Jack Worth
@jackworth.bsky.social
Education economist at NFER researching recruitment and retention in the education workforce
Our analysis implies retention payments have a high marginal cost compared to bursaries
This suggests that a 'bursaries first' policy approach is probably always best, which aligns with the findings from the Maths Phased Bursary evaluation www.gov.uk/government/p...
This suggests that a 'bursaries first' policy approach is probably always best, which aligns with the findings from the Maths Phased Bursary evaluation www.gov.uk/government/p...
June 26, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Our analysis implies retention payments have a high marginal cost compared to bursaries
This suggests that a 'bursaries first' policy approach is probably always best, which aligns with the findings from the Maths Phased Bursary evaluation www.gov.uk/government/p...
This suggests that a 'bursaries first' policy approach is probably always best, which aligns with the findings from the Maths Phased Bursary evaluation www.gov.uk/government/p...
In summary, the retention impacts were somewhat mixed and generally not statistically significant. Overall, it suggested an association with lower retention rates, but wasn't conclusive
June 26, 2025 at 10:06 AM
In summary, the retention impacts were somewhat mixed and generally not statistically significant. Overall, it suggested an association with lower retention rates, but wasn't conclusive
Worth noting that the long view suggests that the secondary targets have, in general, been unusually high in the last few years.
And that interpreting a time series of %s of target doesn't give the full picture on what's really happening
And that interpreting a time series of %s of target doesn't give the full picture on what's really happening
April 29, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Worth noting that the long view suggests that the secondary targets have, in general, been unusually high in the last few years.
And that interpreting a time series of %s of target doesn't give the full picture on what's really happening
And that interpreting a time series of %s of target doesn't give the full picture on what's really happening
With the uptick in recruitment evident in yesterday's application stats, our overall forecast of the ITT outcomes for Sep 2025 is now looking much more positive
Maths, science, English, primary: all forecast to be at/above target this year
Secondary overall still below target by 15%.
Maths, science, English, primary: all forecast to be at/above target this year
Secondary overall still below target by 15%.
April 29, 2025 at 1:02 PM
With the uptick in recruitment evident in yesterday's application stats, our overall forecast of the ITT outcomes for Sep 2025 is now looking much more positive
Maths, science, English, primary: all forecast to be at/above target this year
Secondary overall still below target by 15%.
Maths, science, English, primary: all forecast to be at/above target this year
Secondary overall still below target by 15%.
The stats release explains that it is due to a number of different factors that have changed since last model, including:
- fewer teachers forecast to leave
- higher ITT recruitment last year than previous
- pupil growth rate decelerating
- more returners
- fewer teachers forecast to leave
- higher ITT recruitment last year than previous
- pupil growth rate decelerating
- more returners
April 29, 2025 at 1:02 PM
The stats release explains that it is due to a number of different factors that have changed since last model, including:
- fewer teachers forecast to leave
- higher ITT recruitment last year than previous
- pupil growth rate decelerating
- more returners
- fewer teachers forecast to leave
- higher ITT recruitment last year than previous
- pupil growth rate decelerating
- more returners
DfE published some hefty changes to the ITT recruitment targets this morning
- down overall and across phases by around 20%
- some subjects like physics/ MFL down by more than a third
- down overall and across phases by around 20%
- some subjects like physics/ MFL down by more than a third
April 29, 2025 at 1:02 PM
DfE published some hefty changes to the ITT recruitment targets this morning
- down overall and across phases by around 20%
- some subjects like physics/ MFL down by more than a third
- down overall and across phases by around 20%
- some subjects like physics/ MFL down by more than a third
It's also mostly from growth in applicants based in England, aside from continued growth in physics recruitment from the rest of the world (where trainees continue to be eligible for a bursary).
April 28, 2025 at 9:56 AM
It's also mostly from growth in applicants based in England, aside from continued growth in physics recruitment from the rest of the world (where trainees continue to be eligible for a bursary).
From what we know about how impactful they are, it's mostly not coming from bursaries this year. The bursaries have not changed much from last year (except for English, where it is the main factor), and nowhere near enough to explain some of the big changes e.g. computing and physics
April 28, 2025 at 9:56 AM
From what we know about how impactful they are, it's mostly not coming from bursaries this year. The bursaries have not changed much from last year (except for English, where it is the main factor), and nowhere near enough to explain some of the big changes e.g. computing and physics
There are some real positive signs in the latest ITT recruitment data of improvement vs last year, especially in secondary. I will hold off updating the forecast until tomorrow, when targets are published.
But it's interesting to see where the growth is and isn't coming from...🧵
But it's interesting to see where the growth is and isn't coming from...🧵
April 28, 2025 at 9:56 AM
There are some real positive signs in the latest ITT recruitment data of improvement vs last year, especially in secondary. I will hold off updating the forecast until tomorrow, when targets are published.
But it's interesting to see where the growth is and isn't coming from...🧵
But it's interesting to see where the growth is and isn't coming from...🧵
The international picture is intriguing. Applications are down a bit, but accepted offers up, so something has shifted the acceptance rate up quite a bit.
March 25, 2025 at 1:46 PM
The international picture is intriguing. Applications are down a bit, but accepted offers up, so something has shifted the acceptance rate up quite a bit.
Not sure, but my leading contenders are:
1) tightening wider labour market, especially for tech jobs (www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...)
2) lagged effect of 5.5% pay increase
3) increased recruitment marketing spend (but have no data to prove it)
1) tightening wider labour market, especially for tech jobs (www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...)
2) lagged effect of 5.5% pay increase
3) increased recruitment marketing spend (but have no data to prove it)
March 25, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Not sure, but my leading contenders are:
1) tightening wider labour market, especially for tech jobs (www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...)
2) lagged effect of 5.5% pay increase
3) increased recruitment marketing spend (but have no data to prove it)
1) tightening wider labour market, especially for tech jobs (www.nfer.ac.uk/publications...)
2) lagged effect of 5.5% pay increase
3) increased recruitment marketing spend (but have no data to prove it)
Latest ITT statistics are somewhat positive, with most secondary subjects - especially shortage ones - recruiting better than last year. Primary down a smidge, English down due to bursary cut
But majority still likely to be below target (this is last year's targets: new actuals out next month)
But majority still likely to be below target (this is last year's targets: new actuals out next month)
March 24, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Latest ITT statistics are somewhat positive, with most secondary subjects - especially shortage ones - recruiting better than last year. Primary down a smidge, English down due to bursary cut
But majority still likely to be below target (this is last year's targets: new actuals out next month)
But majority still likely to be below target (this is last year's targets: new actuals out next month)
Vacancies and temporarily-filled posts in secondary schools have been growing rapidly the last few years, but this has mostly been in the schools with the most disadvantaged intakes
February 27, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Vacancies and temporarily-filled posts in secondary schools have been growing rapidly the last few years, but this has mostly been in the schools with the most disadvantaged intakes
Special school teachers are less likely to have QTS. This may suggest special schools are more willing to use a wider pool of candidates when recruiting teachers. This disparity may relate to shortages and may affect education quality, so should be monitored by policymakers
February 25, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Special school teachers are less likely to have QTS. This may suggest special schools are more willing to use a wider pool of candidates when recruiting teachers. This disparity may relate to shortages and may affect education quality, so should be monitored by policymakers
Statistics show that unfilled vacancies are high in 'Special/ AP'. When we split these out we find that AP has very high vacancies(!) but also that special schools have a similar level to secondaries, where shortages have been growing.
We think DfE should split them out in its statistics
We think DfE should split them out in its statistics
February 25, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Statistics show that unfilled vacancies are high in 'Special/ AP'. When we split these out we find that AP has very high vacancies(!) but also that special schools have a similar level to secondaries, where shortages have been growing.
We think DfE should split them out in its statistics
We think DfE should split them out in its statistics
Special schools employ a lot of staff, including many TAs. PTRs and PSRs are low. Not surprising given the needs they cater for, but has implications for funding if settlements are based on 'typical' staffing in mainstream
Special schools should always be fully funded to increase support staff pay
Special schools should always be fully funded to increase support staff pay
February 25, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Special schools employ a lot of staff, including many TAs. PTRs and PSRs are low. Not surprising given the needs they cater for, but has implications for funding if settlements are based on 'typical' staffing in mainstream
Special schools should always be fully funded to increase support staff pay
Special schools should always be fully funded to increase support staff pay
Last year saw a big increase in applicants from outside the UK and EEA, but with a high rejection %
While this year has seen a reversal in international *application* numbers, the number getting *places* has increased. The opposite domestically, where applications are up, but places not by as much
While this year has seen a reversal in international *application* numbers, the number getting *places* has increased. The opposite domestically, where applications are up, but places not by as much
February 24, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Last year saw a big increase in applicants from outside the UK and EEA, but with a high rejection %
While this year has seen a reversal in international *application* numbers, the number getting *places* has increased. The opposite domestically, where applications are up, but places not by as much
While this year has seen a reversal in international *application* numbers, the number getting *places* has increased. The opposite domestically, where applications are up, but places not by as much
A lot of subjects are up on last year, which is positive, including a few STEM subjects. English is down 22%, almost certainly because of the bursary cuts from £15k to £10 last year, and £5k this
Primary down again, continuing the trend in recent years of declining numbers entering postgraduate ITT
Primary down again, continuing the trend in recent years of declining numbers entering postgraduate ITT
February 24, 2025 at 10:07 AM
A lot of subjects are up on last year, which is positive, including a few STEM subjects. English is down 22%, almost certainly because of the bursary cuts from £15k to £10 last year, and £5k this
Primary down again, continuing the trend in recent years of declining numbers entering postgraduate ITT
Primary down again, continuing the trend in recent years of declining numbers entering postgraduate ITT
No probs. It's on the ITT Census statistical release page, hiding in 'Additional supporting files'. There will be similar files in previous years too (although I think the subject breakdowns have changed categorisation over the years)
January 23, 2025 at 4:07 PM
No probs. It's on the ITT Census statistical release page, hiding in 'Additional supporting files'. There will be similar files in previous years too (although I think the subject breakdowns have changed categorisation over the years)
A good few hours spent at the Brutalist Palace, giving evidence on teacher recruitment & retention to Mary Bousted's Teaching Commission
December 16, 2024 at 2:36 PM
A good few hours spent at the Brutalist Palace, giving evidence on teacher recruitment & retention to Mary Bousted's Teaching Commission
Does outsourcing lesson planning to AI reduce teachers' agency?
Many teachers actually found the opposite: reducing 'grunt work' of producing quizzes/activities and focusing on the bits of planning where teachers' expertise and creativity is crucial
Many teachers actually found the opposite: reducing 'grunt work' of producing quizzes/activities and focusing on the bits of planning where teachers' expertise and creativity is crucial
December 12, 2024 at 10:13 AM
Does outsourcing lesson planning to AI reduce teachers' agency?
Many teachers actually found the opposite: reducing 'grunt work' of producing quizzes/activities and focusing on the bits of planning where teachers' expertise and creativity is crucial
Many teachers actually found the opposite: reducing 'grunt work' of producing quizzes/activities and focusing on the bits of planning where teachers' expertise and creativity is crucial
How did teachers use it?
Teachers tended to use ChatGPT for one or two activities rather than across the lesson, most commonly for creating questions/quizzes or finding new ideas for activities
Teachers tended to use ChatGPT for one or two activities rather than across the lesson, most commonly for creating questions/quizzes or finding new ideas for activities
December 12, 2024 at 10:13 AM
How did teachers use it?
Teachers tended to use ChatGPT for one or two activities rather than across the lesson, most commonly for creating questions/quizzes or finding new ideas for activities
Teachers tended to use ChatGPT for one or two activities rather than across the lesson, most commonly for creating questions/quizzes or finding new ideas for activities
On average, the secondary improvement is pretty much all down to bursary increases (plus a little bit to do with slightly lower targets)
December 5, 2024 at 10:09 AM
On average, the secondary improvement is pretty much all down to bursary increases (plus a little bit to do with slightly lower targets)
Official data shows recruitment to teacher training in England is a long way below target. Slight improvements on last year, but levels remain below pre-pandemic
- 38% below target for secondary overall
- 12 out of 17 subjects below respective targets
- 12% below target in usually-reliable primary
- 38% below target for secondary overall
- 12 out of 17 subjects below respective targets
- 12% below target in usually-reliable primary
December 5, 2024 at 9:53 AM
Official data shows recruitment to teacher training in England is a long way below target. Slight improvements on last year, but levels remain below pre-pandemic
- 38% below target for secondary overall
- 12 out of 17 subjects below respective targets
- 12% below target in usually-reliable primary
- 38% below target for secondary overall
- 12 out of 17 subjects below respective targets
- 12% below target in usually-reliable primary