Regardless I thought yours was the most articulate and full discussion of the factors at play so far!

Then there is the broader point on why the EU might yes even with opt outs: UK financial contribution and more importantly the existential mission of the EU to unite Europe

It made me wonder if the likeliest compromise would be joining JHA & Schengen but UK keeps £. UK could argue to EU states that Schengen makes another exit impossible due to Irish border (presuming IE also enters). Schengen (& mig pact) would be easier domestic sells following post-Brexit experience

📢 @jamesrdennison.bsky.social, @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social & Mariana Carmo Duarte: Migration communication campaigns: towards a research agenda and open database 🔗https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2024.2419550