Jeff Horwich
@jeffhorwich.bsky.social
Senior Econ Writer at Minneapolis Fed. If I venture opinions, they are solely personal.
New BLS #JOLTS today, including Sept. and Oct. -- still "low-hire/low-fire" out there. bls.gov/jlt/
December 9, 2025 at 3:36 PM
New BLS #JOLTS today, including Sept. and Oct. -- still "low-hire/low-fire" out there. bls.gov/jlt/
Finally, @atlantafed.org wage-growth tracker has been running ahead of annual change in CPI and PCE since early 2023. People still hate inflation (that is to say, I think, they hate the price level we are stuck with) but wages on the whole are gaining ground again. (5/5)
October 16, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Finally, @atlantafed.org wage-growth tracker has been running ahead of annual change in CPI and PCE since early 2023. People still hate inflation (that is to say, I think, they hate the price level we are stuck with) but wages on the whole are gaining ground again. (5/5)
Price inflation is usefully seen in light of wage inflation. In broad strokes, by one view, ECI "total compensation" still trails the CPI since Covid but has caught up to PCE... (4/5)
October 16, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Price inflation is usefully seen in light of wage inflation. In broad strokes, by one view, ECI "total compensation" still trails the CPI since Covid but has caught up to PCE... (4/5)
Also like to check @newyorkfed.bsky.social Economic Heterogeneity Indicators, which continue to show differences, but narrower ones as overall inflation has fallen... www.newyorkfed.org/research/eco... (3/5)
October 16, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Also like to check @newyorkfed.bsky.social Economic Heterogeneity Indicators, which continue to show differences, but narrower ones as overall inflation has fallen... www.newyorkfed.org/research/eco... (3/5)
...and here's the cumulative price increase for these income-based baskets over the life of that series (which BLS extended retroactive to Dec. 2005). That's a 9 percentage point difference in inflation experienced by lowest and highest quintile households...(2/5)
October 16, 2025 at 8:32 PM
...and here's the cumulative price increase for these income-based baskets over the life of that series (which BLS extended retroactive to Dec. 2005). That's a 9 percentage point difference in inflation experienced by lowest and highest quintile households...(2/5)
Do low-income folks get higher inflation? This week for an interview, I refreshed my data on "inflation by income" from the BLS research series, which is now current through end of 2024. Here's the *cumulative* price rise (by income) since Covid... (1/5)
October 16, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Do low-income folks get higher inflation? This week for an interview, I refreshed my data on "inflation by income" from the BLS research series, which is now current through end of 2024. Here's the *cumulative* price rise (by income) since Covid... (1/5)
It's glum out there, per new @philadelphiafed.bsky.social survey: "Respondents’ net sentiment continued to decrease and is at its lowest point since the beginning of the LIFE Survey. For the first time, sentiment is negative across all demographic groups." www.philadelphiafed.org/consumer-fin...
September 30, 2025 at 3:18 PM
It's glum out there, per new @philadelphiafed.bsky.social survey: "Respondents’ net sentiment continued to decrease and is at its lowest point since the beginning of the LIFE Survey. For the first time, sentiment is negative across all demographic groups." www.philadelphiafed.org/consumer-fin...
Emoji-filled look under the hood at today's #PCE #inflation at tariff-sensitive lines: Mild goods inflation continues, though appliances & computer prices retreat. Furniture 🪑& bikes 🚴 are popping, garments 👗now rising too. Coffee surge ☕️no surprise, but look at produce.🥑🍅
September 26, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Emoji-filled look under the hood at today's #PCE #inflation at tariff-sensitive lines: Mild goods inflation continues, though appliances & computer prices retreat. Furniture 🪑& bikes 🚴 are popping, garments 👗now rising too. Coffee surge ☕️no surprise, but look at produce.🥑🍅
The spindly "spider" from @atlantafed.org is a terrific visualization. Updated today with new JOLTS: On every measure except for initial jobless claims and job-finding (where we are close), we are now in a less healthy posture than one year ago. Hiring rate is approaching a long-term low.
September 3, 2025 at 4:51 PM
The spindly "spider" from @atlantafed.org is a terrific visualization. Updated today with new JOLTS: On every measure except for initial jobless claims and job-finding (where we are close), we are now in a less healthy posture than one year ago. Hiring rate is approaching a long-term low.