With that I will say this - *EVERYTHING -TRACK, TIMING & TYPE - IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE*. Chances are, knowing how forecasting winter weather is, things likely will.

What I can tell you about right now is that both major models - the GFS (American) & the EURO - are correlating in the system moving more to the east, with only our most eastern counties (Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester) impacted & considerable totals being confined to areas along the Atlantic coast.

Please stay bundled up & limit time outside if you must venture out!

#MDWX #MarylandWX #MarylandWeather #BaltimoreWeather #BaltimoreWX #KLWX #410WX

For Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset & Worcester counties, this will go until 10am tomorrow. Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot & Caroline counties are under the advisory until 10am Wednesday. Wind chill values could be as cold as -5°F to the south & -18F° by early tomorrow as well!

Everybody else is under a Cold Weather Advisory. For Central & Southern Maryland, Cecil County, Washington County & the Eastern two-thirds of Allegany County, this will go through 11am tomorrow.

TLDR: Model runs between both major computer models have fluctuated substantially since Sunday, and therefore there is a lot of uncertainty regarding totals. If any precipitation falls, it be very much cold enough to be snow statewide, but how much can not be forecasted with confidence just yet.

New model runs should come in later this evening, and I will observe for any consistencies or changes. (9/9)

The mid-morning run today moved the track back south, and can you guess what this afternoon's run did? Took the track back north once again.

This lack of consistency in the models is why I am not putting out preliminary totals until at earliest, Thursday. (8/9)

The GFS runs have greatly fluctuated in track. Sunday & early yesterday's model runs took the track mainly to the south. The model runs late yesterday took the line of fire back north towards Maryland. (7/9)

The European Computer Model runs the last two days had the system track with the highest snowfall towards southern Maryland and into Virginia. Today's runs so far have had the track move more north, with big totals within both of our metropolitan zones - think 10"+ of snow. (6/9)

Both of the major global models used - the American (GFS) & the European (EURO) have been very inconsistent with the track of the upcoming system. Granted, other models are used to find correlation or agreeance, but these are the, "Big 2", so to speak. (5/9)

But notice how I said *if* as it pertains to the track and timing. The exact timing is an uncertainty and the track is the ultimate wildcard in this cruel game of weather UNO. (4/9)

A strong cold front usher in another blast of cold air for this weekend, not quite as cold as the last two days though. This will ensure that everyone will see some form of winter precipitation, but mainly snow. (3/9)

In winter storm systems, there are three aspects in which I call "T-Factors" - Type, Track, Timing. The type, if the other two were to come to fruition, is essentially set in stone for the state. (2/9)