Helm Hammerhand Appreciator
helmhammer.bsky.social
Helm Hammerhand Appreciator
@helmhammer.bsky.social
There is no escape - we pay for the violence of our ancestors.
I mean, at 50x a cash flow number they’ve barely been able to grow for a decade, you could ask why the stock isn’t down more!
November 20, 2025 at 12:20 PM
You see the problem with “name one OTHER person”? I capitalized it for you.
November 13, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Sounds like you and your team weren’t very good at their jobs, then. Maybe worth a little self-reflection, instead of reflexive defense of your former employer.
November 13, 2025 at 8:15 PM
With EVs surprising to the upside and ESS cruising, they’ll be lucky to hit 2030 without that unrest. Massive current youth unemployment, long history of gdp getting kneecapped by oil. Not good.
November 13, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Don’t forget about repaying the tariffs!
November 8, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Yeah but like - what happens in 2028, is my question. $MU is at 100x LTM cash flow - as soon as the shortage turns into a glut, as they seem to do esp in memory, those semicap revenues vanish.
November 6, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Bud, in a picture of Mamdani and Raskin, you really think Raskin is the “marginalized” one?
November 5, 2025 at 1:24 AM
What is a good analogy though? The shale boom is my favorite (swap OPEC out for China/Deepseek), but that one isn’t so widely known.
November 4, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Every company that has identified a productive, non-civilly actionable token-heavy use for AI (Adobe?) will make a bundle, since the cost to deploy will drop in the neighborhood of 90%. All the “picks and shovels “ people are enamored with now really will go bankrupt though
November 4, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Insperity a puzzler - not really difficult to see a path back to typical earnings in 26 with hc rates reset. Everyone seems to forget how short tail insurance works when a co posts a loss. V different from Fiserv’s argentina angle that I totally missed and lost on, but wow was that funny.
November 4, 2025 at 12:56 AM
That’s @esghound.com ‘s music
November 3, 2025 at 8:50 PM
And look what the equity in Brookfield Renewables is worth post announcement, even though all the upside from Westinghouse has been killed.
November 1, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Yeah it’s clearly being read as a positive, but handing over a fat equity stake in exchange for a couple tens of millions of bucks is terrible news for these companies.
October 23, 2025 at 11:36 AM
10 million each - is that the right number? That’s like a month each of opex, it’s a fiftieth of the cash on the balance sheet. To say nothing of the market cap - like one-thousandth? What’s the point?
October 23, 2025 at 4:08 AM
Yeah quite long both
October 18, 2025 at 1:03 AM
Check out CNC or MOH - that’s a dip! At this point they are trading like they are going out of business permanently.
October 17, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Nice, that ticket is going to pay out. They can’t make FCF in the best of times, when everyone has an extra unused data center shell lying around they are absolutely done.
October 17, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Oh I don’t know - obviously when you’re a whale it’s hard to move around, but they could swap long for ultrashort and get the result, or buy even more gold since they seem into that lately, or even Euro sovereign debt - or better, all three and you’ve got enough change to affect the clearing yield
October 16, 2025 at 12:11 AM
I certainly hope this is the case, but all they have to do is dump the longest duration treasury bonds they have to blow out the 10Y, and evidently that hasn’t happened yet
October 16, 2025 at 12:02 AM