Bonne chance Marie!!!

Indeed but the spin Putin was projecting was that he’s treated as a leader of a superpower. Plus on nuclear, Russia kind of still is a super power. That’s not a moral judgement, just a comment on its nuclear arsenal.

6/ Finally, for Russia, maybe the main goal is what I mentioned before: neutralize the US as much as possible from Ukraine, militarily and diplomatically. And in that, Putin may be slowly succeeding I am afraid. Let's see what Zelenskyy's Monday meeting w/ Trump brings.

5/ Still, Kyiv is ready for a ceasefire - if coupled with continued military aid (ie a security guarantee against another RU attack) and no de iure concessions. Why would Putin go for such deal now isn't clear: after 3.5 yrs of full-scale war, he doesn't even control all of Ukraine's Donbas.

4/ The key for the Europeans now is to prove him wrong by continuing mil.aid to #Ukraine & increasing pressure on Russia (using frozen assets, limiting sanctions' circumvention, etc.). This might later force a rethink in the Kremlin - Trump's red carpet and flatteries alone won't suffice.

3/ which are: limitations on #Ukraine's sovereignty and on #NATO presence in Eastern Europe. Kyiv and rest of #Europe won't agree to that. Putin thinks that if he can't get these goals diplomatically, he's got enough bandwidth to achieve them on the battlefield.

2/ The US & RU may have reached an understanding of an outline of a deal and put the responsibility on #Ukraine and #Europe. Zelenskyy to travel to DC on Monday. Putin's talk of 'root causes' of the war & the need to 'rebalance' European security means he's given no ground of his core demands

For Russia, the summit is ofc already a symbolic win. Whether it's also a practical win is TBC. Let's see - and watch out for the polar bears!

That's why #Russia will emphasise bilateral ties - offering energy & economic deals so the summit seems a success for both sides. The aim is to neutralise the US from being involved in #Ukraine ("why do you bother if Ukraine is so difficult to solve & there's so much we can do together anyway").

Sure, anything can happen. Trump's unpredictability is seen as weakness - but it also puts the Kremlin in a less certain position about what they can expect. Trump may impose sanctions if he's not happy with the mtg. A polar bear may come and crash the get-together. Who knows!?

Thank you @sylviekauffmann.bsky.social !