Jeff Horwich
@jeffhorwich.bsky.social
Senior Econ Writer at Minneapolis Fed. If I venture opinions, they are solely personal.
New BLS #JOLTS today, including Sept. and Oct. -- still "low-hire/low-fire" out there. bls.gov/jlt/
December 9, 2025 at 3:36 PM
New BLS #JOLTS today, including Sept. and Oct. -- still "low-hire/low-fire" out there. bls.gov/jlt/
New video. Great suggestion by a colleague to take on this topic!
When it comes to Federal Reserve policy, it's not all about interest rates: What's the Fed's "balance sheet" and why should you care? Take two minutes and get a little more Fed Fluent with @jeffhorwich.bsky.social.
November 7, 2025 at 3:00 PM
New video. Great suggestion by a colleague to take on this topic!
Today's @axios.com Macro newsletter gives two theories for divergent GDP & jobs: Either "something's gotta give" and GDP will weaken, or jobs weakness is overdone. Not discussed tho: Concentrated benefits from AI & robust consumer spending heavily tilted to the top end. www.axios.com/newsletters/...
Axios Macro
www.axios.com
October 21, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Today's @axios.com Macro newsletter gives two theories for divergent GDP & jobs: Either "something's gotta give" and GDP will weaken, or jobs weakness is overdone. Not discussed tho: Concentrated benefits from AI & robust consumer spending heavily tilted to the top end. www.axios.com/newsletters/...
New term for me, esp. interesting in light of recent econ Nobel: "Involution" sounds like "creative destruction" on steroids. www.wsj.com/world/china/... "China’s economy is trapped in a cycle of competition so fierce that it is destroying profits and fueling a deflationary spiral"
A New Challenge for China’s Economy: ‘Involution’
Beijing is fighting to limit the damage from a pattern of price wars and excess capacity across multiple industries.
www.wsj.com
October 20, 2025 at 8:45 PM
New term for me, esp. interesting in light of recent econ Nobel: "Involution" sounds like "creative destruction" on steroids. www.wsj.com/world/china/... "China’s economy is trapped in a cycle of competition so fierce that it is destroying profits and fueling a deflationary spiral"
Do low-income folks get higher inflation? This week for an interview, I refreshed my data on "inflation by income" from the BLS research series, which is now current through end of 2024. Here's the *cumulative* price rise (by income) since Covid... (1/5)
October 16, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Do low-income folks get higher inflation? This week for an interview, I refreshed my data on "inflation by income" from the BLS research series, which is now current through end of 2024. Here's the *cumulative* price rise (by income) since Covid... (1/5)
Reposted by Jeff Horwich
@richmondfed.bsky.social John Bailey Jones’ latest research focuses on the surge in older Americans aging-in-place—a decision both sentimental and financial, with implications for housing markets and labor mobility. Read more in @jeffhorwich.bsky.social For All spotlight. https://bit.ly/4hn36dS
Scholar spotlight: John Bailey Jones | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Bringing economic rigor to life’s “fuzzy stuff”
bit.ly
October 16, 2025 at 2:19 PM
@richmondfed.bsky.social John Bailey Jones’ latest research focuses on the surge in older Americans aging-in-place—a decision both sentimental and financial, with implications for housing markets and labor mobility. Read more in @jeffhorwich.bsky.social For All spotlight. https://bit.ly/4hn36dS
Reposted by Jeff Horwich
What are the major trends determining the course of overall #inflation? @jeffhorwich.bsky.social looks at durable goods, market-based services, and housing and utilities next to their recent historical performance. The results show why this is a challenging moment for policymakers. #EconSky
October 14, 2025 at 6:15 PM
What are the major trends determining the course of overall #inflation? @jeffhorwich.bsky.social looks at durable goods, market-based services, and housing and utilities next to their recent historical performance. The results show why this is a challenging moment for policymakers. #EconSky
Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Private data like Harvard Business School Pricing Lab is now as important as ever. @jeffhorwich.bsky.social talked with Harvard's Alberto Cavallo about their findings on tariffs and how to interpret them. https://bit.ly/42zz4NM
Daily pricing data reveal the slow-rolling impact of tariffs | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Prices are rising for U.S. consumers even as cautious retailers eat much of the tariffs for now
bit.ly
October 10, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Private data like Harvard Business School Pricing Lab is now as important as ever. @jeffhorwich.bsky.social talked with Harvard's Alberto Cavallo about their findings on tariffs and how to interpret them. https://bit.ly/42zz4NM
As we edge closer to A Month-Without-a-CPI (or PCE, potentially) these data could play an important role in helping policymakers understand the lay of the land.
Where and how much are tariffs showing up in consumer prices? Daily retail price data analyzed by Harvard Business School Pricing Lab give a more detailed view than government statistics. @jeffhorwich.bsky.social breaks down the data with economist and Pricing Lab co-founder Alberto Cavallo.
October 6, 2025 at 5:01 PM
As we edge closer to A Month-Without-a-CPI (or PCE, potentially) these data could play an important role in helping policymakers understand the lay of the land.
I live in St. Paul. I know where the barges hang out.
Interpreting the latest twists and turns on tariffs begins with solid economic theory on trade. Senior Econ Writer @jeffhorwich.bsky.social introduces some of the innovative Minneapolis Fed economists who are watching the big picture. https://bit.ly/42DSFvz
September 30, 2025 at 8:14 PM
I live in St. Paul. I know where the barges hang out.
It's glum out there, per new @philadelphiafed.bsky.social survey: "Respondents’ net sentiment continued to decrease and is at its lowest point since the beginning of the LIFE Survey. For the first time, sentiment is negative across all demographic groups." www.philadelphiafed.org/consumer-fin...
September 30, 2025 at 3:18 PM
It's glum out there, per new @philadelphiafed.bsky.social survey: "Respondents’ net sentiment continued to decrease and is at its lowest point since the beginning of the LIFE Survey. For the first time, sentiment is negative across all demographic groups." www.philadelphiafed.org/consumer-fin...
Emoji-filled look under the hood at today's #PCE #inflation at tariff-sensitive lines: Mild goods inflation continues, though appliances & computer prices retreat. Furniture 🪑& bikes 🚴 are popping, garments 👗now rising too. Coffee surge ☕️no surprise, but look at produce.🥑🍅
September 26, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Emoji-filled look under the hood at today's #PCE #inflation at tariff-sensitive lines: Mild goods inflation continues, though appliances & computer prices retreat. Furniture 🪑& bikes 🚴 are popping, garments 👗now rising too. Coffee surge ☕️no surprise, but look at produce.🥑🍅
On the hot topic of whether there is *any* evidence of tariffs in inflation data, enter unique data from @harvard.edu @harvardhbs.bsky.social Pricing Lab. It leaves little question on that basic matter and sketches path of prices ahead for retail goods. (Spoiler: We are likely just getting started.)
How much are tariffs passing through to consumers?
In a new "Basket" Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School Pricing Lab tells @jeffhorwich.bsky.social the #tariff effect is now apparent in import and domestic goods--although U.S. retailers appear to be eating much of the tariffs for the moment.
In a new "Basket" Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School Pricing Lab tells @jeffhorwich.bsky.social the #tariff effect is now apparent in import and domestic goods--although U.S. retailers appear to be eating much of the tariffs for the moment.
September 25, 2025 at 2:48 PM
On the hot topic of whether there is *any* evidence of tariffs in inflation data, enter unique data from @harvard.edu @harvardhbs.bsky.social Pricing Lab. It leaves little question on that basic matter and sketches path of prices ahead for retail goods. (Spoiler: We are likely just getting started.)
Reposted by Jeff Horwich
The Fed's tools to conduct monetary policy were changed dramatically by the Great Recession--a shift described as moving from a "corridor" to a "floor" system. Walk the halls for two minutes with @jeffhorwich.bsky.social to get a little more #FedFluent about the Fed's operating framework. #EconSky
September 24, 2025 at 2:27 PM
The Fed's tools to conduct monetary policy were changed dramatically by the Great Recession--a shift described as moving from a "corridor" to a "floor" system. Walk the halls for two minutes with @jeffhorwich.bsky.social to get a little more #FedFluent about the Fed's operating framework. #EconSky
Reposted by Jeff Horwich
How much are tariffs passing through to consumers?
In a new "Basket" Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School Pricing Lab tells @jeffhorwich.bsky.social the #tariff effect is now apparent in import and domestic goods--although U.S. retailers appear to be eating much of the tariffs for the moment.
In a new "Basket" Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School Pricing Lab tells @jeffhorwich.bsky.social the #tariff effect is now apparent in import and domestic goods--although U.S. retailers appear to be eating much of the tariffs for the moment.
September 23, 2025 at 2:52 PM
How much are tariffs passing through to consumers?
In a new "Basket" Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School Pricing Lab tells @jeffhorwich.bsky.social the #tariff effect is now apparent in import and domestic goods--although U.S. retailers appear to be eating much of the tariffs for the moment.
In a new "Basket" Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School Pricing Lab tells @jeffhorwich.bsky.social the #tariff effect is now apparent in import and domestic goods--although U.S. retailers appear to be eating much of the tariffs for the moment.
Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Many Americans worry about saving enough for retirement. Could simple changes to #retirement savings infrastructure affect the number of Americans who are prepared to live well in retirement? Read more in For All magazine from @oiginstitute.bsky.social: bit.ly/3Ep09u5
September 17, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Many Americans worry about saving enough for retirement. Could simple changes to #retirement savings infrastructure affect the number of Americans who are prepared to live well in retirement? Read more in For All magazine from @oiginstitute.bsky.social: bit.ly/3Ep09u5
Reposted by Jeff Horwich
What does research tell us about the complex landscape of incentives, penalties, and nudges that shape how Americans save? @oiginstitute.bsky.social Senior Writer @lisacamnermckay.bsky.social picks up the magic 8 ball and digs into the economics: bit.ly/3Ep09u5
September 10, 2025 at 1:51 PM
What does research tell us about the complex landscape of incentives, penalties, and nudges that shape how Americans save? @oiginstitute.bsky.social Senior Writer @lisacamnermckay.bsky.social picks up the magic 8 ball and digs into the economics: bit.ly/3Ep09u5
Sobering piece on staggering societal resources devoted to helping the 1% live to 150. Wouldn't be it something to see these billions instead directed toward, say, fatal childhood diseases or childhood malnutrition? www.wsj.com/health/welln...
The Billionaires Fueling the Quest for Longer Life
A network of ultrawealthy investors including Peter Thiel and Sam Altman are infusing the longevity industry with cash and making big bets on where the science is headed.
www.wsj.com
September 8, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Sobering piece on staggering societal resources devoted to helping the 1% live to 150. Wouldn't be it something to see these billions instead directed toward, say, fatal childhood diseases or childhood malnutrition? www.wsj.com/health/welln...
Curious now to what extent this trend might offset drop in labor force from changes in immigration. Time to play with some data...
Big jump in labor force participation among prime-age men. We had a similar such jump in July 2024, which turned out to be noise and didn't stick. Hopefully, today's reading will prove to be stickier and mark the turning point in prime-age men giving up on jobs...
September 5, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Curious now to what extent this trend might offset drop in labor force from changes in immigration. Time to play with some data...
It's my particular pleasure to write and produce these video wrap-ups of our "Beige Book" reports in collaboration with our skilled team of regional economists. Another way @minneapolisfed.bsky.social is setting the standard for public engagement on social media. Have a look/listen!
Our Regional Outreach team is back with insight of and feedback from Ninth District businesses and workers. Get your 2-minute recap of our region's economy with our latest Beige Book video. #EconSky
September 5, 2025 at 5:57 PM
It's my particular pleasure to write and produce these video wrap-ups of our "Beige Book" reports in collaboration with our skilled team of regional economists. Another way @minneapolisfed.bsky.social is setting the standard for public engagement on social media. Have a look/listen!
The spindly "spider" from @atlantafed.org is a terrific visualization. Updated today with new JOLTS: On every measure except for initial jobless claims and job-finding (where we are close), we are now in a less healthy posture than one year ago. Hiring rate is approaching a long-term low.
September 3, 2025 at 4:51 PM
The spindly "spider" from @atlantafed.org is a terrific visualization. Updated today with new JOLTS: On every measure except for initial jobless claims and job-finding (where we are close), we are now in a less healthy posture than one year ago. Hiring rate is approaching a long-term low.
Hello, Bluesky.
Every year the #MinnesotaStateFair adds about a half-a-percent to state employment. Why do these jobs matter in a healthy economy, and should we worry that seasonal work is in long-term decline? @jeffhorwich.bsky.social talks "seasonal employment" in our latest FedFluent video. #EconSky
September 3, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Hello, Bluesky.