Thanks for responding. Yougov apply likelihood to vote weighting for other VI questions but not for #indyref. So reported D/K, would not vote & refused tends to be higher than other pollsters.
All other pollsters apply some sort of turnout weighting. Chart shows pollster averages over recent years.

Is there any particular reason @dylandifford.bsky.social why Yougov don’t apply voting/ turnout likelihood weighting to the #Indyref questions?

For this reason it’s always an outlier with high levels of d/k and very odd figures for the young.

Remember it's STV, so the Green vote will mostly get transferred. Hopefully all the progressive votes will roll together after transfers to keep Reform out. Tories are toast!

Not so much that, as the Did not vote % pegged at November 2022 level (21%). Also 2014 vote weighting applied (boosts No) and no likelihood to vote weighting applied. All round a real mess.

Agree, but hold off till after May plz

Who could have predicted that… ?
But, even so, if this is true they’ve fucked up the timing. It would need to be an actual surprise to work. But it seems Starmer’s people can’t stop leaking, even when it harms them. They’re a sinking ship.

bsky.app/profile/indy...

Well, the only way is up for the trench-coaters…
I think Zarah should maybe speak to Zack…

bsky.app/profile/indy...

I wonder what credit rating the rumpUK will get post-independence 😂 ?

Self-immolation would be quicker than this slow-motion death by 1,000 really poorly thought-through policy decisions.

Okay, but Scotland gets a credit rating because it has a devolved Government. I’m not sure what your point is?
E.g Scotland has a high rate of FDI, lower unemployment, a better educated workforce, a strong skills system, excellent HEIs, better and cheaper infrastructure (ironically energy aside).

Middlesborough is also in the UK. Despite levelling up and having a high profile Tory mayor it continues to have the highest levels of deprivation anywhere in the UK.

c) Invest in world class infrastructure