Labour is betting on long-term delivery to rebuild trust. Focusing on delivery is the correct approach, but Labour needs to find a narrative. 8/8

Labour has prioritised making what they consider difficult decisions early in their tenure, a strategy that at times appeared as if they were intentionally courting unpopularity - and it has yielded results. Labour is now the most disliked major party in Britain. 7/8

Trust in Labour is fragile. They lead on 10 of 16 key issues, including the NHS (+7%) and cost of living (+2%), but their leads are slim compared to their time in opposition. Reform has no lead on any issue, suggesting it has some way to go before it becomes a credible governing alternative. 6/8

On the NHS, initial optimism has collapsed. In July, a plurality believed NHS outcomes would improve over the next five years. Six months later, pessimism dominates, with 57% of Conservatives and the majority of Reform voters now expressing low confidence. 5/8

Confidence in Labour’s handling of key issues is negative across the board. Immigration (-26%) and refugees/asylum (-29%) are the worst-rated areas, with discontent cutting across partisan lines. Even Labour voters lack confidence here. 4/8

Immigration is the defining issue for Reform. 38% of their voters rank it as their top concern, compared to just 25% of Conservatives. This outsized focus highlights Reform’s growing role in shaping the narrative on the right. 3/8

Reform finished second in 98 seats in July, 89 of which were Labour wins. But Reform currently poses a bigger challenge to the Conservatives than to Labour. 2024 Conservative voters are twice as likely as Labour voters to now plan to vote for Reform. 2/8