Juergen E.L. Meyer, 眼界-Horizon - Shanghai
@jmey.bsky.social
Dr. Jürgen Meyer, Interim Management, Risk Management in China. I post on the economic development of China with view from a company, but taking international relations into. My key topics are finance, risk management, controlling, IT, SAP etc.
1/15
Dinny McMahon and Andrew Polk published a concise report on “China’s Economic Transition Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035”. It gives an almost complete picture of the situation China is in.
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/...
Dinny McMahon and Andrew Polk published a concise report on “China’s Economic Transition Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035”. It gives an almost complete picture of the situation China is in.
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/...
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 AM
1/15
Dinny McMahon and Andrew Polk published a concise report on “China’s Economic Transition Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035”. It gives an almost complete picture of the situation China is in.
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/...
Dinny McMahon and Andrew Polk published a concise report on “China’s Economic Transition Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035”. It gives an almost complete picture of the situation China is in.
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/...
1/8
Not just China, but other Asian countries suffer from low inflation (beyond Japan and Bangladesh). And it is not the Trumpian tariffs to be blamed for that!
This is the topic of the latest Economist article.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Not just China, but other Asian countries suffer from low inflation (beyond Japan and Bangladesh). And it is not the Trumpian tariffs to be blamed for that!
This is the topic of the latest Economist article.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
The threat of deflation stalks Asia’s economies
Blame China, slumping commodities and creaky growth
www.economist.com
September 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
1/8
Not just China, but other Asian countries suffer from low inflation (beyond Japan and Bangladesh). And it is not the Trumpian tariffs to be blamed for that!
This is the topic of the latest Economist article.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Not just China, but other Asian countries suffer from low inflation (beyond Japan and Bangladesh). And it is not the Trumpian tariffs to be blamed for that!
This is the topic of the latest Economist article.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
1/6
Caxin describes the “national industrial capacity utilization rate fell to 74%." Qiushi is cited with “in involution-style competition, everyone is worse off” The article finally talking about a ‘lose-lose situation’ - never heard that term before.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-07-24/i...
Caxin describes the “national industrial capacity utilization rate fell to 74%." Qiushi is cited with “in involution-style competition, everyone is worse off” The article finally talking about a ‘lose-lose situation’ - never heard that term before.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-07-24/i...
In Depth: China Intensifies War on Toxic Competition as Economy Suffers
Policymakers aren’t just focusing on the demand-supply imbalance anymore, but trying to tackle deeper problems, including local government subsidies and unfair corporate practices
www.caixinglobal.com
July 25, 2025 at 8:21 AM
1/6
Caxin describes the “national industrial capacity utilization rate fell to 74%." Qiushi is cited with “in involution-style competition, everyone is worse off” The article finally talking about a ‘lose-lose situation’ - never heard that term before.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-07-24/i...
Caxin describes the “national industrial capacity utilization rate fell to 74%." Qiushi is cited with “in involution-style competition, everyone is worse off” The article finally talking about a ‘lose-lose situation’ - never heard that term before.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-07-24/i...
1/11
In a Monday article in China’s party bulletin Qiushi an anonymous writer named Giant Power addresses the limitations of market mechanisms and ruining price competition among Chinese companies due to wrong economic policies and regional government behavior.
www.qstheory.cn/20250629/6d6...
In a Monday article in China’s party bulletin Qiushi an anonymous writer named Giant Power addresses the limitations of market mechanisms and ruining price competition among Chinese companies due to wrong economic policies and regional government behavior.
www.qstheory.cn/20250629/6d6...
深刻认识和综合整治“内卷式”竞争 - 求是网
深刻认识和综合整治“内卷式”竞争-三、如何有效整治“内卷式”竞争。
www.qstheory.cn
July 3, 2025 at 2:12 AM
1/11
In a Monday article in China’s party bulletin Qiushi an anonymous writer named Giant Power addresses the limitations of market mechanisms and ruining price competition among Chinese companies due to wrong economic policies and regional government behavior.
www.qstheory.cn/20250629/6d6...
In a Monday article in China’s party bulletin Qiushi an anonymous writer named Giant Power addresses the limitations of market mechanisms and ruining price competition among Chinese companies due to wrong economic policies and regional government behavior.
www.qstheory.cn/20250629/6d6...
Can a book gain relevance over time? Yes, it can, if times get worse. This can be seen in Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis: “Trade Wars Are Class Wars”! yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
Trade Wars Are Class Wars
A provocative look at how today’s trade conflicts are caused by governments promoting the interests of elites at the expense of workers Winner of the Lio...
yalebooks.yale.edu
June 21, 2025 at 4:07 AM
Can a book gain relevance over time? Yes, it can, if times get worse. This can be seen in Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis: “Trade Wars Are Class Wars”! yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
Beware of such a believer!
"Most importantly, the president and his inner circle—…—do subscribe to a global value system.
www.economist.com/internationa...
"Most importantly, the president and his inner circle—…—do subscribe to a global value system.
www.economist.com/internationa...
Why Donald Trump is a globalist
The mystery of an America First president fascinated by foreigners’ disputes
www.economist.com
May 16, 2025 at 3:30 AM
Beware of such a believer!
"Most importantly, the president and his inner circle—…—do subscribe to a global value system.
www.economist.com/internationa...
"Most importantly, the president and his inner circle—…—do subscribe to a global value system.
www.economist.com/internationa...
Twenty Lessons, read by John Lithgow
Key selections from
On Tyranny by Timothy Snyder
snyder.substack.com/p/twenty-les...
Key selections from
On Tyranny by Timothy Snyder
snyder.substack.com/p/twenty-les...
Twenty Lessons, read by John Lithgow
Key selections from On Tyranny, for viewing and sharing
snyder.substack.com
April 15, 2025 at 6:30 AM
Twenty Lessons, read by John Lithgow
Key selections from
On Tyranny by Timothy Snyder
snyder.substack.com/p/twenty-les...
Key selections from
On Tyranny by Timothy Snyder
snyder.substack.com/p/twenty-les...
Reposted by Juergen E.L. Meyer, 眼界-Horizon - Shanghai
1/12
Yicai: "China will further strengthen the role of domestic consumption in driving economic growth this year to offset the impact of weaker external demand caused by higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to...
www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-t...
Yicai: "China will further strengthen the role of domestic consumption in driving economic growth this year to offset the impact of weaker external demand caused by higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to...
www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-t...
China to Boost Consumption to Counter US Tariffs, Think Tank Says
www.yicaiglobal.com
April 2, 2025 at 2:59 AM
1/12
Yicai: "China will further strengthen the role of domestic consumption in driving economic growth this year to offset the impact of weaker external demand caused by higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to...
www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-t...
Yicai: "China will further strengthen the role of domestic consumption in driving economic growth this year to offset the impact of weaker external demand caused by higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to...
www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-t...
Brad Setser writes about "Xi Is Making the World Pay for China’s Mistakes" in The New York Times.
“Countries around the world get cheap Chinese products, but they can’t sell nearly as many of their own to China.
Why is Mr. Xi doing this?”
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
“Countries around the world get cheap Chinese products, but they can’t sell nearly as many of their own to China.
Why is Mr. Xi doing this?”
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
Opinion | Xi Is Making the World Pay for China’s Economic Blunders (Gift Article)
Trump’s tariffs are bad enough, but Xi is fundamentally distorting world trade to dig China out of the hole its economic decisions have created.
www.nytimes.com
February 20, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Brad Setser writes about "Xi Is Making the World Pay for China’s Mistakes" in The New York Times.
“Countries around the world get cheap Chinese products, but they can’t sell nearly as many of their own to China.
Why is Mr. Xi doing this?”
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
“Countries around the world get cheap Chinese products, but they can’t sell nearly as many of their own to China.
Why is Mr. Xi doing this?”
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
1/5 The Economist's editorial today about the Trump Doctrine.
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
Donald Trump will upend 80 years of American foreign policy
A superpower’s approach to the world is about to be turned on its head
www.economist.com
January 17, 2025 at 4:37 AM
1/5 The Economist's editorial today about the Trump Doctrine.
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
Eigentlich wollte ich mich hier aus deutscher Politik heraushalten. Aber dieser Beitrag von Veit Medick, Leiter Politikressort „Stern“ bei Caren Miosgas Talkshow triff nicht nur den Nagel auf den Kopf, sondern spricht mir aus der Seele:
x.com/i/status/187... (Dauer: 1:52 - leider nur Twitter)
x.com/i/status/187... (Dauer: 1:52 - leider nur Twitter)
x.com
x.com
January 14, 2025 at 5:34 AM
Eigentlich wollte ich mich hier aus deutscher Politik heraushalten. Aber dieser Beitrag von Veit Medick, Leiter Politikressort „Stern“ bei Caren Miosgas Talkshow triff nicht nur den Nagel auf den Kopf, sondern spricht mir aus der Seele:
x.com/i/status/187... (Dauer: 1:52 - leider nur Twitter)
x.com/i/status/187... (Dauer: 1:52 - leider nur Twitter)
1/11 Wu Xiaoying very specifically addresses inefficiencies in Chinese economy in the current century. He focuses on market bearing institutions, which are designed for reliable and persisting fundaments that market exchange can create effectivity.
www.eastisread.com/p/harry-x-wu...
www.eastisread.com/p/harry-x-wu...
Harry X. Wu warns declining Total Factor Productivity drags down China's economy
Peking University professor says TFP is essentially an institutional one—how to design an economic system that safeguards freedom and ensures fair competition through the rule of law.
www.eastisread.com
January 13, 2025 at 9:10 AM
1/11 Wu Xiaoying very specifically addresses inefficiencies in Chinese economy in the current century. He focuses on market bearing institutions, which are designed for reliable and persisting fundaments that market exchange can create effectivity.
www.eastisread.com/p/harry-x-wu...
www.eastisread.com/p/harry-x-wu...
1/4 I wanna leave it open where to find the smartest economists, but it is clear to me, that not everyone is smart who talks about economy. That is what economy and soccer (and maybe many other sports) have in common: So many seem to know it better than the best team coach.
1/16
"Free trade is perhaps the closest thing to a universally held value among economists."
The problem is not that "free trade" is in fact a bad thing. It is that most economists don't seem to have a sense of what "free trade" actually looks like.
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/b...
"Free trade is perhaps the closest thing to a universally held value among economists."
The problem is not that "free trade" is in fact a bad thing. It is that most economists don't seem to have a sense of what "free trade" actually looks like.
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/b...
Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence?
Economists have long helped to shape policy on issues like taxes and health care. But flawed forecasts and arcane language have cost them credibility.
www.nytimes.com
January 12, 2025 at 11:18 AM
1/4 I wanna leave it open where to find the smartest economists, but it is clear to me, that not everyone is smart who talks about economy. That is what economy and soccer (and maybe many other sports) have in common: So many seem to know it better than the best team coach.
You only have a chance to launch a software product in China, if you have developed it in China.
www.scmp.com/tech/big-tec...
www.scmp.com/tech/big-tec...
Apple forms Shanghai data-processing venture as AI push in China still in limbo
The Shanghai unit of Apple will focus on software development, big data services, storage services and data processing.
www.scmp.com
January 11, 2025 at 2:01 AM
You only have a chance to launch a software product in China, if you have developed it in China.
www.scmp.com/tech/big-tec...
www.scmp.com/tech/big-tec...
1/5
"China's fiscal firepower" is under review, the Economist is talking about it. But is that the key point of the current situation? Isn't it more important, what China is doing with another yuan borrowed?
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
"China's fiscal firepower" is under review, the Economist is talking about it. But is that the key point of the current situation? Isn't it more important, what China is doing with another yuan borrowed?
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
Does China have the fiscal firepower to rescue its economy?
There is a fierce debate over whether it can afford to keep spending
www.economist.com
January 10, 2025 at 12:46 AM
1/5
"China's fiscal firepower" is under review, the Economist is talking about it. But is that the key point of the current situation? Isn't it more important, what China is doing with another yuan borrowed?
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
"China's fiscal firepower" is under review, the Economist is talking about it. But is that the key point of the current situation? Isn't it more important, what China is doing with another yuan borrowed?
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
The end of 2025 joke:
The Bay Area tech CEO from US and the CEO from Zhongguancun, China's Silicon Valley, were meeting in Trump's stomach. "How do you come here?" the Chinese is questioned. "Oh, Donald has eaten me all up!" he replies, "and what about you? How do you American come here?"
1/2
The Bay Area tech CEO from US and the CEO from Zhongguancun, China's Silicon Valley, were meeting in Trump's stomach. "How do you come here?" the Chinese is questioned. "Oh, Donald has eaten me all up!" he replies, "and what about you? How do you American come here?"
1/2
Jeff Bezos never wanted this cartoon to become public.
He killed it, and as a result, pulitzer prize editorial cartoonist Ann Telnaes quit.
Make sure everyone sees this cartoon.
He killed it, and as a result, pulitzer prize editorial cartoonist Ann Telnaes quit.
Make sure everyone sees this cartoon.
January 5, 2025 at 2:35 PM
The end of 2025 joke:
The Bay Area tech CEO from US and the CEO from Zhongguancun, China's Silicon Valley, were meeting in Trump's stomach. "How do you come here?" the Chinese is questioned. "Oh, Donald has eaten me all up!" he replies, "and what about you? How do you American come here?"
1/2
The Bay Area tech CEO from US and the CEO from Zhongguancun, China's Silicon Valley, were meeting in Trump's stomach. "How do you come here?" the Chinese is questioned. "Oh, Donald has eaten me all up!" he replies, "and what about you? How do you American come here?"
1/2
Chinese automotive industry current declares the short-term lower price limit = total variable cost (without amortization and return on development cost) as standard. 1/2
mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIx...
mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIx...
In China, profit margins slip again amid pricing battle
http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMDc2Nzg1Ng==&mid=2247537014&idx=1&sn=d5a9b6356bd33ba11b79e61549b9e7e4&chksm=96bd3b0697fb968f23f0beb9dece52727accc661f281f935c28429881cb063ff7e000a4e41c0&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=1231Ems8ljZSrX8eeZ8B4Gd3&sharer_shareinfo=bc9b33e0e21ee50eb0b518258c917796&sharer_shareinfo_first=bc9b33e0e21ee50eb0b518258c917796#rd]
December 31, 2024 at 4:25 AM
Chinese automotive industry current declares the short-term lower price limit = total variable cost (without amortization and return on development cost) as standard. 1/2
mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIx...
mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIx...
The limits of BRICS solidarity?
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
What happens next to workers in 'slavery-like conditions' at BYD's site in Brazil?
Officials negotiate with BYD and the Jinjiang Group about further measures to protect the workers.
www.reuters.com
December 28, 2024 at 8:18 AM
The limits of BRICS solidarity?
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
How can an author from free Europe and long time involved in Politics, when writing about "China’s New Social Contract", not even mention the security of the CCP as a key focus of Chinese government?
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/f...
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/f...
China’s New Social Contract | by Ana Palacio - Project Syndicate
Ana Palacio highlights a fundamental shift in priorities brought about by slowing growth and changing public expectations.
www.project-syndicate.org
December 21, 2024 at 2:43 PM
How can an author from free Europe and long time involved in Politics, when writing about "China’s New Social Contract", not even mention the security of the CCP as a key focus of Chinese government?
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/f...
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/f...
Reposted by Juergen E.L. Meyer, 眼界-Horizon - Shanghai
My most recent piece for China Reform Imperative points out that China's medium- to long-term GDP growth rate must be less than the medium- to long-term growth rate of its total consumption, and the more effectively it rebalances, the greater the gap must be.
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/1...
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/1...
Impact of Household Consumption Growth on China’s GDP Growth
If China’s average consumption growth rate is indeed 3–4 percent over the next five to ten years, that must also be the upper limit of China’s GDP growth rate.
carnegieendowment.org
December 16, 2024 at 12:16 PM
My most recent piece for China Reform Imperative points out that China's medium- to long-term GDP growth rate must be less than the medium- to long-term growth rate of its total consumption, and the more effectively it rebalances, the greater the gap must be.
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/1...
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/1...
1/ Caixin reports on the politburo decision to “vigorously boost consumption” as top task for 2025. That is really almost 18 months after the start of deflation in China. The new China speed? No, it is conflicting interests. www.caixinglobal.com/2024-12-09/c...
China to Loosen Monetary Policy in 2025 to Spur Growth
Politburo changes its “prudent” monetary stance for first time since 2010
www.caixinglobal.com
December 10, 2024 at 4:22 AM
1/ Caixin reports on the politburo decision to “vigorously boost consumption” as top task for 2025. That is really almost 18 months after the start of deflation in China. The new China speed? No, it is conflicting interests. www.caixinglobal.com/2024-12-09/c...
Extreme but worth to watch [37:41 minutes]! In this session, Professor Michael Beckley will provide a compelling analysis of China's economic slowdown and its far-reaching consequences for global stability. www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEJc...
The End of China's Rise and the Future of World Order│Michael Beckley (Tufts University, Professor)
YouTube video by World Knowledge Forum
www.youtube.com
December 9, 2024 at 4:28 PM
Extreme but worth to watch [37:41 minutes]! In this session, Professor Michael Beckley will provide a compelling analysis of China's economic slowdown and its far-reaching consequences for global stability. www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEJc...
Reposted by Juergen E.L. Meyer, 眼界-Horizon - Shanghai
1/10
I've had many discussions about trade and industrial policy since Lighthizer's article came out, and it seems to me that there is a lot of confusion about just what constitutes "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies.
www.ft.com/content/c72f...
I've had many discussions about trade and industrial policy since Lighthizer's article came out, and it seems to me that there is a lot of confusion about just what constitutes "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies.
www.ft.com/content/c72f...
Donald Trump’s trade remedies reflect America’s troubled reality
Our partners shouldn’t blame us for a shift aimed at solving the problems they have caused
www.ft.com
November 3, 2024 at 8:25 AM
1/10
I've had many discussions about trade and industrial policy since Lighthizer's article came out, and it seems to me that there is a lot of confusion about just what constitutes "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies.
www.ft.com/content/c72f...
I've had many discussions about trade and industrial policy since Lighthizer's article came out, and it seems to me that there is a lot of confusion about just what constitutes "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies.
www.ft.com/content/c72f...
“While China’s sanctions today target defence and drone manufacturers, tomorrow they will almost certainly expand to other sectors as US-China relations worsen."
2/2
ft.com/content/b11045
2/2
ft.com/content/b11045
ft.com
November 1, 2024 at 2:48 AM
“While China’s sanctions today target defence and drone manufacturers, tomorrow they will almost certainly expand to other sectors as US-China relations worsen."
2/2
ft.com/content/b11045
2/2
ft.com/content/b11045
reposting of Byron Wan from 31. Oct. 2024:
Skydio, America’s largest drone maker and a supplier to Ukraine’s military, faces a supply chain crisis after Beijing imposed sanctions on the company, including banning Chinese groups from providing it with critical components. ...
x.com/Byron_Wan/st...
Skydio, America’s largest drone maker and a supplier to Ukraine’s military, faces a supply chain crisis after Beijing imposed sanctions on the company, including banning Chinese groups from providing it with critical components. ...
x.com/Byron_Wan/st...
x.com
x.com
November 1, 2024 at 2:44 AM
reposting of Byron Wan from 31. Oct. 2024:
Skydio, America’s largest drone maker and a supplier to Ukraine’s military, faces a supply chain crisis after Beijing imposed sanctions on the company, including banning Chinese groups from providing it with critical components. ...
x.com/Byron_Wan/st...
Skydio, America’s largest drone maker and a supplier to Ukraine’s military, faces a supply chain crisis after Beijing imposed sanctions on the company, including banning Chinese groups from providing it with critical components. ...
x.com/Byron_Wan/st...