Microsoft dropped about 60% or more after the browser DOJ stuff (when I was there) and didn't recover for over 12 years or so.

They got lucky that GPU style processing works well for ML and AI processing.

ML won't die. The current model of Generative AI might. Or suffer a 3rd AI winter.

You might buy an Nvidia card but it's made by Asus or Gigabyte or MSI or whoever. Nvidia has no inventory risk. No plants to build or finance.

That's not really how Nvidia works. They design chips, Taiwan Semiconductor manufactures them, and other partners manufacture and sell the cards. Their model makes them almost entirely an intellectual property play, a massive departure from old school graphics card companies.

And I suggested "maybe an immutable audit trail for user events" with a cheap qldb solution and they did that. May have dropped it since then but it at least didn't bankrupt them (they went public)

I also had a gig that wanted to use blockchain for some sort of points system, mainly for marketing reasons. That plan was abandoned when I showed them the cost of running federated networks, plus their go to market timeline didn't mesh with an outsourced vendor estimate. They still wanted the angle

Oh not to worry my cynicism has never affected my ability to find work. Even when I publicly critized crypto shit, crypto companies would still reach out. I even came close to accepting something with a regulator-friendly business plan, in spite of skepticism.

NVidia basically has no debt (<1% of the current stock value), so they're more like a money printing machine that can simply retreat when the going gets tough and they'll pull through. But these AI startups will spiral hard when they fail.

Yeah. My estimate is Nvidia's stock and revenues retreat painfully (maybe 80% even) but the business itself will survive unless the go big on debt. But the big AI-only players that fail will go to zero and fuck up the rest of the economy.

While I think there's almost certainly some "there", some future with AI stuff, in spite of my cynicism about the industry, the valuations don't make sense even for optimistic cases. But there's so much charlatanism even at the top executive levels of heavily funded AI startups.

They doubled down on WeWork when it looked even to average folks like a sketchy investment. They did up with a 20% share even post-bankruptcy, so maybe they'll recover from that in 20 years or so.

I don't think NVidia is a bad investment. But if the AI bubble collapses they'll suffer too.

I made a trip to the US last year and I think I bought a pair of pants or two, but it looks like it's been a couple years since I last ordered online. Which explains why I had so few; pretty sure I retired some last spring.

For pajamas, hoping Uniqlo online shopping will produce ok results.

I found decent prices on beans and latin ingredients at Kyodai Market in Gotanda but it's a trek for me. Also sometimes at Indian groceries (and I think one or two of them ship). But it would be nice for these to be non extravagant at neighborhood markets. Or more variety than cannelini, red kidney