James Wiley
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jamescwiley.bsky.social
James Wiley
@jamescwiley.bsky.social
Statistician | Independent researcher | interests include evolutionary biology, suicide, psychology, and philosophy of science. Opinions expressed are my own.

ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5049-573X
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1/7 PREPRINT UPDATE – I’ve overhauled my paper looking at correlations between suicide rates and death rates, examining Stengel’s theory that suicide becomes rarer when the value of life within a society diminishes, when death is common. #suicidology
osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
Scores of reports showing that those with chronic suicidality and a desire for death do die by suicide, just some of them use AI now. I don't dismiss these, but they don't show what people think they show. One could do the relevant research with the funding OpenAI is offering. Why not be productive?
December 3, 2025 at 2:29 PM
No one has actually done any effective anaylsis to-date to see if the suicide rate has increased with the inception of AI. Before AI, people died by suicide. Now that AI is extremely prevelant, it is easy to blame it for problems that have always existed in our society.
The announcement is deceiving. OpenAI is funding grants w/ budgets "between $5,000 and $100,000."

That's like throwing a penny at a tornado. OpenAI is facing lawsuits alleging that ChatGPT drove ppl to delusions and suicide — and this is their answer? You can't do research with such a paltry sum.
like big tobacco funding cancer research
December 3, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Reposted by James Wiley
Congrats to Amanda on publishing one of her thesis papers! 🥳
@sarahevictor.bsky.social

📰 Between Urges and Actions: Unpacking Affective Dynamics in NSSI 📰

Get your copy! authors.elsevier.com/c/1m5ih_8RBg...

@abct-ssi-sig.bsky.social @iasr-suicide.bsky.social @suicideresearchsym.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Maybe of interest, I've been looking at the other side of the same coin—that suicide rates get censored by increases in other-cause mortality. Suicide rates increase with declining death rates coming out of the flu season, with COVID providing a nice natural experiment:
osf.io/preprints/ps...
November 6, 2025 at 3:29 PM
The COVID natural experiment suggests something very different. Suicide rates increase with declining death rates coming out of the flu season. When death rates are disrupted, suicide rates are also disrupted:
osf.io/preprints/ps...
September 30, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Higher suicide rates often coincide with longer life expectancy. On their own, they are not necessarily a sign of societal decline. For instance, the drop in suicide rates during COVID does not imply that the pandemic was a time of joy or prosperity.

www.researchgate.net/publication/...
September 4, 2025 at 3:13 PM
The NYT article is well balanced. Even researchers who examine the sensitive issue of direct causation in suicide would find too little here to justify placing blame on any single factor. It’s an interesting case, but I don’t expect the lawsuit to be successful.
Adam Raine, 16, died from suicide in April after months on ChatGPT discussing plans to end his life. His parents have filed the first known case against OpenAI for wrongful death.

Overwhelming at times to work on this story, but here it is. My latest on AI chatbots: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/t...
A Teen Was Suicidal. ChatGPT Was the Friend He Confided In.
www.nytimes.com
August 26, 2025 at 9:00 PM
While PsyArXiv is going through some growing pains, you can find the most up-to-date version of the preprint here:
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
(PDF) Why do suicide rates increase in the spring and decrease in the fall? Insights from an empirical evaluation of Stengel's social hypothesis on suicide
PDF | In 1952, the psychiatrist Erwin Stengel hypothesized that suicide becomes rarer in times when the value of life within a society is lower, when... | Find, read and cite all the research you need...
www.researchgate.net
August 26, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Imagine the IRL version of this. AI body cam on a SWAT officer assesses threat level of a target in a split second and has the officer kill the target before the officer could ever react.
youtu.be/9alJwQG-Wbk?...
August 12, 2025 at 4:22 PM
To be fair, the type of content generated by LLMs also plays a role 😛

bsky.app/profile/jame...
July 7, 2025 at 4:30 PM
The problem may be worse than it looks. Higher mortality rates suppress suicide rates—likely because deaths from other causes preclude later suicides. Rural areas have higher mortality. So how much higher are suicide rates there, after adjusting for this?

osf.io/preprints/ps...
July 7, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Reposted by James Wiley
🌟New publication!🌟

Feasibility and Acceptability of a Brief Intervention for Youth Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors Among Pediatric Primary Care Providers

It was great to be part of the team on this project. I’m excited about continuing this work! @cmpinciotti.bsky.social

#suicideprevention
July 2, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Reposted by James Wiley
Almost exactly one year after starting my lab (!), I'm thrilled to share our first preprint! 🥳 @leilyb.bsky.social @sharinahamm.bsky.social @francesghart.bsky.social

We propose future directions for mathematical, computational, & digital methods to advance suicide research: osf.io/preprints/ps...
July 2, 2025 at 7:14 PM
The recommended prompts it gave were also gold:
July 1, 2025 at 2:16 AM
I wonder what they’re suggesting here? ☹
July 1, 2025 at 2:16 AM
The model seems to be overtrained on erratic online discourse 🤔
July 1, 2025 at 2:16 AM
I totally broke a ChatGPT guardrail today:
July 1, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Reposted by James Wiley
A new piece in @psypost.bsky.social on our recent study published in Adaptive Human Behavior and Physiology. Check it out!
https://www.psypost.org/fathers-with-more-dominant-looking-faces-are-more-likely-to-have-sons/
t.co
June 23, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Reposted by James Wiley
This feels a bit like when your child does something amazing and you feel like you want to take the credit but can't really. My new book Alchemy: An Illustrated History has arrived, and it looks *gorgeous*.
June 18, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Reposted by James Wiley
It’s kinda wild how psychologists will just keep developing “paradigms” targeting estimands that are less and less plausibly empirically identified, because somehow that’s the epitome of rigorous theorizing (tm)
@shuhbillskee.bsky.social, Niklas Johannes & I finally submitted our critique of a "new paradigm" in social media effects research for peer-review at Meta-Psychology. If you're interested in reviewing, please submit a review to open.peer.reviewer@gmail.com or e.g. prereview.org, or reply here.
May 29, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Can I list Coffee as a co-author?
May 27, 2025 at 3:33 PM
7/7 In conclusion, accounting for death rates may be necessary before interpreting fluctuations in suicide rates.
May 2, 2025 at 12:26 PM
6/7 Why care? Consider previous research suggests increasing temperatures drive suicides. I show that time-of-year (proxy for temperature) is not causal of suicide—rather, death rates (which are higher in winter months) drive suicide.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico - Nature Climate Change
A 1 °C increase in monthly average temperature is associated with higher suicide rates in the United States and Mexico. Combined with comparable analysis of depressive language in US Twitter updates, ...
www.nature.com
May 2, 2025 at 12:26 PM