This isn't definitive, but my guess would be that surveys have just gotten worse at measuring this, and the trends are ~flat

I don't think declining mobility is a real trend---likely all measurement error in the CPS (which itself shows way lower migration rates than the ACS) carlmcpherson.github.io/files/mcpher...

Here's the footnote with the details www.cbo.gov/system/files...

Important context here is the CBO is currently being baselessly attacked by the right as biased towards Democrats, while this analytical choice is important to making OBBB look way less bad.

In the distributional analysis of OBBB, CBO assumes that a lot of the cost of losing Medicaid is felt by higher-income health care providers who will provide health care for free, not Medicaid recipients themselves

Love to find these super old CBPP reports when researching something

They make a number of criticisms of this study, and find after accounting for all these points, the investment effects would be far weaker.

I want to highlight its discussion of one paper that got a lot of attention, which found TCJA did cause a substantial increase in investment and a modest increase in wages (NYT called it “the most rigorous and detailed yet”). www.nytimes.com/2024/03/04/u...

New Congressional Research Service report concludes the TCJA had a minimal impact on the economy
www.congress.gov/crs-product/...

Good social science evidence that this is both 1) true and 2) central to the overall benefits of social security leelockwood.droppages.com/IGOASI.pdf

Really great stuff Illinois... Take the online Medicaid/SNAP/TANF benefits portal offline for a week is bad enough, now it's two weeks later, it's still down, and you can't even update the message of when it will be available.

This really resonates with me democracyjournal.org/arguments/po...

💪💪💪 thanks AI

Intererting and topical article on party-leaders influence on roll call votes drive.google.com/file/d/1HPjy...

Application requirements for an old Obama-era weatherization program vs. new IRA energy efficiency program. Crazy requirements (everyone's social security card??) vs. self-reporting your income or verifying via eligibility in some other safety net program