Ivan CoAn
@ivancoan.bsky.social
Into foreign affairs, security, and all things military
Monitoring recent evolutions in US intelligence
Swiss 🇨🇭 with Balkanic roots 🇺🇦🌻🍉
Monitoring recent evolutions in US intelligence
Swiss 🇨🇭 with Balkanic roots 🇺🇦🌻🍉
What I'm most interested in is 1) their ability to recognise vehicles with layers of camouflage/add-on cage armour, 2) their ability to find/create gaps in said armour and exploit them and 3) their actual pK.
That's where I'm uncertain that the data even exists to properly train the AI.
That's where I'm uncertain that the data even exists to properly train the AI.
September 14, 2025 at 11:23 AM
What I'm most interested in is 1) their ability to recognise vehicles with layers of camouflage/add-on cage armour, 2) their ability to find/create gaps in said armour and exploit them and 3) their actual pK.
That's where I'm uncertain that the data even exists to properly train the AI.
That's where I'm uncertain that the data even exists to properly train the AI.
For Switzerland, it's due to land scarcity. We have 80% of the pop living on 20% of the territory, the rest being mountains, NIMBY municipalities, natural parks, or inaccessible by Swiss standards.
"Creative engineering" becomes the only solution basically, despite the cost of such projects.
"Creative engineering" becomes the only solution basically, despite the cost of such projects.
August 17, 2025 at 3:16 PM
For Switzerland, it's due to land scarcity. We have 80% of the pop living on 20% of the territory, the rest being mountains, NIMBY municipalities, natural parks, or inaccessible by Swiss standards.
"Creative engineering" becomes the only solution basically, despite the cost of such projects.
"Creative engineering" becomes the only solution basically, despite the cost of such projects.
The fact is that Switzerland didn't join WWII due to intl obligation (Paris 1815, Versailles 1920), and due to the major risk to its population and survival in 1940-45. It upheld armed neutrality instead.
I don't see how you equate non-participation with being devoid of morality. There's a stretch.
I don't see how you equate non-participation with being devoid of morality. There's a stretch.
August 16, 2025 at 1:04 AM
The fact is that Switzerland didn't join WWII due to intl obligation (Paris 1815, Versailles 1920), and due to the major risk to its population and survival in 1940-45. It upheld armed neutrality instead.
I don't see how you equate non-participation with being devoid of morality. There's a stretch.
I don't see how you equate non-participation with being devoid of morality. There's a stretch.
Operation Tannenbaum was the planned invasion of Switzerland in 1940, only def suspended after D-Day. It relied on attacks NE and SW into the central plateau.
Some friends wargamed it, and they found that the plateau wasn't really defendable. High attrition on the Germans was the best outcome.
Some friends wargamed it, and they found that the plateau wasn't really defendable. High attrition on the Germans was the best outcome.
August 16, 2025 at 12:47 AM
Operation Tannenbaum was the planned invasion of Switzerland in 1940, only def suspended after D-Day. It relied on attacks NE and SW into the central plateau.
Some friends wargamed it, and they found that the plateau wasn't really defendable. High attrition on the Germans was the best outcome.
Some friends wargamed it, and they found that the plateau wasn't really defendable. High attrition on the Germans was the best outcome.
80% of the pop lives on the central plateau (2), with little natural barriers capable of stopping the Wehrmacht.
The National Redoubt plan relied on progressively ceding pop centres while retreating to the mountains. It aimed for deterrence but was deeply flawed politically.
Thx for engaging!
The National Redoubt plan relied on progressively ceding pop centres while retreating to the mountains. It aimed for deterrence but was deeply flawed politically.
Thx for engaging!
August 16, 2025 at 12:17 AM
80% of the pop lives on the central plateau (2), with little natural barriers capable of stopping the Wehrmacht.
The National Redoubt plan relied on progressively ceding pop centres while retreating to the mountains. It aimed for deterrence but was deeply flawed politically.
Thx for engaging!
The National Redoubt plan relied on progressively ceding pop centres while retreating to the mountains. It aimed for deterrence but was deeply flawed politically.
Thx for engaging!
I'm always amused when we Swiss get shocked and offended because the World grants us our wish and leaves us alone.
Debates over neutrality promise to be interesting in the coming months.
Debates over neutrality promise to be interesting in the coming months.
August 11, 2025 at 5:57 PM
I'm always amused when we Swiss get shocked and offended because the World grants us our wish and leaves us alone.
Debates over neutrality promise to be interesting in the coming months.
Debates over neutrality promise to be interesting in the coming months.
Switzerland has a conscript army with 140k personnel, organised in 1 armoured division, 4 territorial divisions, and support.
Singapore also has a conscript army with a war time strength of 6 combined arms divisions.
Both are decently equipped, although there are always gaps.
Singapore also has a conscript army with a war time strength of 6 combined arms divisions.
Both are decently equipped, although there are always gaps.
July 28, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Switzerland has a conscript army with 140k personnel, organised in 1 armoured division, 4 territorial divisions, and support.
Singapore also has a conscript army with a war time strength of 6 combined arms divisions.
Both are decently equipped, although there are always gaps.
Singapore also has a conscript army with a war time strength of 6 combined arms divisions.
Both are decently equipped, although there are always gaps.
People crave living in countries with the same state capacity as a 30k municipality and social welfare reminiscent of late 90s Bulgaria, apparently.
Those statements really undermine the whole defence ramp-up that is needed, so it's quite infuriating to see Rutte repeating the same line.
Those statements really undermine the whole defence ramp-up that is needed, so it's quite infuriating to see Rutte repeating the same line.
June 25, 2025 at 4:53 PM
People crave living in countries with the same state capacity as a 30k municipality and social welfare reminiscent of late 90s Bulgaria, apparently.
Those statements really undermine the whole defence ramp-up that is needed, so it's quite infuriating to see Rutte repeating the same line.
Those statements really undermine the whole defence ramp-up that is needed, so it's quite infuriating to see Rutte repeating the same line.
Opposing defence and social cohesion works only if one thinks Wars are won by vehicles and weapons, and not the squishy feely humans manufacturing and using them.
June 24, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Opposing defence and social cohesion works only if one thinks Wars are won by vehicles and weapons, and not the squishy feely humans manufacturing and using them.
Swiss-germans eat pasta bolognese with apple sauce, so I'm half surprised you convinced one of us :')
May 30, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Swiss-germans eat pasta bolognese with apple sauce, so I'm half surprised you convinced one of us :')
Built-in path dependency keeps woke contingency out
May 21, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Built-in path dependency keeps woke contingency out
Oh well, the RAND stamp got me
May 11, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Oh well, the RAND stamp got me
Saw this on the other app. Don't know how credible the original source is, but accidentally targeting NC2 would definitely be the type of stuff getting people nervous.
May 11, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Saw this on the other app. Don't know how credible the original source is, but accidentally targeting NC2 would definitely be the type of stuff getting people nervous.
Continued Chinese recruitment of government employees. This may be an attempt to exploit the low-morale and uncertainty brought by personnel cuts.
The pattern is still the same: offer job position, which are actually linked to Chinese intel services.
28/
The pattern is still the same: offer job position, which are actually linked to Chinese intel services.
28/
US intelligence agency warns China is trying to recruit government employees
The U.S. warned on Tuesday that Chinese intelligence is using deceptive methods to target current and former U.S. government employees for recruitment.
www.reuters.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Continued Chinese recruitment of government employees. This may be an attempt to exploit the low-morale and uncertainty brought by personnel cuts.
The pattern is still the same: offer job position, which are actually linked to Chinese intel services.
28/
The pattern is still the same: offer job position, which are actually linked to Chinese intel services.
28/
Following the mass firing of federal employees, China is trying to recruit spies among them. This has been a concern raised early in Trump's move to cut working positions within his administration, and it has now materialised.
Recruitment is done via fake job positions.
27/
Recruitment is done via fake job positions.
27/
Exclusive: Secretive Chinese network tries to lure fired federal workers, research shows
A researcher identified a "network of fake consulting and headhunting firms."
www.reuters.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Following the mass firing of federal employees, China is trying to recruit spies among them. This has been a concern raised early in Trump's move to cut working positions within his administration, and it has now materialised.
Recruitment is done via fake job positions.
27/
Recruitment is done via fake job positions.
27/
Following a WH visit by Loomer (far-right conspiracy theorist), the NSA chief has been fired, as well as several members of NATSEC adviser's team.
This fuels concerns over the politicisation of US intelligence for allies, and raises questions about intel collaboration (even in FVYE).
26/
This fuels concerns over the politicisation of US intelligence for allies, and raises questions about intel collaboration (even in FVYE).
26/
A moment of serious concern for America’s Five Eyes partners:
“The director of the powerful wiretapping and cyberespionage service, the National Security Agency, was fired Thursday…The firings were advocated for by far-right activist Laura Loomer” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
“The director of the powerful wiretapping and cyberespionage service, the National Security Agency, was fired Thursday…The firings were advocated for by far-right activist Laura Loomer” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
National Security Agency chief ousted after far-right activist urged his removal
Gen. Timothy Haugh, the director of the NSA, the powerful wiretapping and cyberespionage service, was fired Thursday, according to U.S. officials.
www.washingtonpost.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Following a WH visit by Loomer (far-right conspiracy theorist), the NSA chief has been fired, as well as several members of NATSEC adviser's team.
This fuels concerns over the politicisation of US intelligence for allies, and raises questions about intel collaboration (even in FVYE).
26/
This fuels concerns over the politicisation of US intelligence for allies, and raises questions about intel collaboration (even in FVYE).
26/
2025 ATA brought significant policy changes:
1) Primacy of domestic threats (cartel)
2) Absence of climate change
3) Downplaying of Russia as a threat
Language related to Russia provides legitimacy to actions the Kremlin is conducting against Western countries.
25/
1) Primacy of domestic threats (cartel)
2) Absence of climate change
3) Downplaying of Russia as a threat
Language related to Russia provides legitimacy to actions the Kremlin is conducting against Western countries.
25/
US’s new ‘America First’ intelligence approach downplays Russia and ignores climate change
America’s intelligence bosses would not accept that ‘Signal-gate’ represented a breach of security.
theconversation.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:40 AM
2025 ATA brought significant policy changes:
1) Primacy of domestic threats (cartel)
2) Absence of climate change
3) Downplaying of Russia as a threat
Language related to Russia provides legitimacy to actions the Kremlin is conducting against Western countries.
25/
1) Primacy of domestic threats (cartel)
2) Absence of climate change
3) Downplaying of Russia as a threat
Language related to Russia provides legitimacy to actions the Kremlin is conducting against Western countries.
25/
Signal-gate. The Yemen group chat turned out to only be one of 20 groups, covering national security issues related to the War in Ukraine, negotiations with Russia, China and relations with the EU.
24/
24/
Waltz’s team set up at least 20 Signal group chats for crises across the world
It’s a more extensive use of the app than previously reported and sheds new light on how commonly the Trump administration’s national security team relies on Signal.
www.politico.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Signal-gate. The Yemen group chat turned out to only be one of 20 groups, covering national security issues related to the War in Ukraine, negotiations with Russia, China and relations with the EU.
24/
24/
Signal-gate. Some members of Waltz's team used Gmail to communicate between themselves. While Signal uses encryption, Gmail doesn't and is extremely easy to crack for competent foreign intel services.
This deepens doubts about the US ability to maintain proper operational security.
23/
This deepens doubts about the US ability to maintain proper operational security.
23/
National security adviser Michael Waltz reportedly conducted business via Gmail
Latest security flap again focuses scrutiny on Waltz after he earlier added journalist to Yemen war-planning chat
www.theguardian.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Signal-gate. Some members of Waltz's team used Gmail to communicate between themselves. While Signal uses encryption, Gmail doesn't and is extremely easy to crack for competent foreign intel services.
This deepens doubts about the US ability to maintain proper operational security.
23/
This deepens doubts about the US ability to maintain proper operational security.
23/
Signal-gate. Some of the leaked content may have compromised an Israeli human source in Yemen.
This may complicate intel-sharing from allies, worried about how the US will handle sensitive information, especially considering the dismissive responses following the incident.
22/
This may complicate intel-sharing from allies, worried about how the US will handle sensitive information, especially considering the dismissive responses following the incident.
22/
“Israel provided sensitive intelligence from a human source in Yemen on a key Houthi military operative targeted in an attack described by national security adviser Mike Waltz in an unclassified Signal chat” www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Exclusive | Israel Supplied Intelligence in Airstrike Discussed in Signal Chat, Officials say
A Houthi missile expert was tracked with the help of an Israeli human source in Yemen.
www.wsj.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:25 AM
Signal-gate. Some of the leaked content may have compromised an Israeli human source in Yemen.
This may complicate intel-sharing from allies, worried about how the US will handle sensitive information, especially considering the dismissive responses following the incident.
22/
This may complicate intel-sharing from allies, worried about how the US will handle sensitive information, especially considering the dismissive responses following the incident.
22/
Signal-gate. Following declaration from DNI, SECDEF and hand-waving from Trump, the full conversation has been published by the journalist.
Content includes targets, pattern-of-life surveillance, strike packages and timing, and contemptuous comments towards EU allies.
21/
Content includes targets, pattern-of-life surveillance, strike packages and timing, and contemptuous comments towards EU allies.
21/
Here Are the Attack Plans That Trump’s Advisers Shared on Signal
The administration has downplayed the importance of the text messages inadvertently sent to The Atlantic’s editor in chief.
www.theatlantic.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Signal-gate. Following declaration from DNI, SECDEF and hand-waving from Trump, the full conversation has been published by the journalist.
Content includes targets, pattern-of-life surveillance, strike packages and timing, and contemptuous comments towards EU allies.
21/
Content includes targets, pattern-of-life surveillance, strike packages and timing, and contemptuous comments towards EU allies.
21/
Signal-gate. SECDEF, DNI, VP and NATSEC adviser all used Signal to coordinate strikes on the Houthis, accidentally adding a journalist to the chat.
DNI and SECDEF denied that any classified info was shared on the group chat.
This raises question about data security and cyber risks.
20/
DNI and SECDEF denied that any classified info was shared on the group chat.
This raises question about data security and cyber risks.
20/
The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans
U.S. national-security leaders included me in a group chat about upcoming military strikes in Yemen. I didn’t think it could be real. Then the bombs started falling.
www.theatlantic.com
April 15, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Signal-gate. SECDEF, DNI, VP and NATSEC adviser all used Signal to coordinate strikes on the Houthis, accidentally adding a journalist to the chat.
DNI and SECDEF denied that any classified info was shared on the group chat.
This raises question about data security and cyber risks.
20/
DNI and SECDEF denied that any classified info was shared on the group chat.
This raises question about data security and cyber risks.
20/