Our @refugeecouncil.bsky.social analysis suggests that by the next election in 2029 the Home Office could need to process around 100,000 status reviews - about the same size as the current asylum backlog.

The last Labour government had multiple integration strategies - this government appears to be pursuing the opposite.

It’s also a massive administrative challenge. Instead of only processing one ILR application at the 5 year mark, it could be 8 applications over 20 years.

In the UK

75% of ppl with graduate parents attend higher education

42% of ppl with nongraduate parents attend HE

It therefore appears that the social class gap in well paid jobs is primarily driven by different HE participation rates. If more working class kids went to HE, earnings gaps wd narrow

Labour will lose in Scotland, Wales to left challengers, and probably heavily in London too, through low turnout, defection to progressives, some losses to populists as a smaller contribution. Rebuilding that with an "but its us or Reform" basis may be harder than the current leadership acknowledges

Going to leave you with a Home Office chart from their most recent asylum stats so you can decide whether the UK is a magnet for asylum seekers with a uniquely generous asylum system www.gov.uk/government/s...

"Compared with other European countries, the UK received the fifth largest number of asylum seekers in the year ending March 2025, and the seventeenth largest intake when measured per head of population" - Home Office data
www.gov.uk/government/s...