Everything just nose dives off cliff. If you're looking for the raw stuff alone (based on a std dev of 10 per his updated model) it remains ludicrous how impressive his arsenal is:

Aaron Ashby is filthy dude.
Jeremy Maschino's dynamic dead zone model highlights why hitters can't barrel him up. Every pitch drops noticeably more than a hitter would expect from that release point (solid circles are the actual movement ranges, shadows are expected movement). Like a LOT more

@rdtopp.bsky.social that's how Trevor Megill's fastball looks compared to the "dead zone"

Disgusting #brewers

This initially seems like a heck of an overpay, Yophery Rodriguez for a former top prospect, if a stalling one, in Quinn Priester (uncertainty if a Comp A draft pick is included).
The sinker has some added break and velo early doors, and the new cutter looks good. The Brewers need to work magic

Caleb Durbin has hit the ball hard-ish so far in Nashville where even being 50th percentile is a big upgrade for him. Very small sample size, but the power output has been strong thus far carrying over from a good AFL showing

It also seems like Jacob Misiorowski has found a pitch he can more consistently keep in the zone. The slider has become a more consistent shape, more cuttery and his control is better as a result. Small strides from the big man, but I do hope the quality of contact he's allowed is a SSS issue

A lot of Connor Thomas success last season was based on the sweeper as a primary offering. It's his one average stuff+ grade per @tjstats.ca however the Brewers/Contreras have almost cut its usage in half.
The sinker/cutter combo are not strong enough for this type of pitch mix

The velo drop on everything Cortes throws is slightly concerning given his elbow issues at the end of 2024. Especially for someone who is so fastball heavy with the 4S/cutter.
All while that arm angle got higher

🧵Oli Dunn skipped Triple A and had a rough start to the Major leagues. Shocker. If given time to adapt the talent is there for five tool upside. It's a volatile profile. The below graphic is over a mere 70 swings in Triple A but it does show some improvements in contact rate

If the #brewers can mildly improve Garcia's location, his stuff+ and tunnelling scores are strong enough that even a 45 grade command could be enough to find success as a starting pitcher.
Look at the position of those dots at decision point vs where his arsenal finishes, just extreme separation.

Joey Ortiz had a major drop off when dealing with his neck injury in 2024, but was lurking around league average as far as "damage" goes for the rest of the season. That spike is what he can do if he learns to elevate the ball #brewers

If the Brewers could instil even the slightest plate discipline in Sosa he could be one of the most consistent bats in their line-up. A RH foil to Turang at second base, excellent in zone contact rates, and solid power. If he can just stop giving up cheap outs on "B-swings" when chasing pitches

Intriguingly, it didn't come on the fastball, where he got less 4S IZ whiffs than Colin Rea by a full percentage point.
But Peralta does rank 5th in IZ whiffs on breaking pitches for those who started 15+ games and threw 400+ pitches.

In zone whiff rate is such a good indicator of quality stuff. You can see that with the names on this list.
It constantly feels like there's something, some tiny tweak in his arsenal/approach that can transform Freddy Peralta into a dominant pitcher.
Then again, it's felt like that since 2021

In September, Deivi Garcia had a 32.1% K Rate and 3.8% BB rate. Lowish arm slot, low VAA, high IVB for his slot gives him good swing and miss on his primary fastball. The addition of the sweeper will help everything play up, and I like the depth curveball and how the profile differs from his arsenal