Humane Stats
@hyperon.bsky.social
Please break out education vs healthcare, if you can. I understand the historical reasons they are lumped together, but they are very different industries these days, with potentially very different trajectories.
February 11, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Please break out education vs healthcare, if you can. I understand the historical reasons they are lumped together, but they are very different industries these days, with potentially very different trajectories.
It's not enough to vote right. What are you doing to prevent your fellow Democrats from supporting the meager reforms proposed by Schumer?
January 30, 2026 at 11:51 PM
It's not enough to vote right. What are you doing to prevent your fellow Democrats from supporting the meager reforms proposed by Schumer?
And "Abolish ICE" is more popular than "Eliminate ICE as a federal agency". People even like the word.
bsky.app/profile/hype...
bsky.app/profile/hype...
This isn't a statistically significant difference, but YouGov had a separate poll out at the same time asking about "Eliminating ICE as a federal agency". "Eliminate" got 74/42/13 support from D/I/R, while "Abolish" got 77/47/14. So all that talk that "abolish" puts people off seems to be false.
January 13, 2026 at 7:32 PM
And "Abolish ICE" is more popular than "Eliminate ICE as a federal agency". People even like the word.
bsky.app/profile/hype...
bsky.app/profile/hype...
This isn't a statistically significant difference, but YouGov had a separate poll out at the same time asking about "Eliminating ICE as a federal agency". "Eliminate" got 74/42/13 support from D/I/R, while "Abolish" got 77/47/14. So all that talk that "abolish" puts people off seems to be false.
January 13, 2026 at 4:04 PM
This isn't a statistically significant difference, but YouGov had a separate poll out at the same time asking about "Eliminating ICE as a federal agency". "Eliminate" got 74/42/13 support from D/I/R, while "Abolish" got 77/47/14. So all that talk that "abolish" puts people off seems to be false.
If there is a second peak like in 2023-2024 (and the slight upturn suggests this is plausible), then the total area under the curve will be quite high if not "super". I don't think we're out of the woods yet.
January 8, 2026 at 6:35 PM
If there is a second peak like in 2023-2024 (and the slight upturn suggests this is plausible), then the total area under the curve will be quite high if not "super". I don't think we're out of the woods yet.
This arguably holds for papers, but books in these fields tend to be full of history as well as quantitative analysis.
Eg, here's just a random sample of recent political science, published by Princeton U. These books in no way resemble your caricature: press.princeton.edu/ideas/books-...
Eg, here's just a random sample of recent political science, published by Princeton U. These books in no way resemble your caricature: press.princeton.edu/ideas/books-...
Books for understanding how we vote
2024 is a momentous year for global elections, with high-stakes, historic elections in over 50 countries. Seeking clarity on voting worldwide, and the political and social factors at play? This readin...
press.princeton.edu
December 12, 2025 at 5:26 PM
This arguably holds for papers, but books in these fields tend to be full of history as well as quantitative analysis.
Eg, here's just a random sample of recent political science, published by Princeton U. These books in no way resemble your caricature: press.princeton.edu/ideas/books-...
Eg, here's just a random sample of recent political science, published by Princeton U. These books in no way resemble your caricature: press.princeton.edu/ideas/books-...
And so the conversation dies. Happy Stanciling!
November 28, 2025 at 5:35 PM
And so the conversation dies. Happy Stanciling!
I guess to be consistent with my original point, I would suggest that, rather than asking some random person's opinion on those questions, you look up the empirical research on Google Scholar, and let us know what the evidence shows.
November 27, 2025 at 6:18 PM
I guess to be consistent with my original point, I would suggest that, rather than asking some random person's opinion on those questions, you look up the empirical research on Google Scholar, and let us know what the evidence shows.
Ironically, because not all people get their ideas from others, there are some who, rather than merely accepting all-caps assertions that all ideas come from other people, study the world to see where ideas come from. And they find that in fact, some ideas come from people, some from the world.
November 27, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Ironically, because not all people get their ideas from others, there are some who, rather than merely accepting all-caps assertions that all ideas come from other people, study the world to see where ideas come from. And they find that in fact, some ideas come from people, some from the world.
On the one hand, the piece on Erdős cites Terence Tao using chatGPT to search for progress on various open Erdős problems. On the other hand, in those cites, Tao is a bit doubtful about chatGPT. On the third hand, one of the greatest living mathematicians thinks checking chatGPT is worth his time.
November 27, 2025 at 3:46 AM
On the one hand, the piece on Erdős cites Terence Tao using chatGPT to search for progress on various open Erdős problems. On the other hand, in those cites, Tao is a bit doubtful about chatGPT. On the third hand, one of the greatest living mathematicians thinks checking chatGPT is worth his time.
Is this implying that there is no conformity pressure for centrists or the center-left? At the level of social standing pressure (not content) are any of these factions -- far right, far left, or your own -- any different?
November 21, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Is this implying that there is no conformity pressure for centrists or the center-left? At the level of social standing pressure (not content) are any of these factions -- far right, far left, or your own -- any different?
Is it true though?
November 19, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Is it true though?
If we want to weight to any past electorate, 2018 is probably the best match for 2026. A dynamic model of turnout might be better, but at that point are we really doing polling, or are we doing election prediction? "LV" numbers in traditional polls similarly blend opinion measurement and prediction.
November 5, 2025 at 3:15 PM
If we want to weight to any past electorate, 2018 is probably the best match for 2026. A dynamic model of turnout might be better, but at that point are we really doing polling, or are we doing election prediction? "LV" numbers in traditional polls similarly blend opinion measurement and prediction.
What on earth is the meaning of two separate clips from Twin Peaks in there?
October 3, 2025 at 2:26 PM
What on earth is the meaning of two separate clips from Twin Peaks in there?
Without blaming Biden or crediting Trump, in terms of explaining election outcomes, the decline in poverty from 2015-2020 was huge (more than 50%, much of it preceding the stimulus), and the rise under Biden was also huge (due to the stimulus ending but also inflation). These were immense changes.
September 30, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Without blaming Biden or crediting Trump, in terms of explaining election outcomes, the decline in poverty from 2015-2020 was huge (more than 50%, much of it preceding the stimulus), and the rise under Biden was also huge (due to the stimulus ending but also inflation). These were immense changes.
Pew also has the data through 2024, though no surprises in the last decade: www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
August 30, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Pew also has the data through 2024, though no surprises in the last decade: www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
It's a fine metaphor, but it's not actually true about reviews. Individual reviews are slightly bimodal (mostly high, but with slightly more 1's than 3's), but product averages are highly unimodal, so the social process he describes is a nice story but not real. nycdatascience.com/blog/student...
August 24, 2025 at 2:38 AM
It's a fine metaphor, but it's not actually true about reviews. Individual reviews are slightly bimodal (mostly high, but with slightly more 1's than 3's), but product averages are highly unimodal, so the social process he describes is a nice story but not real. nycdatascience.com/blog/student...
Do dozens if not hundreds of papers on the relation between inflation and elections count as a "smidgen of empirical evidence"? scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=e...
scholar.google.com
August 1, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Do dozens if not hundreds of papers on the relation between inflation and elections count as a "smidgen of empirical evidence"? scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=e...
In addition to “both”, there may also have been some reverse causation: strictly enforcing decades of 2% inflation got people used to it and more likely to object to 3-5% than would have been the case had inflation been allowed to fluctuate more.
July 31, 2025 at 5:37 PM
In addition to “both”, there may also have been some reverse causation: strictly enforcing decades of 2% inflation got people used to it and more likely to object to 3-5% than would have been the case had inflation been allowed to fluctuate more.
Garbage. Those guys needs to learn to move their arms in sync as well as their legs. Otherwise they look like the irregular troops of a two-bit dictator rather than a proper totalitarian army.
June 13, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Garbage. Those guys needs to learn to move their arms in sync as well as their legs. Otherwise they look like the irregular troops of a two-bit dictator rather than a proper totalitarian army.
(Just to clarify, that is meant as a critique of Democratic popularism, not praise of conservatism.)
June 7, 2025 at 5:10 PM
(Just to clarify, that is meant as a critique of Democratic popularism, not praise of conservatism.)
Immigration and trans rights used to split Republicans. Instead of running from those issues or pursuing other issues that split the left, they persuaded both Republicans and Independents to move rightward, unified the party, and created wedges that the Democrats are now running from.
June 7, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Immigration and trans rights used to split Republicans. Instead of running from those issues or pursuing other issues that split the left, they persuaded both Republicans and Independents to move rightward, unified the party, and created wedges that the Democrats are now running from.
1. The midterms are not typically a referendum on the economy the way a presidential election is.
2. The inflation effect is heavily lagged, up to a year behind the immediate inflation level since price effects are cumulative.
3. Dobbs.
1 & 2 are what the data/models suggest. 3 is speculative.
2. The inflation effect is heavily lagged, up to a year behind the immediate inflation level since price effects are cumulative.
3. Dobbs.
1 & 2 are what the data/models suggest. 3 is speculative.
June 5, 2025 at 7:53 PM
1. The midterms are not typically a referendum on the economy the way a presidential election is.
2. The inflation effect is heavily lagged, up to a year behind the immediate inflation level since price effects are cumulative.
3. Dobbs.
1 & 2 are what the data/models suggest. 3 is speculative.
2. The inflation effect is heavily lagged, up to a year behind the immediate inflation level since price effects are cumulative.
3. Dobbs.
1 & 2 are what the data/models suggest. 3 is speculative.
Michigan measures D, R and I sentiment, and the mean trend is very close to the trend for Independents. The partisan asymmetry between D and R is small, so the flip-flops after each election largely cancel out.
May 31, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Michigan measures D, R and I sentiment, and the mean trend is very close to the trend for Independents. The partisan asymmetry between D and R is small, so the flip-flops after each election largely cancel out.