Jake Rubinstein
@jlrube.jakerubinstein.com
Splitting time between here and my X. Slowly migrating.
/ Survey Methods / random pictures of my cat / #f1 / US politics
Data/Polling/Quant methods at HIT Strategies.
More active on the birdsite with the same handle
https://linktr.ee/jlrube
/ Survey Methods / random pictures of my cat / #f1 / US politics
Data/Polling/Quant methods at HIT Strategies.
More active on the birdsite with the same handle
https://linktr.ee/jlrube
🧵 The data you have all been waiting for!
The NYC mayoral primary WITHOUT batch elimination (and some early analysis)
1) Zohran's first round (469,642) would have been enough to win against Cuomo's final round (443,229)
The NYC mayoral primary WITHOUT batch elimination (and some early analysis)
1) Zohran's first round (469,642) would have been enough to win against Cuomo's final round (443,229)
July 22, 2025 at 11:46 PM
🧵 The data you have all been waiting for!
The NYC mayoral primary WITHOUT batch elimination (and some early analysis)
1) Zohran's first round (469,642) would have been enough to win against Cuomo's final round (443,229)
The NYC mayoral primary WITHOUT batch elimination (and some early analysis)
1) Zohran's first round (469,642) would have been enough to win against Cuomo's final round (443,229)
Okay, I've got some questions about the region definitions in the new Suffolk Boston Mayoral Poll
July 21, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Okay, I've got some questions about the region definitions in the new Suffolk Boston Mayoral Poll
Just about 20k of them
July 15, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Just about 20k of them
No, there were only about 13k Wiley only voters.
More so that Wiley voters ranked other folks who had already been eliminated (e.g. Stringer, Morales, and Donovan)
More so that Wiley voters ranked other folks who had already been eliminated (e.g. Stringer, Morales, and Donovan)
July 15, 2025 at 5:13 PM
No, there were only about 13k Wiley only voters.
More so that Wiley voters ranked other folks who had already been eliminated (e.g. Stringer, Morales, and Donovan)
More so that Wiley voters ranked other folks who had already been eliminated (e.g. Stringer, Morales, and Donovan)
At the moment no, because I'm in the middle of reworking my code to prep for 2025. But NYCCFB reports there were about 125k bullet voters for mayor and about half of those were for Adams
This is an older table I ran on most common ballots which is also helpful context here.
This is an older table I ran on most common ballots which is also helpful context here.
July 15, 2025 at 4:44 PM
At the moment no, because I'm in the middle of reworking my code to prep for 2025. But NYCCFB reports there were about 125k bullet voters for mayor and about half of those were for Adams
This is an older table I ran on most common ballots which is also helpful context here.
This is an older table I ran on most common ballots which is also helpful context here.
Did you ever wonder what the 2021 NYC mayoral looked like as a Sankey Diagram?
Well, wait no longer
Well, wait no longer
July 15, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Did you ever wonder what the 2021 NYC mayoral looked like as a Sankey Diagram?
Well, wait no longer
Well, wait no longer
I tried to think where I might have seen a similar pattern and know I have data. Only example I thought of is Obama 08 in GA.
We saw Black turnout surge more traditionally, white turnout was also up, but Black surged more.
But Black share of the electorate was only up 5pp
We saw Black turnout surge more traditionally, white turnout was also up, but Black surged more.
But Black share of the electorate was only up 5pp
June 30, 2025 at 1:09 PM
I tried to think where I might have seen a similar pattern and know I have data. Only example I thought of is Obama 08 in GA.
We saw Black turnout surge more traditionally, white turnout was also up, but Black surged more.
But Black share of the electorate was only up 5pp
We saw Black turnout surge more traditionally, white turnout was also up, but Black surged more.
But Black share of the electorate was only up 5pp
Jeez, Cuomo really did suggest Obama was Shucking and Jiving
June 5, 2025 at 12:20 AM
Jeez, Cuomo really did suggest Obama was Shucking and Jiving
✨Manifesting for the NYC mayoral debate✨
June 4, 2025 at 11:14 PM
✨Manifesting for the NYC mayoral debate✨
This is an incredible burn rate without any TV spending from Kraft. Wu is much closer to normal for this part of the year, and had cash on hand already.
May 28, 2025 at 6:46 PM
This is an incredible burn rate without any TV spending from Kraft. Wu is much closer to normal for this part of the year, and had cash on hand already.
Somehow this is not AI
May 23, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Somehow this is not AI
Cool shell formation on my beach walk
May 16, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Cool shell formation on my beach walk
Chunk Norris is cheering for Chunk of Gold in the Derby because they have the same first name
May 3, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Chunk Norris is cheering for Chunk of Gold in the Derby because they have the same first name
Incredible. It appears as though I was right and they needed to form a PAC.
The ironic part, is the only reason I even looked closer is because they threw shade at David Ortiz
The ironic part, is the only reason I even looked closer is because they threw shade at David Ortiz
May 2, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Incredible. It appears as though I was right and they needed to form a PAC.
The ironic part, is the only reason I even looked closer is because they threw shade at David Ortiz
The ironic part, is the only reason I even looked closer is because they threw shade at David Ortiz
Incredible, over on the bird site the AntiWuCoaltion twitter account appears to have just fully admitted to violating campaign fiance laws
May 2, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Incredible, over on the bird site the AntiWuCoaltion twitter account appears to have just fully admitted to violating campaign fiance laws
Update!
The AntiWuCoalition has removed their donation link. Glad they're working to be in compliance with the law.
Free tip for whoever is running it, check with OCPF to see what you need to do be fully compliant They're the most useful agency in MA gov if you're proactive
The AntiWuCoalition has removed their donation link. Glad they're working to be in compliance with the law.
Free tip for whoever is running it, check with OCPF to see what you need to do be fully compliant They're the most useful agency in MA gov if you're proactive
May 2, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Update!
The AntiWuCoalition has removed their donation link. Glad they're working to be in compliance with the law.
Free tip for whoever is running it, check with OCPF to see what you need to do be fully compliant They're the most useful agency in MA gov if you're proactive
The AntiWuCoalition has removed their donation link. Glad they're working to be in compliance with the law.
Free tip for whoever is running it, check with OCPF to see what you need to do be fully compliant They're the most useful agency in MA gov if you're proactive
Tim Scott pre-registering his chick-fil-a purchases is wild
May 2, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Tim Scott pre-registering his chick-fil-a purchases is wild
It’s been a minute since I did MA campaign finance work, but I’m pretty sure that if you form an org to oppose a candidate and solicit contributions, you’re required to register with OCPF.
It appears that “Bostonians Against Mayor Wu” hasn’t registered at all.
It appears that “Bostonians Against Mayor Wu” hasn’t registered at all.
May 1, 2025 at 9:35 PM
It’s been a minute since I did MA campaign finance work, but I’m pretty sure that if you form an org to oppose a candidate and solicit contributions, you’re required to register with OCPF.
It appears that “Bostonians Against Mayor Wu” hasn’t registered at all.
It appears that “Bostonians Against Mayor Wu” hasn’t registered at all.
🧵
Measuring knowledge is one of the hardest tasks in question writing, and this example shows how seemingly good questions can miss.
This seems like a reasonable question:
"Here are 4 definitions—which one is correct?"
If you know the answer, great, click it and move on
1/7
Measuring knowledge is one of the hardest tasks in question writing, and this example shows how seemingly good questions can miss.
This seems like a reasonable question:
"Here are 4 definitions—which one is correct?"
If you know the answer, great, click it and move on
1/7
April 25, 2025 at 4:50 PM
🧵
Measuring knowledge is one of the hardest tasks in question writing, and this example shows how seemingly good questions can miss.
This seems like a reasonable question:
"Here are 4 definitions—which one is correct?"
If you know the answer, great, click it and move on
1/7
Measuring knowledge is one of the hardest tasks in question writing, and this example shows how seemingly good questions can miss.
This seems like a reasonable question:
"Here are 4 definitions—which one is correct?"
If you know the answer, great, click it and move on
1/7
I haven't seen a fresh NYC mayoral poll to QT recently, but since Zohran is running his first ads tonight, figured I'd re-up my series on "what the polls said at this point in 2021"
Adams had started to pick up steam
Wiley and Garcia were both still in single digits
Adams had started to pick up steam
Wiley and Garcia were both still in single digits
April 24, 2025 at 10:21 PM
I haven't seen a fresh NYC mayoral poll to QT recently, but since Zohran is running his first ads tonight, figured I'd re-up my series on "what the polls said at this point in 2021"
Adams had started to pick up steam
Wiley and Garcia were both still in single digits
Adams had started to pick up steam
Wiley and Garcia were both still in single digits
Jews born on April 16th really have the worst luck over the next 1000 years.
April 10, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Jews born on April 16th really have the worst luck over the next 1000 years.
This formula seems wrong 🤣
April 10, 2025 at 12:31 AM
This formula seems wrong 🤣
Haven't seen this meme template in a while
April 7, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Haven't seen this meme template in a while
April 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM