can afford).
But this is a good read on the Wylfa controversy and the risks associated with excessive YIMBY glibness.
backofmind.substack.com/p/the-only-g...
But this is a good read on the Wylfa controversy and the risks associated with excessive YIMBY glibness.
backofmind.substack.com/p/the-only-g...
February 15, 2025 at 11:01 AM
My biases are in the other direction (I *do* generally think that we've created restrictions on building that go beyond what we can afford).
But this is a good read on the Wylfa controversy and the risks associated with excessive YIMBY glibness.
backofmind.substack.com/p/the-only-g...
But this is a good read on the Wylfa controversy and the risks associated with excessive YIMBY glibness.
backofmind.substack.com/p/the-only-g...
Sneering comments like this about a politician having previously had a normal job is why Senedd candidate selection over the next few months is so important.
Parties can't keep disproportionately selecting people with no working background beyond politics (1/2)
Parties can't keep disproportionately selecting people with no working background beyond politics (1/2)
February 13, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Sneering comments like this about a politician having previously had a normal job is why Senedd candidate selection over the next few months is so important.
Parties can't keep disproportionately selecting people with no working background beyond politics (1/2)
Parties can't keep disproportionately selecting people with no working background beyond politics (1/2)