Ina Holst-Pedersen Kvam
@inahpkvam.bsky.social
Researcher at Norwegian Defence University College / Royal Norwegian Naval Academy. Specialising on Russian military and maritime strategy. All views my own
Chronicle in today’s Aftenposten, after NUPIs Lars Gresvik erroneously argued how “premature conclusions of underwater sabotage” in the Baltic Sea only breeds unnecessary fear—with decreased cable security as consequence. An unreasonable logic of course, undermining the Russian seabed warfare threat
April 4, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Chronicle in today’s Aftenposten, after NUPIs Lars Gresvik erroneously argued how “premature conclusions of underwater sabotage” in the Baltic Sea only breeds unnecessary fear—with decreased cable security as consequence. An unreasonable logic of course, undermining the Russian seabed warfare threat
The corvettes deployed from Vladivostok on a long-distance voyage to the Asia-Pacific region in early February, conducting several drills along the way—incl "Komodo", exercising disaster relief and humanitarian operations off the coast of Bali alongside, amongst others, the US and Australian Navy
March 10, 2025 at 2:43 PM
The corvettes deployed from Vladivostok on a long-distance voyage to the Asia-Pacific region in early February, conducting several drills along the way—incl "Komodo", exercising disaster relief and humanitarian operations off the coast of Bali alongside, amongst others, the US and Australian Navy
From the Russian Navy, the Pacific Fleet's newest Steregushchiy class corvettes—Rezkiy and Aldar Tsydenzhapov, commissioned in Sep 2023 and Dec 2020 respectively—will participate alongside tanker Pechenga.
March 10, 2025 at 2:43 PM
From the Russian Navy, the Pacific Fleet's newest Steregushchiy class corvettes—Rezkiy and Aldar Tsydenzhapov, commissioned in Sep 2023 and Dec 2020 respectively—will participate alongside tanker Pechenga.
While the US is planning a complete stop in European exercise participation by next year, the "Axis" powers are strengthening ties and enhancing interoperability. Later this month, Iran's annual maritime security exercise is set to kick off in the Gulf of Oman with Chinese and Russian warships
March 10, 2025 at 2:43 PM
While the US is planning a complete stop in European exercise participation by next year, the "Axis" powers are strengthening ties and enhancing interoperability. Later this month, Iran's annual maritime security exercise is set to kick off in the Gulf of Oman with Chinese and Russian warships
“Tonight, on The Real Housewives of DC…”
Musk and Rubio take on the Polish MFA, yet only succeed in accidentally admitting that Poland and other neighbouring nations are—in all likelihood—indeed next on the Kremlin’s imperialist war roster if Ukraine falls.
Can’t make this stuff up.
Musk and Rubio take on the Polish MFA, yet only succeed in accidentally admitting that Poland and other neighbouring nations are—in all likelihood—indeed next on the Kremlin’s imperialist war roster if Ukraine falls.
Can’t make this stuff up.
March 9, 2025 at 6:54 PM
“Tonight, on The Real Housewives of DC…”
Musk and Rubio take on the Polish MFA, yet only succeed in accidentally admitting that Poland and other neighbouring nations are—in all likelihood—indeed next on the Kremlin’s imperialist war roster if Ukraine falls.
Can’t make this stuff up.
Musk and Rubio take on the Polish MFA, yet only succeed in accidentally admitting that Poland and other neighbouring nations are—in all likelihood—indeed next on the Kremlin’s imperialist war roster if Ukraine falls.
Can’t make this stuff up.
Yet if shit hits the fan, our personnel operating on first name basis will have little mitigating effects on isolationist and bridge-burning orders. Indeed, if sporadic protests like these threaten bilateral defence ties through simple freedom of speech, perhaps they weren't as robust to begin with?
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Yet if shit hits the fan, our personnel operating on first name basis will have little mitigating effects on isolationist and bridge-burning orders. Indeed, if sporadic protests like these threaten bilateral defence ties through simple freedom of speech, perhaps they weren't as robust to begin with?
A North Atlantic nuclear threat could also include GUGI submarines carrying Poseidon, the so-called "doomsday torpedo", the detonation of which will supposedly create "radioactive tsunamis". While Poseidon's hardly operational as of yet, this is ofc fabricated scaremongering x.com/InaHPKvam/st...
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
A North Atlantic nuclear threat could also include GUGI submarines carrying Poseidon, the so-called "doomsday torpedo", the detonation of which will supposedly create "radioactive tsunamis". While Poseidon's hardly operational as of yet, this is ofc fabricated scaremongering x.com/InaHPKvam/st...
Neutralising carrier groups before they position themselves within range of Kola and other strategic centres of gravity is equally important. It's for this mission Russian military science prescribes Yasen's Tsirkon hypersonic missiles the most offensive utility when equipped with nuclear warheads
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Neutralising carrier groups before they position themselves within range of Kola and other strategic centres of gravity is equally important. It's for this mission Russian military science prescribes Yasen's Tsirkon hypersonic missiles the most offensive utility when equipped with nuclear warheads
Russia's nuclear attack submarines are another matter. Its most feared variant, the Yasen class SSGN, may indeed carry tactical nuclear weapons (NSNW). But attacking strategic infrastructure and civilian population centres from the North Atlantic is not their primary mission. Strategic ASW is.
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Russia's nuclear attack submarines are another matter. Its most feared variant, the Yasen class SSGN, may indeed carry tactical nuclear weapons (NSNW). But attacking strategic infrastructure and civilian population centres from the North Atlantic is not their primary mission. Strategic ASW is.
Their Delta IV and Borei SSBN successors operate with a similar mission. US maritime strategy is therefore still largely assumed tailored to the primary objective akin to the Cold War of isolating them east of the Bear Gap in a decisive and overwhelming power projection campaign by air, sea and land
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Their Delta IV and Borei SSBN successors operate with a similar mission. US maritime strategy is therefore still largely assumed tailored to the primary objective akin to the Cold War of isolating them east of the Bear Gap in a decisive and overwhelming power projection campaign by air, sea and land
From there, their threat of a possible third strike would dictate ensuing peace negations. To the Kremlin, its SSBN fleet thus became a decisive 'revenge weapon', designed to primarily secure regime survival in large-scale war by ultimately threatening its termination on terms favourable to Russia.
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
From there, their threat of a possible third strike would dictate ensuing peace negations. To the Kremlin, its SSBN fleet thus became a decisive 'revenge weapon', designed to primarily secure regime survival in large-scale war by ultimately threatening its termination on terms favourable to Russia.
There, they would operate from so-called 'bastions' beneath the Arctic ice cap. The combination of Delta and Typhoon's improved survivability with simultaneous capability increases in newer variants of SLBMs prescribed them as such a much greater role in the Kremlin's nuclear deterrence strategy.
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
There, they would operate from so-called 'bastions' beneath the Arctic ice cap. The combination of Delta and Typhoon's improved survivability with simultaneous capability increases in newer variants of SLBMs prescribed them as such a much greater role in the Kremlin's nuclear deterrence strategy.
However, after commissioning the Delta class in 1973 and Typhoon class in 1981, respectively equipped with SS-N-8/18 and SS-N-20 of intercontinental range, the Kremlin could for the first time concentrate its growing SSBN fleet as a 'strategic reserve' in safer waters outside the Kola Peninsula
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
However, after commissioning the Delta class in 1973 and Typhoon class in 1981, respectively equipped with SS-N-8/18 and SS-N-20 of intercontinental range, the Kremlin could for the first time concentrate its growing SSBN fleet as a 'strategic reserve' in safer waters outside the Kola Peninsula
Given the characteristics of its sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) - the SS-N-6 Serb with nominal range between 2400-3000km - Yankee's patrol areas were necessarily sufficiently forward in the Atlantic in order to enable a pre-emptive first strike with reduced missile flight times
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Given the characteristics of its sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) - the SS-N-6 Serb with nominal range between 2400-3000km - Yankee's patrol areas were necessarily sufficiently forward in the Atlantic in order to enable a pre-emptive first strike with reduced missile flight times
Yankee is regarded Russia's first true SSBN, and its capability increases from former Hotel and Golf class were at the time substantial - primarily by virtue of increased firepower per hull (from x3 to x16 missile silos with MIRV warheads) and the ability to launch while submerged to evade detection
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Yankee is regarded Russia's first true SSBN, and its capability increases from former Hotel and Golf class were at the time substantial - primarily by virtue of increased firepower per hull (from x3 to x16 missile silos with MIRV warheads) and the ability to launch while submerged to evade detection
In the discussion of how 'America First' might affect US-Norwegian defence cooperation along NATO's northern flank moving forward, a credible threat assessment is an absolute minimum. Instead, overly simplified evaluations of the nature and character of the Russian threat dominate discourse 🧵
March 3, 2025 at 9:20 AM
In the discussion of how 'America First' might affect US-Norwegian defence cooperation along NATO's northern flank moving forward, a credible threat assessment is an absolute minimum. Instead, overly simplified evaluations of the nature and character of the Russian threat dominate discourse 🧵
Ukrainian successes at sea are impressive. Yet, as long as the Russian Navy continues to threaten maritime trade while projecting power ashore in support of the Kremlin's SODCIT campaign, the battle of the Black Sea is not won.
www-foreignaffairs-com.fhs.idm.oclc.org/ukraine/ukra...
www-foreignaffairs-com.fhs.idm.oclc.org/ukraine/ukra...
February 16, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Ukrainian successes at sea are impressive. Yet, as long as the Russian Navy continues to threaten maritime trade while projecting power ashore in support of the Kremlin's SODCIT campaign, the battle of the Black Sea is not won.
www-foreignaffairs-com.fhs.idm.oclc.org/ukraine/ukra...
www-foreignaffairs-com.fhs.idm.oclc.org/ukraine/ukra...
Either way, Aleppo has been subject to Russian airstrikes on several occasions since the height of the Syrian campaign, though only sporadically and in no way near 2016-levels. Confer another figure from RAND, and eg. this weekly conflict summary from April 21;
www.cartercenter.org/resources/pd...
www.cartercenter.org/resources/pd...
November 30, 2024 at 10:09 PM
Either way, Aleppo has been subject to Russian airstrikes on several occasions since the height of the Syrian campaign, though only sporadically and in no way near 2016-levels. Confer another figure from RAND, and eg. this weekly conflict summary from April 21;
www.cartercenter.org/resources/pd...
www.cartercenter.org/resources/pd...
The Su-34 is one of VKS’ newest platforms, first combat tested in precisely Syria. It gradually assumed a larger strike role vis-a-vis the Fencer-D bomber workhorse, and carries a range of PGMs, laser-guided missiles and KAB variants. Also it can park anywhere when technically unavailable
November 30, 2024 at 10:09 PM
The Su-34 is one of VKS’ newest platforms, first combat tested in precisely Syria. It gradually assumed a larger strike role vis-a-vis the Fencer-D bomber workhorse, and carries a range of PGMs, laser-guided missiles and KAB variants. Also it can park anywhere when technically unavailable
Though unverified, the Friday attack was supposedly carried out by Fullbacks using the KAB-500 GLONASS satellite-guided bomb, perhaps with UMPK kits improving their precision as fielded in Ukraine
November 30, 2024 at 10:09 PM
Though unverified, the Friday attack was supposedly carried out by Fullbacks using the KAB-500 GLONASS satellite-guided bomb, perhaps with UMPK kits improving their precision as fielded in Ukraine
👇 Reports like these, lacking sufficient nuances, may therefore mislead. While Syria’s largest city have remained in govt control since the Battle of Aleppo in 2016, Russian airstrikes have continued to target its outskirts and provinces—most notably medical facilities and other civ infrastructure
November 30, 2024 at 10:09 PM
👇 Reports like these, lacking sufficient nuances, may therefore mislead. While Syria’s largest city have remained in govt control since the Battle of Aleppo in 2016, Russian airstrikes have continued to target its outskirts and provinces—most notably medical facilities and other civ infrastructure
While Putin ordered partial withdrawal of Russian troops in 2016 following its counter-opposition campaign and again after declaring ‘total victory’ over ISIS in 2017, missile attacks only downscaled as the war de-escalated. Figure from RAND's excellent campaign report,
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
November 30, 2024 at 10:09 PM
While Putin ordered partial withdrawal of Russian troops in 2016 following its counter-opposition campaign and again after declaring ‘total victory’ over ISIS in 2017, missile attacks only downscaled as the war de-escalated. Figure from RAND's excellent campaign report,
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
For reference, the 'increase' accounts for only 1,75 % of the unprecedented 2000 bn NOK surge in oil and gas revenue following the Russian reinvasion of Ukraine in 2022. Norwegian donations rank 12th by share of GDP, allocating only 0,6 %. In other words, the petroleum giant that could, but wouldn't
November 28, 2024 at 10:13 PM
For reference, the 'increase' accounts for only 1,75 % of the unprecedented 2000 bn NOK surge in oil and gas revenue following the Russian reinvasion of Ukraine in 2022. Norwegian donations rank 12th by share of GDP, allocating only 0,6 %. In other words, the petroleum giant that could, but wouldn't
Just a reminder that any argument supporting a premature 'peace' deal, as such invalidating Ukraine's existential fight against wicked Russian tyranny, only legitimises the latter's utter disdain for human life—the oppressive terrestrial appetite of which is not secluded to the Ukrainian nationstate
November 26, 2024 at 11:10 AM
Just a reminder that any argument supporting a premature 'peace' deal, as such invalidating Ukraine's existential fight against wicked Russian tyranny, only legitimises the latter's utter disdain for human life—the oppressive terrestrial appetite of which is not secluded to the Ukrainian nationstate
