@jefke.bsky.social
Retail trying to not be fooled by randomness.
nodeepdives.substack.com
nodeepdives.substack.com
Q2 2025 Portfolio Review
Up 10.34% in Q2 25, 10.25% YTD
nodeepdives.substack.com
July 1, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Pabrai says he got banned from a Vegas casino for beating blackjack.
His system? Bet small when losing, big when winning.
Cool story.
It's also just that. A story
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/ackchyuall...
His system? Bet small when losing, big when winning.
Cool story.
It's also just that. A story
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/ackchyuall...
ACKCHYUALLY: Pabrai Didn’t Beat Blackjack. He Got Lucky
His "system" is just variance
nodeepdives.substack.com
May 27, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Pabrai says he got banned from a Vegas casino for beating blackjack.
His system? Bet small when losing, big when winning.
Cool story.
It's also just that. A story
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/ackchyuall...
His system? Bet small when losing, big when winning.
Cool story.
It's also just that. A story
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/ackchyuall...
Reposted
New post on tactilefund.substack.com. A link to our first quarter letter and a recent conversation. Thanks for reading!
Tactile Fund LP | Dave Waters | Substack
Tactile Fund LP makes long-term investments in companies with extraordinary physical assets. The Tactile Substack tracks the fund's progress and profiles its investment philosophy and holdings. Click ...
tactilefund.substack.com
May 6, 2025 at 6:02 PM
New post on tactilefund.substack.com. A link to our first quarter letter and a recent conversation. Thanks for reading!
Curious to hear AerCap’s comments on the whole tariff situation and don't want to wait a whole day until their Q1 25 earnings? #AER
I got you.
open.substack.com/pub/nodeepdi...
I got you.
open.substack.com/pub/nodeepdi...
The Trade War Nobody Wins. Except ...
Why tariffs, supply chain cracks, and dollar weakness set up aircraft lessors for another big win
open.substack.com
April 29, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Curious to hear AerCap’s comments on the whole tariff situation and don't want to wait a whole day until their Q1 25 earnings? #AER
I got you.
open.substack.com/pub/nodeepdi...
I got you.
open.substack.com/pub/nodeepdi...
No Deep Dives Q1 2025 letter
-0.13% vs -8.69% for S&P 500 (EUR)
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/q1-2025-po...
-0.13% vs -8.69% for S&P 500 (EUR)
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/q1-2025-po...
Q1 2025 Portfolio Review
Flat YTD vs -8.7% for S&P 500 in EUR
nodeepdives.substack.com
April 15, 2025 at 2:43 PM
No Deep Dives Q1 2025 letter
-0.13% vs -8.69% for S&P 500 (EUR)
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/q1-2025-po...
-0.13% vs -8.69% for S&P 500 (EUR)
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/q1-2025-po...
Reposted
"Americans delay home improvements" (FT)
"Jeld-Wen forecast revenues would drop 4-9%"
"AO Smith forecast flat to modest sales growth"
"Home Depot forecast 1% rise"
"Trump’s eagerness to deport undocumented workers poses a particular threat" to construction
$JELD $AOS $HD
"Jeld-Wen forecast revenues would drop 4-9%"
"AO Smith forecast flat to modest sales growth"
"Home Depot forecast 1% rise"
"Trump’s eagerness to deport undocumented workers poses a particular threat" to construction
$JELD $AOS $HD
Americans delay home improvements in latest blow to US housing market
High interest rates and uncertainty over immigration policy discourage homeowners from selling or renovating properties
www.ft.com
March 2, 2025 at 4:24 PM
"Americans delay home improvements" (FT)
"Jeld-Wen forecast revenues would drop 4-9%"
"AO Smith forecast flat to modest sales growth"
"Home Depot forecast 1% rise"
"Trump’s eagerness to deport undocumented workers poses a particular threat" to construction
$JELD $AOS $HD
"Jeld-Wen forecast revenues would drop 4-9%"
"AO Smith forecast flat to modest sales growth"
"Home Depot forecast 1% rise"
"Trump’s eagerness to deport undocumented workers poses a particular threat" to construction
$JELD $AOS $HD
Millicom out with FY24 Results $TIGO
'24 FCF: $725m (vs estimates of $675m)
'25 FCF guidance: $750m (vs $703m est)
At $28, that's about 15.3% LTM FCF yield, 15.8% fwd
Reconfirming a quartertly $0.75 dividend to be sustained or grown
(That's $3 per year or 10.7% dividend yield)
'24 FCF: $725m (vs estimates of $675m)
'25 FCF guidance: $750m (vs $703m est)
At $28, that's about 15.3% LTM FCF yield, 15.8% fwd
Reconfirming a quartertly $0.75 dividend to be sustained or grown
(That's $3 per year or 10.7% dividend yield)
February 27, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Millicom out with FY24 Results $TIGO
'24 FCF: $725m (vs estimates of $675m)
'25 FCF guidance: $750m (vs $703m est)
At $28, that's about 15.3% LTM FCF yield, 15.8% fwd
Reconfirming a quartertly $0.75 dividend to be sustained or grown
(That's $3 per year or 10.7% dividend yield)
'24 FCF: $725m (vs estimates of $675m)
'25 FCF guidance: $750m (vs $703m est)
At $28, that's about 15.3% LTM FCF yield, 15.8% fwd
Reconfirming a quartertly $0.75 dividend to be sustained or grown
(That's $3 per year or 10.7% dividend yield)
Belgian squeeze‐out rules can be funny:
• Majority owner of Exmar holds > 88%, leaving a free float of just ~11.5%
• He tenders at €11.50/share
• To squeeze out, he must reach 95% of shares AND > 90% of the free float needs to tender
= a minority of 1.2% can block the deal
• Majority owner of Exmar holds > 88%, leaving a free float of just ~11.5%
• He tenders at €11.50/share
• To squeeze out, he must reach 95% of shares AND > 90% of the free float needs to tender
= a minority of 1.2% can block the deal
Update 14/02/2025: de nieuwe Prospectus is aangekomen!
Update 14/02/2025: de nieuwe Prospectus is aangekomen! Woensdagavond was het eindelijk zo ver: de Prospectus voor het vernieuwde bod van Saverex op Exmar werd […]
www.hetbodopexmaristelaag.be
February 21, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Belgian squeeze‐out rules can be funny:
• Majority owner of Exmar holds > 88%, leaving a free float of just ~11.5%
• He tenders at €11.50/share
• To squeeze out, he must reach 95% of shares AND > 90% of the free float needs to tender
= a minority of 1.2% can block the deal
• Majority owner of Exmar holds > 88%, leaving a free float of just ~11.5%
• He tenders at €11.50/share
• To squeeze out, he must reach 95% of shares AND > 90% of the free float needs to tender
= a minority of 1.2% can block the deal
After Herbalife, Ackman is out with a new short!
- Economically sensitive business mode
- Limited ability to raise capital
- Always trades at a discount to NAV because NAV is not an appropriate benchmark
- Limited strategic options on a standalone basis
- Limited interest from potential acquirors
- Economically sensitive business mode
- Limited ability to raise capital
- Always trades at a discount to NAV because NAV is not an appropriate benchmark
- Limited strategic options on a standalone basis
- Limited interest from potential acquirors
February 19, 2025 at 10:15 AM
After Herbalife, Ackman is out with a new short!
- Economically sensitive business mode
- Limited ability to raise capital
- Always trades at a discount to NAV because NAV is not an appropriate benchmark
- Limited strategic options on a standalone basis
- Limited interest from potential acquirors
- Economically sensitive business mode
- Limited ability to raise capital
- Always trades at a discount to NAV because NAV is not an appropriate benchmark
- Limited strategic options on a standalone basis
- Limited interest from potential acquirors
Reposted
"The Tequila Boom Is Over. The Tequila Price War Has Begun" (WSJ)
"High-end brands incl. Diageo’s Casamigos and Bacardi’s Patrón have been lowering prices for more than a year"
Diageo "now positioning Casamigos at a lower price point than its Don Julio brand"
$DGE $DEO $BF.B
"High-end brands incl. Diageo’s Casamigos and Bacardi’s Patrón have been lowering prices for more than a year"
Diageo "now positioning Casamigos at a lower price point than its Don Julio brand"
$DGE $DEO $BF.B
February 9, 2025 at 8:22 AM
"The Tequila Boom Is Over. The Tequila Price War Has Begun" (WSJ)
"High-end brands incl. Diageo’s Casamigos and Bacardi’s Patrón have been lowering prices for more than a year"
Diageo "now positioning Casamigos at a lower price point than its Don Julio brand"
$DGE $DEO $BF.B
"High-end brands incl. Diageo’s Casamigos and Bacardi’s Patrón have been lowering prices for more than a year"
Diageo "now positioning Casamigos at a lower price point than its Don Julio brand"
$DGE $DEO $BF.B
Q4 2024 Portfolio Review
Up 4.14% in Q4, 22.8% for FY24
nodeepdives.substack.com
January 17, 2025 at 4:11 PM
#TIGO Millicom just announced their new capital allocation policy:
$3 regular yearly dividend paid in quarterly increments, to be sustained or grown
On a $25 share price, this is a yield of 12%!
How is this possible?
Because the stock is cheap AF and has a FCF yield of 16%+
$3 regular yearly dividend paid in quarterly increments, to be sustained or grown
On a $25 share price, this is a yield of 12%!
How is this possible?
Because the stock is cheap AF and has a FCF yield of 16%+
Millicom (Tigo) announces new shareholder remuneration policy
Millicom (Tigo) announces new shareholder remuneration policy Luxembourg, January 14th, 2025 – Millicom International Cellular S.A. (
www.globenewswire.com
January 15, 2025 at 9:22 AM
#TIGO Millicom just announced their new capital allocation policy:
$3 regular yearly dividend paid in quarterly increments, to be sustained or grown
On a $25 share price, this is a yield of 12%!
How is this possible?
Because the stock is cheap AF and has a FCF yield of 16%+
$3 regular yearly dividend paid in quarterly increments, to be sustained or grown
On a $25 share price, this is a yield of 12%!
How is this possible?
Because the stock is cheap AF and has a FCF yield of 16%+
Elon Musk is Lying About Being Good at Video Games
YouTube video by Quin69TV
www.youtube.com
January 14, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Just published an overview of the 19 positions in the No Deep Dives model portfolio
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/model-port...
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/model-port...
Model Portfolio Going into 2025
19 Shades of Value
nodeepdives.substack.com
January 8, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Just published an overview of the 19 positions in the No Deep Dives model portfolio
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/model-port...
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/model-port...
Chamath is pitching short $V $MA again, and stablecoins taking off.
Mentions a 300bp drag to the economy & high APRs ;)
@keubiko.bsky.social
Mentions a 300bp drag to the economy & high APRs ;)
@keubiko.bsky.social
January 4, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Chamath is pitching short $V $MA again, and stablecoins taking off.
Mentions a 300bp drag to the economy & high APRs ;)
@keubiko.bsky.social
Mentions a 300bp drag to the economy & high APRs ;)
@keubiko.bsky.social
Reposted
Not a good call (by me) so far, but BARN-SWX is the clearest trough on trough (multiple + margins) set-up I'm aware of
December 16, 2024 at 3:36 PM
Not a good call (by me) so far, but BARN-SWX is the clearest trough on trough (multiple + margins) set-up I'm aware of
Millicom (#TIGO) just announced:
- $150m buyback in 6 months (3.5%, or >7% annualized)
- special dividend of $1 in January (4% yield at $25), with the
intention of restarting a recurring dividend, to be approved at next AGM
- $150m buyback in 6 months (3.5%, or >7% annualized)
- special dividend of $1 in January (4% yield at $25), with the
intention of restarting a recurring dividend, to be approved at next AGM
Millicom (Tigo) intends to consolidate listing of shares on NASDAQ U.S. by delisting SDRs from Nasdaq Stockholm and resumes shareholder remuneration
Millicom (Tigo) intends to consolidate listing of shares on NASDAQ U.S. by delisting SDRs from Nasdaq Stockholm and resumes shareholder remuneration ...
www.globenewswire.com
November 29, 2024 at 4:30 PM
Millicom (#TIGO) just announced:
- $150m buyback in 6 months (3.5%, or >7% annualized)
- special dividend of $1 in January (4% yield at $25), with the
intention of restarting a recurring dividend, to be approved at next AGM
- $150m buyback in 6 months (3.5%, or >7% annualized)
- special dividend of $1 in January (4% yield at $25), with the
intention of restarting a recurring dividend, to be approved at next AGM
M&A Chatter in the UK:
Volex #VLX will make an offer on it's smaller peer TT Electronics #TTG
I wrote about it, but haven't pulled the trigger myself yet.
Curious to hear other opinions on the situation
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/tt-electro...
Volex #VLX will make an offer on it's smaller peer TT Electronics #TTG
I wrote about it, but haven't pulled the trigger myself yet.
Curious to hear other opinions on the situation
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/tt-electro...
TT Electronics: Turnaround with Takeover Chatter
Cheap valuation, merger arbitrage upside, and the chance of a higher bid make this a compelling watch
nodeepdives.substack.com
November 21, 2024 at 4:35 PM
M&A Chatter in the UK:
Volex #VLX will make an offer on it's smaller peer TT Electronics #TTG
I wrote about it, but haven't pulled the trigger myself yet.
Curious to hear other opinions on the situation
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/tt-electro...
Volex #VLX will make an offer on it's smaller peer TT Electronics #TTG
I wrote about it, but haven't pulled the trigger myself yet.
Curious to hear other opinions on the situation
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/tt-electro...
Some thoughts on #TIGO after the sale-leaseback with #SBAC
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/digesting-...
(Are cashtags a thing here? $TIGO $SBAC)
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/digesting-...
(Are cashtags a thing here? $TIGO $SBAC)
Digesting Millicom’s Tower Monetization
Sale-leaseback announcement with SBAC leaves TIGO stock unmoved. Clarity on 2025 capital allocation is what investors need now.
nodeepdives.substack.com
November 13, 2024 at 10:19 AM
Some thoughts on #TIGO after the sale-leaseback with #SBAC
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/digesting-...
(Are cashtags a thing here? $TIGO $SBAC)
nodeepdives.substack.com/p/digesting-...
(Are cashtags a thing here? $TIGO $SBAC)