Juergen E.L. Meyer, 眼界-Horizon - Shanghai
@jmey.bsky.social
Dr. Jürgen Meyer, Interim Management, Risk Management in China. I post on the economic development of China with view from a company, but taking international relations into. My key topics are finance, risk management, controlling, IT, SAP etc.
15/15
Nevertheless, there can hardly any such complete status quo description on China’s economy been found, which makes the 143 pages highly worth reading.
Nevertheless, there can hardly any such complete status quo description on China’s economy been found, which makes the 143 pages highly worth reading.
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
15/15
Nevertheless, there can hardly any such complete status quo description on China’s economy been found, which makes the 143 pages highly worth reading.
Nevertheless, there can hardly any such complete status quo description on China’s economy been found, which makes the 143 pages highly worth reading.
14/15
... which must end up in big challenges. The report leaves out any shock like another pandemic, any kind of war scenario, a worldwide recession, an extension of the US-China struggle to the financial sector or some other major shock.
... which must end up in big challenges. The report leaves out any shock like another pandemic, any kind of war scenario, a worldwide recession, an extension of the US-China struggle to the financial sector or some other major shock.
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
14/15
... which must end up in big challenges. The report leaves out any shock like another pandemic, any kind of war scenario, a worldwide recession, an extension of the US-China struggle to the financial sector or some other major shock.
... which must end up in big challenges. The report leaves out any shock like another pandemic, any kind of war scenario, a worldwide recession, an extension of the US-China struggle to the financial sector or some other major shock.
13/15
... has to be kept up by balancing the already started cold trade war (“cold” as every heat is yet taken off by mutual agreement or postponement).
The discussion generally describes a very thin path for China’s economy, which looks likely, but depends on a lot of factors, ...
... has to be kept up by balancing the already started cold trade war (“cold” as every heat is yet taken off by mutual agreement or postponement).
The discussion generally describes a very thin path for China’s economy, which looks likely, but depends on a lot of factors, ...
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
13/15
... has to be kept up by balancing the already started cold trade war (“cold” as every heat is yet taken off by mutual agreement or postponement).
The discussion generally describes a very thin path for China’s economy, which looks likely, but depends on a lot of factors, ...
... has to be kept up by balancing the already started cold trade war (“cold” as every heat is yet taken off by mutual agreement or postponement).
The discussion generally describes a very thin path for China’s economy, which looks likely, but depends on a lot of factors, ...
12/15
... creating manufacturing-led productivity growth, and innovation across both emerging and established industries. Shrinking work force needs to be replaced by costly robots. Import of key parts (e.g. semiconductors, some kind of software etc.) ...
... creating manufacturing-led productivity growth, and innovation across both emerging and established industries. Shrinking work force needs to be replaced by costly robots. Import of key parts (e.g. semiconductors, some kind of software etc.) ...
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
12/15
... creating manufacturing-led productivity growth, and innovation across both emerging and established industries. Shrinking work force needs to be replaced by costly robots. Import of key parts (e.g. semiconductors, some kind of software etc.) ...
... creating manufacturing-led productivity growth, and innovation across both emerging and established industries. Shrinking work force needs to be replaced by costly robots. Import of key parts (e.g. semiconductors, some kind of software etc.) ...
11/15
"From within, it will feel relatively weak, as the government supports domestic demand with debt, and ordinary people experience only marginal improvements in their well-being.”
China has to find its way through aging population, still accumulating debt, ...
"From within, it will feel relatively weak, as the government supports domestic demand with debt, and ordinary people experience only marginal improvements in their well-being.”
China has to find its way through aging population, still accumulating debt, ...
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
11/15
"From within, it will feel relatively weak, as the government supports domestic demand with debt, and ordinary people experience only marginal improvements in their well-being.”
China has to find its way through aging population, still accumulating debt, ...
"From within, it will feel relatively weak, as the government supports domestic demand with debt, and ordinary people experience only marginal improvements in their well-being.”
China has to find its way through aging population, still accumulating debt, ...
10/15
In a most likely scenario, “most people will not feel the benefits”. Inequality is likely to worsen. Winners (companies as well as employees) will be concentrated in China’s tech sectors.
From the outside, China will appear strong and their exports keep other countries under economic stress.
In a most likely scenario, “most people will not feel the benefits”. Inequality is likely to worsen. Winners (companies as well as employees) will be concentrated in China’s tech sectors.
From the outside, China will appear strong and their exports keep other countries under economic stress.
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
10/15
In a most likely scenario, “most people will not feel the benefits”. Inequality is likely to worsen. Winners (companies as well as employees) will be concentrated in China’s tech sectors.
From the outside, China will appear strong and their exports keep other countries under economic stress.
In a most likely scenario, “most people will not feel the benefits”. Inequality is likely to worsen. Winners (companies as well as employees) will be concentrated in China’s tech sectors.
From the outside, China will appear strong and their exports keep other countries under economic stress.
9/15
... which would mean a loss in wealth of the population on a much lower level than Japan. But today China is not at that point.
The way out is increased government spending by increased borrowing. The extent of difficulties will be determined by how much and how quickly Beijing borrows.
... which would mean a loss in wealth of the population on a much lower level than Japan. But today China is not at that point.
The way out is increased government spending by increased borrowing. The extent of difficulties will be determined by how much and how quickly Beijing borrows.
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
9/15
... which would mean a loss in wealth of the population on a much lower level than Japan. But today China is not at that point.
The way out is increased government spending by increased borrowing. The extent of difficulties will be determined by how much and how quickly Beijing borrows.
... which would mean a loss in wealth of the population on a much lower level than Japan. But today China is not at that point.
The way out is increased government spending by increased borrowing. The extent of difficulties will be determined by how much and how quickly Beijing borrows.
8/15
Cutting interest rate is discussed and assumed to be part of the solution to some degree in the next years (Japan just did much later in the deflation cycle).
They ask, “Does China Face Its Own Lost Decade?” They discuss “balance sheet recession” by Richard Koo, ...
Cutting interest rate is discussed and assumed to be part of the solution to some degree in the next years (Japan just did much later in the deflation cycle).
They ask, “Does China Face Its Own Lost Decade?” They discuss “balance sheet recession” by Richard Koo, ...
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
8/15
Cutting interest rate is discussed and assumed to be part of the solution to some degree in the next years (Japan just did much later in the deflation cycle).
They ask, “Does China Face Its Own Lost Decade?” They discuss “balance sheet recession” by Richard Koo, ...
Cutting interest rate is discussed and assumed to be part of the solution to some degree in the next years (Japan just did much later in the deflation cycle).
They ask, “Does China Face Its Own Lost Decade?” They discuss “balance sheet recession” by Richard Koo, ...
7/15
An initiative for a “Green Marshall Plan” for the world could be a solution path as well as increasing debt.
The “fiscal hole left by the housing market slump” combined with local authorities’ need for funds and the budget limitations for the cost of debt will define the path for raising debt.
An initiative for a “Green Marshall Plan” for the world could be a solution path as well as increasing debt.
The “fiscal hole left by the housing market slump” combined with local authorities’ need for funds and the budget limitations for the cost of debt will define the path for raising debt.
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
7/15
An initiative for a “Green Marshall Plan” for the world could be a solution path as well as increasing debt.
The “fiscal hole left by the housing market slump” combined with local authorities’ need for funds and the budget limitations for the cost of debt will define the path for raising debt.
An initiative for a “Green Marshall Plan” for the world could be a solution path as well as increasing debt.
The “fiscal hole left by the housing market slump” combined with local authorities’ need for funds and the budget limitations for the cost of debt will define the path for raising debt.
6/15
... overcapacity as part of its growth model, which is up for achieving a dominant market position.
The trade war on tariffs will enable China to do sufficient export to US and EU. The result depends on several items discussed in recent weeks broadly elsewhere.
... overcapacity as part of its growth model, which is up for achieving a dominant market position.
The trade war on tariffs will enable China to do sufficient export to US and EU. The result depends on several items discussed in recent weeks broadly elsewhere.
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
6/15
... overcapacity as part of its growth model, which is up for achieving a dominant market position.
The trade war on tariffs will enable China to do sufficient export to US and EU. The result depends on several items discussed in recent weeks broadly elsewhere.
... overcapacity as part of its growth model, which is up for achieving a dominant market position.
The trade war on tariffs will enable China to do sufficient export to US and EU. The result depends on several items discussed in recent weeks broadly elsewhere.
5/15
... which they both evaluate unlikely.
In summary, they assume China likes to achieve productivity gains in manufacturing through innovation and industrial upgrading. But they expect only nominal rising wages and sufficient revenue from corporate income taxes, because Beijing will accept ...
... which they both evaluate unlikely.
In summary, they assume China likes to achieve productivity gains in manufacturing through innovation and industrial upgrading. But they expect only nominal rising wages and sufficient revenue from corporate income taxes, because Beijing will accept ...
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
5/15
... which they both evaluate unlikely.
In summary, they assume China likes to achieve productivity gains in manufacturing through innovation and industrial upgrading. But they expect only nominal rising wages and sufficient revenue from corporate income taxes, because Beijing will accept ...
... which they both evaluate unlikely.
In summary, they assume China likes to achieve productivity gains in manufacturing through innovation and industrial upgrading. But they expect only nominal rising wages and sufficient revenue from corporate income taxes, because Beijing will accept ...
4/15
... based on (6) Ensuring Export Growth, (7) Threats to Consumption, (8) Local Government Finances, and (9) Challenges due to Banking Sector Stability.
They set up (10) Scenarios for China’s Economic Future for 2035 when either “Beijing Realizes Its Vision” or “Things Fall Apart”, ...
... based on (6) Ensuring Export Growth, (7) Threats to Consumption, (8) Local Government Finances, and (9) Challenges due to Banking Sector Stability.
They set up (10) Scenarios for China’s Economic Future for 2035 when either “Beijing Realizes Its Vision” or “Things Fall Apart”, ...
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
4/15
... based on (6) Ensuring Export Growth, (7) Threats to Consumption, (8) Local Government Finances, and (9) Challenges due to Banking Sector Stability.
They set up (10) Scenarios for China’s Economic Future for 2035 when either “Beijing Realizes Its Vision” or “Things Fall Apart”, ...
... based on (6) Ensuring Export Growth, (7) Threats to Consumption, (8) Local Government Finances, and (9) Challenges due to Banking Sector Stability.
They set up (10) Scenarios for China’s Economic Future for 2035 when either “Beijing Realizes Its Vision” or “Things Fall Apart”, ...
3/15
They assume (chapter 3) the Chinese government will reject to shift toward a consumption-driven economy due to the welfare transfer to households, which comprises substantial increase of government debt.
The authors discuss in detail (4) What Beijing Wants, (5) A New Beijing Growth Model ...
They assume (chapter 3) the Chinese government will reject to shift toward a consumption-driven economy due to the welfare transfer to households, which comprises substantial increase of government debt.
The authors discuss in detail (4) What Beijing Wants, (5) A New Beijing Growth Model ...
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
3/15
They assume (chapter 3) the Chinese government will reject to shift toward a consumption-driven economy due to the welfare transfer to households, which comprises substantial increase of government debt.
The authors discuss in detail (4) What Beijing Wants, (5) A New Beijing Growth Model ...
They assume (chapter 3) the Chinese government will reject to shift toward a consumption-driven economy due to the welfare transfer to households, which comprises substantial increase of government debt.
The authors discuss in detail (4) What Beijing Wants, (5) A New Beijing Growth Model ...
2/15
The publication from the Freeman Chair in China Studies of the Center of Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) supported by Smith Richardson Foundation in September 2025 “strives to assess what China is doing—its plans, goals, and intentions—on [China’s] own terms”.
The publication from the Freeman Chair in China Studies of the Center of Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) supported by Smith Richardson Foundation in September 2025 “strives to assess what China is doing—its plans, goals, and intentions—on [China’s] own terms”.
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
2/15
The publication from the Freeman Chair in China Studies of the Center of Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) supported by Smith Richardson Foundation in September 2025 “strives to assess what China is doing—its plans, goals, and intentions—on [China’s] own terms”.
The publication from the Freeman Chair in China Studies of the Center of Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) supported by Smith Richardson Foundation in September 2025 “strives to assess what China is doing—its plans, goals, and intentions—on [China’s] own terms”.
But he just got 1 cup of tea at his place, like in Lhasa 10 day ago
September 6, 2025 at 10:37 AM
But he just got 1 cup of tea at his place, like in Lhasa 10 day ago
8/8
After Trump has shown how easy tariffs can be set up, it will be no wonder if other countries will start to copy that - but just for the good reason to protect their own economy from foreign deflation export.
After Trump has shown how easy tariffs can be set up, it will be no wonder if other countries will start to copy that - but just for the good reason to protect their own economy from foreign deflation export.
September 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
8/8
After Trump has shown how easy tariffs can be set up, it will be no wonder if other countries will start to copy that - but just for the good reason to protect their own economy from foreign deflation export.
After Trump has shown how easy tariffs can be set up, it will be no wonder if other countries will start to copy that - but just for the good reason to protect their own economy from foreign deflation export.
7/8
The products of Chinese overcapacities are exported with low prices and transfer the negative consequence of local Chinese deflation to other countries. China is not willing to fight deflation just by themselves.
The products of Chinese overcapacities are exported with low prices and transfer the negative consequence of local Chinese deflation to other countries. China is not willing to fight deflation just by themselves.
September 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
7/8
The products of Chinese overcapacities are exported with low prices and transfer the negative consequence of local Chinese deflation to other countries. China is not willing to fight deflation just by themselves.
The products of Chinese overcapacities are exported with low prices and transfer the negative consequence of local Chinese deflation to other countries. China is not willing to fight deflation just by themselves.
6/8
... and if deadly competitive prices squeeze profit margins to the lowest, GDP is becoming a doubtful indicator for the wealth of the country.
Typical, although not substantial, is the observation that the anthracite asphalt of the parking space at a mall here in Shanghai was painted anthracite.
... and if deadly competitive prices squeeze profit margins to the lowest, GDP is becoming a doubtful indicator for the wealth of the country.
Typical, although not substantial, is the observation that the anthracite asphalt of the parking space at a mall here in Shanghai was painted anthracite.
September 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
6/8
... and if deadly competitive prices squeeze profit margins to the lowest, GDP is becoming a doubtful indicator for the wealth of the country.
Typical, although not substantial, is the observation that the anthracite asphalt of the parking space at a mall here in Shanghai was painted anthracite.
... and if deadly competitive prices squeeze profit margins to the lowest, GDP is becoming a doubtful indicator for the wealth of the country.
Typical, although not substantial, is the observation that the anthracite asphalt of the parking space at a mall here in Shanghai was painted anthracite.
5/ 8
Additionally, by creating overcapacities in high-technology sectors, China keeps up GDP just to keep their own forecasts. The question is: What for?
If the high GDP is not keeping employees throughout the economy in their jobs - and many just get 70% of their salary or lose their job fully -...
Additionally, by creating overcapacities in high-technology sectors, China keeps up GDP just to keep their own forecasts. The question is: What for?
If the high GDP is not keeping employees throughout the economy in their jobs - and many just get 70% of their salary or lose their job fully -...
September 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
5/ 8
Additionally, by creating overcapacities in high-technology sectors, China keeps up GDP just to keep their own forecasts. The question is: What for?
If the high GDP is not keeping employees throughout the economy in their jobs - and many just get 70% of their salary or lose their job fully -...
Additionally, by creating overcapacities in high-technology sectors, China keeps up GDP just to keep their own forecasts. The question is: What for?
If the high GDP is not keeping employees throughout the economy in their jobs - and many just get 70% of their salary or lose their job fully -...
4/8
Is China exporting its deflation?
A bubble in one branch like the property sector in China has many indirect effects to other businesses in other branches in the same region. Demand is reduced overall and everyone in the economy suffers. This is the direct effect within the country.
Is China exporting its deflation?
A bubble in one branch like the property sector in China has many indirect effects to other businesses in other branches in the same region. Demand is reduced overall and everyone in the economy suffers. This is the direct effect within the country.
September 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
4/8
Is China exporting its deflation?
A bubble in one branch like the property sector in China has many indirect effects to other businesses in other branches in the same region. Demand is reduced overall and everyone in the economy suffers. This is the direct effect within the country.
Is China exporting its deflation?
A bubble in one branch like the property sector in China has many indirect effects to other businesses in other branches in the same region. Demand is reduced overall and everyone in the economy suffers. This is the direct effect within the country.
3/8
Different effects add up: Chinese exports to Asian countries have doubled and economic slowdown in other countries threaten at the same time. Salaries are not rising as in years before, and central bankers are still hesitating. Upcoming American tariffs will reduce exports to the US.
Different effects add up: Chinese exports to Asian countries have doubled and economic slowdown in other countries threaten at the same time. Salaries are not rising as in years before, and central bankers are still hesitating. Upcoming American tariffs will reduce exports to the US.
September 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
3/8
Different effects add up: Chinese exports to Asian countries have doubled and economic slowdown in other countries threaten at the same time. Salaries are not rising as in years before, and central bankers are still hesitating. Upcoming American tariffs will reduce exports to the US.
Different effects add up: Chinese exports to Asian countries have doubled and economic slowdown in other countries threaten at the same time. Salaries are not rising as in years before, and central bankers are still hesitating. Upcoming American tariffs will reduce exports to the US.
2/8
Disinflationary (= declining, but still positive inflation rates) tendencies are all around in Asian economies. And they started before Trump's tariffs, and despite the big trade wave before expected US tariffs became effective.
The Economist article picks up this important finding.
Disinflationary (= declining, but still positive inflation rates) tendencies are all around in Asian economies. And they started before Trump's tariffs, and despite the big trade wave before expected US tariffs became effective.
The Economist article picks up this important finding.
September 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
2/8
Disinflationary (= declining, but still positive inflation rates) tendencies are all around in Asian economies. And they started before Trump's tariffs, and despite the big trade wave before expected US tariffs became effective.
The Economist article picks up this important finding.
Disinflationary (= declining, but still positive inflation rates) tendencies are all around in Asian economies. And they started before Trump's tariffs, and despite the big trade wave before expected US tariffs became effective.
The Economist article picks up this important finding.
6/6
... Then enterprises will* have no need to rush into cutting prices just to survive.” (* it should be 'would'!)
Are dreams the only thing left?
... Then enterprises will* have no need to rush into cutting prices just to survive.” (* it should be 'would'!)
Are dreams the only thing left?
July 25, 2025 at 8:21 AM
6/6
... Then enterprises will* have no need to rush into cutting prices just to survive.” (* it should be 'would'!)
Are dreams the only thing left?
... Then enterprises will* have no need to rush into cutting prices just to survive.” (* it should be 'would'!)
Are dreams the only thing left?