Jeff Fischer
@jefffischer.bsky.social
Stocks / Options / Sustainability / Former Hedge Fund Manager, Motley Fool Options Co-Founder / sharing stocks and options
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Jeff Fischer
@jefffischer.bsky.social
· Nov 21
Thoughts I've shared with new investors:
1. View the stock market as a savings account that you keep adding to. Regularly invest money that you don't foresee needing for at least 3 years, and ideally you'll keep it invested for much longer.
1. View the stock market as a savings account that you keep adding to. Regularly invest money that you don't foresee needing for at least 3 years, and ideally you'll keep it invested for much longer.
Visa (V) just increased its dividend by 13.5%, to $2.68 per share. Since its 2008 IPO, Visa's dividend has increased every year, at a CAGR of ~17.5%. If you bought shares during 2008, the dividend now pays about a 15% annual return on your starting capital, while the stock is up 2,000%+.
October 29, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Visa (V) just increased its dividend by 13.5%, to $2.68 per share. Since its 2008 IPO, Visa's dividend has increased every year, at a CAGR of ~17.5%. If you bought shares during 2008, the dividend now pays about a 15% annual return on your starting capital, while the stock is up 2,000%+.
NVDA since Jan. 1, 2020: +3,317%.
CLS, even better: +3,838%.
While ADBE is up 9%.
CLS, even better: +3,838%.
While ADBE is up 9%.
October 29, 2025 at 12:33 PM
NVDA since Jan. 1, 2020: +3,317%.
CLS, even better: +3,838%.
While ADBE is up 9%.
CLS, even better: +3,838%.
While ADBE is up 9%.
Following Ferrari's largest one-day decline since coming public in 2014, RACE still trades at 50 times forward free cash flow estimates. An index-beating buy? You tell me. I was hoping to find it below 30 times.
October 19, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Following Ferrari's largest one-day decline since coming public in 2014, RACE still trades at 50 times forward free cash flow estimates. An index-beating buy? You tell me. I was hoping to find it below 30 times.
Credo’s Q1 of 2026 points to strong growth this year as the need for data center connections grows quickly and its tech takes center stage. Strong results, and pricey stock now, having doubled this summer. Still holding, though.
CRDO is a rare case where GAAP net income and FCF arrive right as revenue hits an inflection point and jumps. With three hyperscalers as core customers, including MSFT and AMZN, and two more expected to sign on in FY26 (which just started), Credo looks promising.
September 4, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Credo’s Q1 of 2026 points to strong growth this year as the need for data center connections grows quickly and its tech takes center stage. Strong results, and pricey stock now, having doubled this summer. Still holding, though.
With its strong Hoka and Ugg brands, DECK remains a growing shoe company with strong free cash flow, steady share buybacks, and a forward P/FCF of 15. I'm looking to own some for the long haul soon -- planning to buy some shares, write some puts. Tariff concerns hit it early.
September 2, 2025 at 4:02 PM
With its strong Hoka and Ugg brands, DECK remains a growing shoe company with strong free cash flow, steady share buybacks, and a forward P/FCF of 15. I'm looking to own some for the long haul soon -- planning to buy some shares, write some puts. Tariff concerns hit it early.
I look forward to David Gardner's new book, "Rule Breaker Investing." To learn how to spot the most promising, fast-growing companies early (as it did with Amazon, Nvidia, Netflix, etc), along with a strategy that helps you buy and *keep* the stocks, the book publishes on Sept. 16. Check it out!
September 2, 2025 at 4:00 PM
I look forward to David Gardner's new book, "Rule Breaker Investing." To learn how to spot the most promising, fast-growing companies early (as it did with Amazon, Nvidia, Netflix, etc), along with a strategy that helps you buy and *keep* the stocks, the book publishes on Sept. 16. Check it out!
Here's a look at Affirm (AFRM) turning GAAP profitable last quarter, while annual free cash flow and margins grow. Obviously, consumer spending drives this business, but it'll be interesting to see if more people rely on it for delayed payments during recessions. That vs. less spending.
September 1, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Here's a look at Affirm (AFRM) turning GAAP profitable last quarter, while annual free cash flow and margins grow. Obviously, consumer spending drives this business, but it'll be interesting to see if more people rely on it for delayed payments during recessions. That vs. less spending.
I tend to own stocks for years, decades even, and use options along side on some of the stocks for just as long, even some for more than a decade now.
August 29, 2025 at 5:44 PM
I tend to own stocks for years, decades even, and use options along side on some of the stocks for just as long, even some for more than a decade now.
Here's an updated look at price/free cash flow multiples, and one-year estimates, on several companies mentioned here.
August 28, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Here's an updated look at price/free cash flow multiples, and one-year estimates, on several companies mentioned here.
With the stock slipping to $870, $NOW is trading at 39 times expected free cash flow (the green line). FCF has grown at a nearly 30% CAGR. The company is monetizing AI well, and seems likely to keep growing well despite its size. I'm glad to own it for the long term.
August 18, 2025 at 3:45 PM
With the stock slipping to $870, $NOW is trading at 39 times expected free cash flow (the green line). FCF has grown at a nearly 30% CAGR. The company is monetizing AI well, and seems likely to keep growing well despite its size. I'm glad to own it for the long term.
Affirm (AFRM) is nearing positive net income a few years after reaching positive free cash flow, with a 59% revenue CAGR since 2019.
July 28, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Affirm (AFRM) is nearing positive net income a few years after reaching positive free cash flow, with a 59% revenue CAGR since 2019.
As the S&P 500 reaches a new high today, here are some of the big winners over the years that I didn't buy or didn't keep that are likely to keep on winning (that I should still consider): BRK, MSFT, TDG, ORLY, ODFL, TT, IBP, NDAQ, CSL, CBOE, FTNT, CSL, BKNG, APH, ZS, RACE...
June 27, 2025 at 7:58 PM
As the S&P 500 reaches a new high today, here are some of the big winners over the years that I didn't buy or didn't keep that are likely to keep on winning (that I should still consider): BRK, MSFT, TDG, ORLY, ODFL, TT, IBP, NDAQ, CSL, CBOE, FTNT, CSL, BKNG, APH, ZS, RACE...
Visa (V) since its 2008 IPO: Steady revenue growth (2020 is the only down year), leaping FCF, and FCF multiples mostly in the 20s. As explained in its filings when it went public, cash flow was muted in part due to an ownership structure that it was shedding in going public.
June 27, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Visa (V) since its 2008 IPO: Steady revenue growth (2020 is the only down year), leaping FCF, and FCF multiples mostly in the 20s. As explained in its filings when it went public, cash flow was muted in part due to an ownership structure that it was shedding in going public.
Nike (NKE) has sported choppy free cash flow, and in the last 15 years, FCF has only grown 4.5% annualized (in-line with revenue growth). At $72, the stock is at 35 times forward FCF, aligned with the mid-30s multiple where it has often traded. But can it reignite better growth ahead?
June 27, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Nike (NKE) has sported choppy free cash flow, and in the last 15 years, FCF has only grown 4.5% annualized (in-line with revenue growth). At $72, the stock is at 35 times forward FCF, aligned with the mid-30s multiple where it has often traded. But can it reignite better growth ahead?
Fear for the future of UBER today reminds me of fear for the future of ORLY many years ago (which I fell prey to).
“ORLY will be crushed by Amazon and electric cars.”
“UBER will be crushed by Tesla and autonomous cars.”
“ORLY will be crushed by Amazon and electric cars.”
“UBER will be crushed by Tesla and autonomous cars.”
June 26, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Fear for the future of UBER today reminds me of fear for the future of ORLY many years ago (which I fell prey to).
“ORLY will be crushed by Amazon and electric cars.”
“UBER will be crushed by Tesla and autonomous cars.”
“ORLY will be crushed by Amazon and electric cars.”
“UBER will be crushed by Tesla and autonomous cars.”
So often, free cash flow directs the share price, and value multiples and price appreciation reflect the FCF growth rate. AVGO is priced at 34 times FCF, with a FCF CAGR of 33%, driving a share price CAGR of 35%.
June 26, 2025 at 6:30 PM
So often, free cash flow directs the share price, and value multiples and price appreciation reflect the FCF growth rate. AVGO is priced at 34 times FCF, with a FCF CAGR of 33%, driving a share price CAGR of 35%.
PINS, with key metrics trending in the right direction, fetches a reasonable 20 times NTM free cash flow and 18 times estimated earnings.
June 24, 2025 at 4:16 PM
PINS, with key metrics trending in the right direction, fetches a reasonable 20 times NTM free cash flow and 18 times estimated earnings.
A lot is trending well at UBER while it trades at 16.7 times NTM free cash flow estimates, or a forward FCF yield of 6%.
June 24, 2025 at 4:14 PM
A lot is trending well at UBER while it trades at 16.7 times NTM free cash flow estimates, or a forward FCF yield of 6%.
Here are some long-term stock holdings I’m still optimistic to hold: V, MA, AXP, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, PAYC, TTD, ORCL (surprisingly), MELI, META, NOW, GOOG, VRSN, ADBE, VRSK, CME…
June 19, 2025 at 2:45 AM
Here are some long-term stock holdings I’m still optimistic to hold: V, MA, AXP, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, PAYC, TTD, ORCL (surprisingly), MELI, META, NOW, GOOG, VRSN, ADBE, VRSK, CME…
If you have a 1,000% gain on a stock, and it gains another 100%, many would think that’s a 1,100% gain. But it’s up 2,000% at that point. It went from 10x your original investment to 20x.
June 12, 2025 at 1:41 AM
If you have a 1,000% gain on a stock, and it gains another 100%, many would think that’s a 1,100% gain. But it’s up 2,000% at that point. It went from 10x your original investment to 20x.
CRDO is a rare case where GAAP net income and FCF arrive right as revenue hits an inflection point and jumps. With three hyperscalers as core customers, including MSFT and AMZN, and two more expected to sign on in FY26 (which just started), Credo looks promising.
June 10, 2025 at 12:00 PM
CRDO is a rare case where GAAP net income and FCF arrive right as revenue hits an inflection point and jumps. With three hyperscalers as core customers, including MSFT and AMZN, and two more expected to sign on in FY26 (which just started), Credo looks promising.
Reposted by Jeff Fischer
Not the best environment to have jobless claims at an 8-month high — and Challenger layoffs running 80% above last year.
June 7, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Not the best environment to have jobless claims at an 8-month high — and Challenger layoffs running 80% above last year.
$ETSY is an interesting story. The company has not been able to grow gross merchandise sales (GMS) since Q1 2022 (Pandemic bump), but has slowly grown revenue regardless. There are limits to its take rate, though. It has strong FCF, and fetches only 8x FCF.
June 2, 2025 at 8:11 PM
$ETSY is an interesting story. The company has not been able to grow gross merchandise sales (GMS) since Q1 2022 (Pandemic bump), but has slowly grown revenue regardless. There are limits to its take rate, though. It has strong FCF, and fetches only 8x FCF.
PAYC has been in price recovery mode, with the stock up 26% YTD, and 78% the past year. Now at 37x trailing and forward FCF, it no longer looks cheap unless growth accelerates. (I own shares.)
June 1, 2025 at 1:53 PM
PAYC has been in price recovery mode, with the stock up 26% YTD, and 78% the past year. Now at 37x trailing and forward FCF, it no longer looks cheap unless growth accelerates. (I own shares.)
Valued on free cash flow, some of the less expensive companies I follow and hold:
May 15, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Valued on free cash flow, some of the less expensive companies I follow and hold: