Jeff Fischer
@jefffischer.bsky.social
Stocks / Options / Sustainability / Former Hedge Fund Manager, Motley Fool Options Co-Founder / sharing stocks and options
Following Ferrari's largest one-day decline since coming public in 2014, RACE still trades at 50 times forward free cash flow estimates. An index-beating buy? You tell me. I was hoping to find it below 30 times.
October 19, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Following Ferrari's largest one-day decline since coming public in 2014, RACE still trades at 50 times forward free cash flow estimates. An index-beating buy? You tell me. I was hoping to find it below 30 times.
With its strong Hoka and Ugg brands, DECK remains a growing shoe company with strong free cash flow, steady share buybacks, and a forward P/FCF of 15. I'm looking to own some for the long haul soon -- planning to buy some shares, write some puts. Tariff concerns hit it early.
September 2, 2025 at 4:02 PM
With its strong Hoka and Ugg brands, DECK remains a growing shoe company with strong free cash flow, steady share buybacks, and a forward P/FCF of 15. I'm looking to own some for the long haul soon -- planning to buy some shares, write some puts. Tariff concerns hit it early.
Here's a look at Affirm (AFRM) turning GAAP profitable last quarter, while annual free cash flow and margins grow. Obviously, consumer spending drives this business, but it'll be interesting to see if more people rely on it for delayed payments during recessions. That vs. less spending.
September 1, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Here's a look at Affirm (AFRM) turning GAAP profitable last quarter, while annual free cash flow and margins grow. Obviously, consumer spending drives this business, but it'll be interesting to see if more people rely on it for delayed payments during recessions. That vs. less spending.
Here's an updated look at price/free cash flow multiples, and one-year estimates, on several companies mentioned here.
August 28, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Here's an updated look at price/free cash flow multiples, and one-year estimates, on several companies mentioned here.
With the stock slipping to $870, $NOW is trading at 39 times expected free cash flow (the green line). FCF has grown at a nearly 30% CAGR. The company is monetizing AI well, and seems likely to keep growing well despite its size. I'm glad to own it for the long term.
August 18, 2025 at 3:45 PM
With the stock slipping to $870, $NOW is trading at 39 times expected free cash flow (the green line). FCF has grown at a nearly 30% CAGR. The company is monetizing AI well, and seems likely to keep growing well despite its size. I'm glad to own it for the long term.
Affirm (AFRM) is nearing positive net income a few years after reaching positive free cash flow, with a 59% revenue CAGR since 2019.
July 28, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Affirm (AFRM) is nearing positive net income a few years after reaching positive free cash flow, with a 59% revenue CAGR since 2019.
Visa (V) since its 2008 IPO: Steady revenue growth (2020 is the only down year), leaping FCF, and FCF multiples mostly in the 20s. As explained in its filings when it went public, cash flow was muted in part due to an ownership structure that it was shedding in going public.
June 27, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Visa (V) since its 2008 IPO: Steady revenue growth (2020 is the only down year), leaping FCF, and FCF multiples mostly in the 20s. As explained in its filings when it went public, cash flow was muted in part due to an ownership structure that it was shedding in going public.
Nike (NKE) has sported choppy free cash flow, and in the last 15 years, FCF has only grown 4.5% annualized (in-line with revenue growth). At $72, the stock is at 35 times forward FCF, aligned with the mid-30s multiple where it has often traded. But can it reignite better growth ahead?
June 27, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Nike (NKE) has sported choppy free cash flow, and in the last 15 years, FCF has only grown 4.5% annualized (in-line with revenue growth). At $72, the stock is at 35 times forward FCF, aligned with the mid-30s multiple where it has often traded. But can it reignite better growth ahead?
So often, free cash flow directs the share price, and value multiples and price appreciation reflect the FCF growth rate. AVGO is priced at 34 times FCF, with a FCF CAGR of 33%, driving a share price CAGR of 35%.
June 26, 2025 at 6:30 PM
So often, free cash flow directs the share price, and value multiples and price appreciation reflect the FCF growth rate. AVGO is priced at 34 times FCF, with a FCF CAGR of 33%, driving a share price CAGR of 35%.
PINS, with key metrics trending in the right direction, fetches a reasonable 20 times NTM free cash flow and 18 times estimated earnings.
June 24, 2025 at 4:16 PM
PINS, with key metrics trending in the right direction, fetches a reasonable 20 times NTM free cash flow and 18 times estimated earnings.
A lot is trending well at UBER while it trades at 16.7 times NTM free cash flow estimates, or a forward FCF yield of 6%.
June 24, 2025 at 4:14 PM
A lot is trending well at UBER while it trades at 16.7 times NTM free cash flow estimates, or a forward FCF yield of 6%.
CRDO is a rare case where GAAP net income and FCF arrive right as revenue hits an inflection point and jumps. With three hyperscalers as core customers, including MSFT and AMZN, and two more expected to sign on in FY26 (which just started), Credo looks promising.
June 10, 2025 at 12:00 PM
CRDO is a rare case where GAAP net income and FCF arrive right as revenue hits an inflection point and jumps. With three hyperscalers as core customers, including MSFT and AMZN, and two more expected to sign on in FY26 (which just started), Credo looks promising.
There's no guarantee GMS will grow again, though.
June 2, 2025 at 8:11 PM
There's no guarantee GMS will grow again, though.
PAYC has been in price recovery mode, with the stock up 26% YTD, and 78% the past year. Now at 37x trailing and forward FCF, it no longer looks cheap unless growth accelerates. (I own shares.)
June 1, 2025 at 1:53 PM
PAYC has been in price recovery mode, with the stock up 26% YTD, and 78% the past year. Now at 37x trailing and forward FCF, it no longer looks cheap unless growth accelerates. (I own shares.)
Valued on free cash flow, some of the less expensive companies I follow and hold:
May 15, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Valued on free cash flow, some of the less expensive companies I follow and hold:
Up 2,145% since its 2008 debut, a fairly modest $47,000 invested in Visa $V at IPO has grown to $1M, with relatively few hiccups along the way. Free cash flow was an early tell (as a snarky 2008 comment below reminded).
May 15, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Up 2,145% since its 2008 debut, a fairly modest $47,000 invested in Visa $V at IPO has grown to $1M, with relatively few hiccups along the way. Free cash flow was an early tell (as a snarky 2008 comment below reminded).
Here's a great way to look at returns and drawdowns from 1970 to 2024 based on how much you invested in stocks vs. bonds. This is worth thinking about for those who want less volatility. Historically, you could still get healthy total returns with less drama.
April 11, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Here's a great way to look at returns and drawdowns from 1970 to 2024 based on how much you invested in stocks vs. bonds. This is worth thinking about for those who want less volatility. Historically, you could still get healthy total returns with less drama.
Focused on P/Free Cash Flow, here are some companies that are starting to look a bit inexpensive, and tariffs should be a small concern for most of these (other than AVGO). That said, travel is likely to stall, affecting ABNB and BKNG, and perhaps AXP a bit. And falling oil prices could hurt ARIS.
April 7, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Focused on P/Free Cash Flow, here are some companies that are starting to look a bit inexpensive, and tariffs should be a small concern for most of these (other than AVGO). That said, travel is likely to stall, affecting ABNB and BKNG, and perhaps AXP a bit. And falling oil prices could hurt ARIS.
A Pro Portfolio position since 2010, Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) has returned 18.2% annualized (excluding a 1.48% dividend) with modest volatility. Dominating the proxy filing business, nearly two-thirds of revenue is recurring; acquisitions and new services add to growth.
March 26, 2025 at 7:59 PM
A Pro Portfolio position since 2010, Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) has returned 18.2% annualized (excluding a 1.48% dividend) with modest volatility. Dominating the proxy filing business, nearly two-thirds of revenue is recurring; acquisitions and new services add to growth.
VEEV is up 13% YTD in a down market. High margins, high free cash flow, steady growth, and an amusing diversification "bonus": rather than software, it typically gets classified as "health care." At 33 times expected FCF, it's still clawing back from 2020 highs; FCF has doubled since.
March 19, 2025 at 3:29 PM
VEEV is up 13% YTD in a down market. High margins, high free cash flow, steady growth, and an amusing diversification "bonus": rather than software, it typically gets classified as "health care." At 33 times expected FCF, it's still clawing back from 2020 highs; FCF has doubled since.
Buffett started buying BYD (Ticker: BYDDY) in 2008, and began reducing the stake in 2022 after it jumped. He lately owns nearly 2% of the company as car sales and free cash flow continue to grow. Yesterday, the stock hit new highs as BYD debuted technology that takes 5 minutes to charge a car.
March 18, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Buffett started buying BYD (Ticker: BYDDY) in 2008, and began reducing the stake in 2022 after it jumped. He lately owns nearly 2% of the company as car sales and free cash flow continue to grow. Yesterday, the stock hit new highs as BYD debuted technology that takes 5 minutes to charge a car.