3. The Govt has also confirmed it will no longer adjust th aid budget based on GNI -

So, if GDP/ national income rises more quickly than expected, the aid budget will not; and if it falls then the aid budget will stay flat.

Some stability at least.

3) The UK's commitment to the World Bank last November wasn't historically generous and should remain a priority.

Even as a share of the reduced aid budget in 2027, it's still under 8% of ODA, in line with previous shares

Even the PM instinctively understands that aid should be spent overseas - his official statement on the cut refers to "Overseas Development Assistance' (usually "Official" Devt Assistance).

Let's hope he stops counting the £4-5bn spent in the UK as aid.

www.gov.uk/government/n...

3. What's more, the UK's country programmes have become too small to achieve real change.

The UK's largest programmes are one-fifth the size of Germany's.

2. It isn't just Africa - the UK's aid budget (even the part spent abroad) is much-less focussed on the poorest countries.

Under half went to the Least Developed Countries in 2023 - its lowest level in 15 years

1. Two thirds of those in extreme poverty live in Africa. But the UK's aid budget is no longer focussed there.

The aid budget has suffered a 14% cut - but Africa's budget has been cut by 65%.

20 years ago this week Nelson Mandela told a UK audience that poverty was man-made and could be eradicated.

Most think aid should tackle poverty - but with the US stepping back - is the UK actually focussed on that goal? Does it still care?

A 5-point thread on our new @cgdev.org blog & analysis:

3. If the UK had reported these amounts, this is what it would have looked like.

In 1999, the costs would have been even higher - over £5bn in today's terms - but actually the UK reported barely any refugee costs before 2014 (and none in 1999).

1. Current levels of asylum seekers are not unusual - the current spike is similar to the one at the start of the century

"Foreign-aid fiddle"

Great to see the @economist.com highlight the UK's misuse use of aid (inc some of our @cgdev.org work w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social )

economist.com/britain/2024...

My take on the #COP29 climate finance goal (#NCQG); based on our model.

It will require barely any additional effort from providers and creates a greater risk of diverting funds from existing development finance

@fionaharvey.bsky.social @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social @kenzabryan.bsky.social

2. The latest text suggests that all climate outflows from MDBs would be counted.

In 2022, that adds $10bn to the climate finance total, ($126bn vs $116bn reported by OECD).

In 2035, we estimate that could add over $20bn and increase baseline climate finance to some $240bn.

Also, the current text implies a broader definition than now: 'private' - rather than 'mobilised private'

So, $250bn would be even less ambitious.