Ian Mitchell
@ianmitchell1.bsky.social
Economist working on international development, climate and trade
Co-Director, Europe programme at the Center for Global Development.
Co-Director, Europe programme at the Center for Global Development.
We're hiring!
We're after a recent graduate with quant and comms skills to work with me on ideas for the UK's development policy; and on benchmarking development performance.
You need to have the right to work in the UK
Full details here:
centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.com/apply/gIODpv...
We're after a recent graduate with quant and comms skills to work with me on ideas for the UK's development policy; and on benchmarking development performance.
You need to have the right to work in the UK
Full details here:
centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.com/apply/gIODpv...
Research Assistant - UK and Development - Center for Global Development - Career Page
Apply to Research Assistant - UK and Development at Center for Global Development in London, London, United Kingdom.
centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.com
July 17, 2025 at 4:27 PM
We're hiring!
We're after a recent graduate with quant and comms skills to work with me on ideas for the UK's development policy; and on benchmarking development performance.
You need to have the right to work in the UK
Full details here:
centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.com/apply/gIODpv...
We're after a recent graduate with quant and comms skills to work with me on ideas for the UK's development policy; and on benchmarking development performance.
You need to have the right to work in the UK
Full details here:
centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.com/apply/gIODpv...
New survey: Brits think that the UK's new aid budget is too low.
One of many interesting findings in the BFPG survey.
One of many interesting findings in the BFPG survey.
10. Only 18% of Britons support spending 0.7% of GNI or more on international development. However, more Britons believe the UK’s aid spend target should be higher than 0.3% of GNI (38%) than believe it should be lower (34%), suggesting some room to increase spending about 0.3%.
July 17, 2025 at 11:08 AM
New survey: Brits think that the UK's new aid budget is too low.
One of many interesting findings in the BFPG survey.
One of many interesting findings in the BFPG survey.
The UK Government needs to cut £3bn from its aid budget.
But can it also fulfill commitments on greater multilateralism, targeting poverty, and ensuring impact?
@samhugh3s.bsky.social and I set three tests on aid allocation that would signify the 'change' promised.
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-uk-...
But can it also fulfill commitments on greater multilateralism, targeting poverty, and ensuring impact?
@samhugh3s.bsky.social and I set three tests on aid allocation that would signify the 'change' promised.
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-uk-...
How the UK Should Focus Its Aid in 2026: Three Tests to Help Ministers Deliver on Commitments and Maximise Impact
The FCDO must cut nearly £3 billion from its aid budget by 2027. Ian Mitchell and Sam Hughes set out three tests to protect impact.
www.cgdev.org
July 15, 2025 at 4:18 PM
The UK Government needs to cut £3bn from its aid budget.
But can it also fulfill commitments on greater multilateralism, targeting poverty, and ensuring impact?
@samhugh3s.bsky.social and I set three tests on aid allocation that would signify the 'change' promised.
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-uk-...
But can it also fulfill commitments on greater multilateralism, targeting poverty, and ensuring impact?
@samhugh3s.bsky.social and I set three tests on aid allocation that would signify the 'change' promised.
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-uk-...
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
Very rough and ready estimate of the most affected countries by the new tariffs, apologies for errors. Sources in thread. Cambodia, Vietnam, Nicaragua Guyana all *highly* dependent on exports to US (= to 25%+ GNI), facing tariffs 18-38%.
April 2, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Very rough and ready estimate of the most affected countries by the new tariffs, apologies for errors. Sources in thread. Cambodia, Vietnam, Nicaragua Guyana all *highly* dependent on exports to US (= to 25%+ GNI), facing tariffs 18-38%.
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
New blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me on USAID cuts by country and updated (again) sectoral cuts based on the list that went to Congress today.
Ukraine $1.4bn cut. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania >$200m
Ukraine $1.4bn cut. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania >$200m
March 26, 2025 at 8:28 PM
New blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me on USAID cuts by country and updated (again) sectoral cuts based on the list that went to Congress today.
Ukraine $1.4bn cut. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania >$200m
Ukraine $1.4bn cut. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania >$200m
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
Make America Great Again by slashing basic health services in the Congo.
Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.
Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.
New blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me on USAID cuts by country and updated (again) sectoral cuts based on the list that went to Congress today.
Ukraine $1.4bn cut. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania >$200m
Ukraine $1.4bn cut. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania >$200m
March 27, 2025 at 12:08 AM
Make America Great Again by slashing basic health services in the Congo.
Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.
Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.
Today's spring statement quietly revealed that the vast majority of the aid cut the PM announced for 2027 will actually happen in 2026.
In fact, 2026/27 will see a 27% cut. That is steeper than the Boris Johnson aid cut in 2021.
A short thread on the figures:
In fact, 2026/27 will see a 27% cut. That is steeper than the Boris Johnson aid cut in 2021.
A short thread on the figures:
March 26, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Today's spring statement quietly revealed that the vast majority of the aid cut the PM announced for 2027 will actually happen in 2026.
In fact, 2026/27 will see a 27% cut. That is steeper than the Boris Johnson aid cut in 2021.
A short thread on the figures:
In fact, 2026/27 will see a 27% cut. That is steeper than the Boris Johnson aid cut in 2021.
A short thread on the figures:
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
We are delighted to announce that @helenmiller.bsky.social has been appointed as the next IFS Director, following on from @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social in July 2025.
Find out more:
Find out more:
Helen Miller appointed as new Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies | Institute for Fiscal Studies
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) is delighted to announce that Helen Miller has been appointed as its next Director.
ifs.org.uk
March 20, 2025 at 10:02 AM
We are delighted to announce that @helenmiller.bsky.social has been appointed as the next IFS Director, following on from @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social in July 2025.
Find out more:
Find out more:
Fascinating this - do Chinese contractors delivering World Bank projects achieve worse outcomes than others?
Answer: no.
[US and UK contractors also perform around the average but Australian and French ones do less well]
Answer: no.
[US and UK contractors also perform around the average but Australian and French ones do less well]
Paper (with Zack Gehan & Songtao Duan) and blog on Chinese Contractors & Development Project Quality. We take World Bank data on contractors working on projects and match it to project outcome data.
Graph below: country of main contract supplier versus project outcome rating.
Graph below: country of main contract supplier versus project outcome rating.
March 19, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Fascinating this - do Chinese contractors delivering World Bank projects achieve worse outcomes than others?
Answer: no.
[US and UK contractors also perform around the average but Australian and French ones do less well]
Answer: no.
[US and UK contractors also perform around the average but Australian and French ones do less well]
New @cgdev.org blog from me on the UK aid cut in 2027 as HM Treasury finalise budgets. Just three points:
1) Many are saying the cut needs a 'glidepath'.
But this is misleading - glidepaths are supposed to soften cuts. But in this case, it just means making cuts a year sooner.
1) Many are saying the cut needs a 'glidepath'.
But this is misleading - glidepaths are supposed to soften cuts. But in this case, it just means making cuts a year sooner.
March 13, 2025 at 2:59 PM
New @cgdev.org blog from me on the UK aid cut in 2027 as HM Treasury finalise budgets. Just three points:
1) Many are saying the cut needs a 'glidepath'.
But this is misleading - glidepaths are supposed to soften cuts. But in this case, it just means making cuts a year sooner.
1) Many are saying the cut needs a 'glidepath'.
But this is misleading - glidepaths are supposed to soften cuts. But in this case, it just means making cuts a year sooner.
Incredibly clear thread on the US cuts, and the responsibility Secretary Rubio bears for them
The resulting death toll is an outcome that Secretary Rubio, with his considerable understanding of the power of US foreign assistance to save lives, will have understood was an inevitable result of the pause, failed waivers, and contract terminations.
www.cgdev.org/blog/dear-se...
www.cgdev.org/blog/dear-se...
Dear Secretary Rubio: You Are Right, Foreign Assistance Works. Please Resume It.
Dear Secretary Rubio: There have been few more eloquent advocates for foreign assistance than you. And I believe the case you make for US aid is backed up by considerable empirical evidence. As you ha...
www.cgdev.org
March 3, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Incredibly clear thread on the US cuts, and the responsibility Secretary Rubio bears for them
At last some courage and leadership from someone in Labour on international development
A mid-sized economic power like the UK cannot spend just 0.3% of income on international issues.
A mid-sized economic power like the UK cannot spend just 0.3% of income on international issues.
February 28, 2025 at 12:58 PM
At last some courage and leadership from someone in Labour on international development
A mid-sized economic power like the UK cannot spend just 0.3% of income on international issues.
A mid-sized economic power like the UK cannot spend just 0.3% of income on international issues.
"Sir Keir Starmer is to take UK overseas aid to its lowest level as a percentage of national income since records began"
Great to see the @theguardian.com lead with our @cgdev.org analysis.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Great to see the @theguardian.com lead with our @cgdev.org analysis.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Keir Starmer to carry out largest cut to UK overseas aid in history
NGOs accuse prime minister of following US by accepting ‘false choice’ of cutting aid to fund defence
www.theguardian.com
February 28, 2025 at 11:12 AM
"Sir Keir Starmer is to take UK overseas aid to its lowest level as a percentage of national income since records began"
Great to see the @theguardian.com lead with our @cgdev.org analysis.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Great to see the @theguardian.com lead with our @cgdev.org analysis.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Even the PM instinctively understands that aid should be spent overseas - his official statement on the cut refers to "Overseas Development Assistance' (usually "Official" Devt Assistance).
Let's hope he stops counting the £4-5bn spent in the UK as aid.
www.gov.uk/government/n...
Let's hope he stops counting the £4-5bn spent in the UK as aid.
www.gov.uk/government/n...
February 25, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Even the PM instinctively understands that aid should be spent overseas - his official statement on the cut refers to "Overseas Development Assistance' (usually "Official" Devt Assistance).
Let's hope he stops counting the £4-5bn spent in the UK as aid.
www.gov.uk/government/n...
Let's hope he stops counting the £4-5bn spent in the UK as aid.
www.gov.uk/government/n...
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer just cut the UK aid budget from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3% in 2027 to fund increases in defence spending.
He says he’s making tough choices, but cutting funding for the world’s poorest people is the easiest—and cruellest—choice he could make (1/4)
He says he’s making tough choices, but cutting funding for the world’s poorest people is the easiest—and cruellest—choice he could make (1/4)
February 25, 2025 at 2:18 PM
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer just cut the UK aid budget from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3% in 2027 to fund increases in defence spending.
He says he’s making tough choices, but cutting funding for the world’s poorest people is the easiest—and cruellest—choice he could make (1/4)
He says he’s making tough choices, but cutting funding for the world’s poorest people is the easiest—and cruellest—choice he could make (1/4)
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
NEW: @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social find a 1 year US aid freeze could trigger an economic shock of 1% of GNI in 23 economies—with 8 countries, incl. South Sudan, Somalia & Ethiopia, facing a devastating 3%+ hit.
Which other countries could step up?
www.cgdev.org/blog/which-c...
Which other countries could step up?
www.cgdev.org/blog/which-c...
Which Countries Are Most Exposed to US Aid Cuts; And What Other Providers Can Do
While it is still unclear how long the current freeze on US foreign aid will last, and when and where it might resume, it seems the US, under the second Trump administration, may be ready to abandon i...
www.cgdev.org
February 11, 2025 at 12:01 PM
NEW: @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social find a 1 year US aid freeze could trigger an economic shock of 1% of GNI in 23 economies—with 8 countries, incl. South Sudan, Somalia & Ethiopia, facing a devastating 3%+ hit.
Which other countries could step up?
www.cgdev.org/blog/which-c...
Which other countries could step up?
www.cgdev.org/blog/which-c...
20 years ago this week Nelson Mandela told a UK audience that poverty was man-made and could be eradicated.
Most think aid should tackle poverty - but with the US stepping back - is the UK actually focussed on that goal? Does it still care?
A 5-point thread on our new @cgdev.org blog & analysis:
Most think aid should tackle poverty - but with the US stepping back - is the UK actually focussed on that goal? Does it still care?
A 5-point thread on our new @cgdev.org blog & analysis:
February 7, 2025 at 2:02 PM
20 years ago this week Nelson Mandela told a UK audience that poverty was man-made and could be eradicated.
Most think aid should tackle poverty - but with the US stepping back - is the UK actually focussed on that goal? Does it still care?
A 5-point thread on our new @cgdev.org blog & analysis:
Most think aid should tackle poverty - but with the US stepping back - is the UK actually focussed on that goal? Does it still care?
A 5-point thread on our new @cgdev.org blog & analysis:
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
Here is United States law regarding the President's attempts to close our development assistance agency in secret over the weekend.
It is illegal. No ambiguity.
Americans decide with their actions, today, if the US is a country of laws or—something else.
—> crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
It is illegal. No ambiguity.
Americans decide with their actions, today, if the US is a country of laws or—something else.
—> crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
February 4, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Here is United States law regarding the President's attempts to close our development assistance agency in secret over the weekend.
It is illegal. No ambiguity.
Americans decide with their actions, today, if the US is a country of laws or—something else.
—> crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
It is illegal. No ambiguity.
Americans decide with their actions, today, if the US is a country of laws or—something else.
—> crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
The closing panel at #OxCSAE2025 will be 'Evidence-based Policy: Towards an Improved Research-policy Equilibrium in Africa'
🗣️@scepticalranil.bsky.social, Nompumelelo Nyathi-Mohohlwane, Miriam Laker, Justice Tei Mensah, @olihanney.bsky.social
Find out more cvent.me/vbN029
Register cvent.me/grRQBN
🗣️@scepticalranil.bsky.social, Nompumelelo Nyathi-Mohohlwane, Miriam Laker, Justice Tei Mensah, @olihanney.bsky.social
Find out more cvent.me/vbN029
Register cvent.me/grRQBN
February 4, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The closing panel at #OxCSAE2025 will be 'Evidence-based Policy: Towards an Improved Research-policy Equilibrium in Africa'
🗣️@scepticalranil.bsky.social, Nompumelelo Nyathi-Mohohlwane, Miriam Laker, Justice Tei Mensah, @olihanney.bsky.social
Find out more cvent.me/vbN029
Register cvent.me/grRQBN
🗣️@scepticalranil.bsky.social, Nompumelelo Nyathi-Mohohlwane, Miriam Laker, Justice Tei Mensah, @olihanney.bsky.social
Find out more cvent.me/vbN029
Register cvent.me/grRQBN
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
The world's wealthiest man harming the world's poorest people. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Senior USAid officials put on leave after denying access to Musk’s Doge team
After standoff, Doge members gained control over access system, letting them lock out workers and read emails
www.theguardian.com
February 3, 2025 at 8:20 AM
The world's wealthiest man harming the world's poorest people. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Rumours that USAID is being eliminated or integrated.
Having the State Department or Ministry of Foreign affairs be responsible for aid is what small counties do, not global superpowers.
Having the State Department or Ministry of Foreign affairs be responsible for aid is what small counties do, not global superpowers.
February 1, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Rumours that USAID is being eliminated or integrated.
Having the State Department or Ministry of Foreign affairs be responsible for aid is what small counties do, not global superpowers.
Having the State Department or Ministry of Foreign affairs be responsible for aid is what small counties do, not global superpowers.
Very good piece this from Rachel with practical suggestions for a smart US aid review on advancing American interests.
The last week has been v bad for US foreign assistance -- and that's bad for America.
But there's still time for Secretary Rubio--who has a track record of supporting smart aid--to avert looming disaster and enact a *real* (and needed!) review and reform. Here's how:
www.cgdev.org/blog/changin...
But there's still time for Secretary Rubio--who has a track record of supporting smart aid--to avert looming disaster and enact a *real* (and needed!) review and reform. Here's how:
www.cgdev.org/blog/changin...
Changing Course to a Good-Faith Aid Review: How Four Principles Could Advance the American Interest and Save Lives
Making the case for how to conduct a good-faith, smart aid review in service of the administration’s goals and the American people.
www.cgdev.org
January 30, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Very good piece this from Rachel with practical suggestions for a smart US aid review on advancing American interests.
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
The UK remains one of the largest ever recipients of US aid, thanks to massive post-WWII support.🇺🇸🇬🇧
Roman Napoli, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social reflect on the UK-US relationship & draw out lessons on how foreign assistance can help build allies ⬇
www.cgdev.org/blog/special...
Roman Napoli, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social reflect on the UK-US relationship & draw out lessons on how foreign assistance can help build allies ⬇
www.cgdev.org/blog/special...
The Special Relationship: A Brief History of US Aid to the UK
As President Trump takes office, we examine the US approach to international partnerships, look at the foundations of the so-called “special relationship” between the US and the UK, and undertake new ...
www.cgdev.org
January 22, 2025 at 11:26 PM
The UK remains one of the largest ever recipients of US aid, thanks to massive post-WWII support.🇺🇸🇬🇧
Roman Napoli, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social reflect on the UK-US relationship & draw out lessons on how foreign assistance can help build allies ⬇
www.cgdev.org/blog/special...
Roman Napoli, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social reflect on the UK-US relationship & draw out lessons on how foreign assistance can help build allies ⬇
www.cgdev.org/blog/special...
Reposted by Ian Mitchell
Our new blog highlights how abnormal is the current Gov's policy of using the limited foreign aid budget to fund support for asylum seekers within the UK.
Before 2014, nearly no UK asylum seeker support was funded via aid, even when it faced spikes in applicants similar to today's (eg around 2000).
Before 2014, nearly no UK asylum seeker support was funded via aid, even when it faced spikes in applicants similar to today's (eg around 2000).
Nearly 30% of UK aid is spent on refugees in the UK.
But what happened in past refugee spikes?
We find if Blair & Brown had taken the current approach, the UK would have spent zero on overseas aid in some years.
A 🧵 on new @cgdev.org analysis w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social:
But what happened in past refugee spikes?
We find if Blair & Brown had taken the current approach, the UK would have spent zero on overseas aid in some years.
A 🧵 on new @cgdev.org analysis w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social:
January 9, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Our new blog highlights how abnormal is the current Gov's policy of using the limited foreign aid budget to fund support for asylum seekers within the UK.
Before 2014, nearly no UK asylum seeker support was funded via aid, even when it faced spikes in applicants similar to today's (eg around 2000).
Before 2014, nearly no UK asylum seeker support was funded via aid, even when it faced spikes in applicants similar to today's (eg around 2000).
Nearly 30% of UK aid is spent on refugees in the UK.
But what happened in past refugee spikes?
We find if Blair & Brown had taken the current approach, the UK would have spent zero on overseas aid in some years.
A 🧵 on new @cgdev.org analysis w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social:
But what happened in past refugee spikes?
We find if Blair & Brown had taken the current approach, the UK would have spent zero on overseas aid in some years.
A 🧵 on new @cgdev.org analysis w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social:
January 8, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Nearly 30% of UK aid is spent on refugees in the UK.
But what happened in past refugee spikes?
We find if Blair & Brown had taken the current approach, the UK would have spent zero on overseas aid in some years.
A 🧵 on new @cgdev.org analysis w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social:
But what happened in past refugee spikes?
We find if Blair & Brown had taken the current approach, the UK would have spent zero on overseas aid in some years.
A 🧵 on new @cgdev.org analysis w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social: