James Wiley
@jamescwiley.bsky.social
Statistician | Independent researcher | interests include evolutionary biology, suicide, psychology, and philosophy of science. Opinions expressed are my own.
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5049-573X
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5049-573X
Maybe of interest, I've been looking at the other side of the same coin—that suicide rates get censored by increases in other-cause mortality. Suicide rates increase with declining death rates coming out of the flu season, with COVID providing a nice natural experiment:
osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
November 6, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Maybe of interest, I've been looking at the other side of the same coin—that suicide rates get censored by increases in other-cause mortality. Suicide rates increase with declining death rates coming out of the flu season, with COVID providing a nice natural experiment:
osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
While PsyArXiv is going through some growing pains, you can find the most up-to-date version of the preprint here:
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
(PDF) Why do suicide rates increase in the spring and decrease in the fall? Insights from an empirical evaluation of Stengel's social hypothesis on suicide
PDF | In 1952, the psychiatrist Erwin Stengel hypothesized that suicide becomes rarer in times when the value of life within a society is lower, when... | Find, read and cite all the research you need...
www.researchgate.net
August 26, 2025 at 3:45 PM
While PsyArXiv is going through some growing pains, you can find the most up-to-date version of the preprint here:
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
July 7, 2025 at 4:30 PM
The recommended prompts it gave were also gold:
July 1, 2025 at 2:16 AM
The recommended prompts it gave were also gold:
I wonder what they’re suggesting here? ☹
July 1, 2025 at 2:16 AM
I wonder what they’re suggesting here? ☹
The model seems to be overtrained on erratic online discourse 🤔
July 1, 2025 at 2:16 AM
The model seems to be overtrained on erratic online discourse 🤔
7/7 In conclusion, accounting for death rates may be necessary before interpreting fluctuations in suicide rates.
May 2, 2025 at 12:26 PM
7/7 In conclusion, accounting for death rates may be necessary before interpreting fluctuations in suicide rates.
6/7 Why care? Consider previous research suggests increasing temperatures drive suicides. I show that time-of-year (proxy for temperature) is not causal of suicide—rather, death rates (which are higher in winter months) drive suicide.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico - Nature Climate Change
A 1 °C increase in monthly average temperature is associated with higher suicide rates in the United States and Mexico. Combined with comparable analysis of depressive language in US Twitter updates, ...
www.nature.com
May 2, 2025 at 12:26 PM
6/7 Why care? Consider previous research suggests increasing temperatures drive suicides. I show that time-of-year (proxy for temperature) is not causal of suicide—rather, death rates (which are higher in winter months) drive suicide.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
5/7 I offer an alternative interpretation to Stengel’s theory: that each non-suicide-related death removes a potential suicide from the population. Thus the death rate censors the suicide rate.
May 2, 2025 at 12:26 PM
5/7 I offer an alternative interpretation to Stengel’s theory: that each non-suicide-related death removes a potential suicide from the population. Thus the death rate censors the suicide rate.
4/7 I then test whether the pre-pandemic correlation between death rates and suicide rates can predict the 2020 suicide rates. Results are good:
May 2, 2025 at 12:26 PM
4/7 I then test whether the pre-pandemic correlation between death rates and suicide rates can predict the 2020 suicide rates. Results are good:
3/7 In 2020, the seasonal pattern for death rates was disrupted due to inordinate deaths occurring at an atypical time of year. Suicide rates show an exact inverse break in their seasonality relative to death rates. Is this just a coincidence? 🤔
May 2, 2025 at 12:26 PM
3/7 In 2020, the seasonal pattern for death rates was disrupted due to inordinate deaths occurring at an atypical time of year. Suicide rates show an exact inverse break in their seasonality relative to death rates. Is this just a coincidence? 🤔