Civic Forge Solutions
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The Bluesky home of Civic Forge Solutions LLC (civicforge.solutions). We empower progressive & Democratic candidates, campaigns, and committees to win.
Focused on Georgia and based in Atlanta 🍑 🇺🇸
Focused on Georgia and based in Atlanta 🍑 🇺🇸
and...while Mayor Dickens won with an overwhelming 85% of the vote, weaker east side support.
Despite the loss, Rohit and political allies (WFP, for example) had a strong GOTV. Next time, they may find a lot more than the 2k votes they were under in '25.
3/
Despite the loss, Rohit and political allies (WFP, for example) had a strong GOTV. Next time, they may find a lot more than the 2k votes they were under in '25.
3/
November 5, 2025 at 3:43 PM
and...while Mayor Dickens won with an overwhelming 85% of the vote, weaker east side support.
Despite the loss, Rohit and political allies (WFP, for example) had a strong GOTV. Next time, they may find a lot more than the 2k votes they were under in '25.
3/
Despite the loss, Rohit and political allies (WFP, for example) had a strong GOTV. Next time, they may find a lot more than the 2k votes they were under in '25.
3/
Atlanta's political divide grows sharper.
The densely populated central-east precincts in D1,D2,D5, and D6's support of Rohit contrasts against the western & northern precincts.
Almost everybody in ATL is a Dem, but not everyone is a progressive.
ℹ️ ga2025.civicfs.app/atlanta?cont...
2/
The densely populated central-east precincts in D1,D2,D5, and D6's support of Rohit contrasts against the western & northern precincts.
Almost everybody in ATL is a Dem, but not everyone is a progressive.
ℹ️ ga2025.civicfs.app/atlanta?cont...
2/
November 5, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Atlanta's political divide grows sharper.
The densely populated central-east precincts in D1,D2,D5, and D6's support of Rohit contrasts against the western & northern precincts.
Almost everybody in ATL is a Dem, but not everyone is a progressive.
ℹ️ ga2025.civicfs.app/atlanta?cont...
2/
The densely populated central-east precincts in D1,D2,D5, and D6's support of Rohit contrasts against the western & northern precincts.
Almost everybody in ATL is a Dem, but not everyone is a progressive.
ℹ️ ga2025.civicfs.app/atlanta?cont...
2/
Oof. This is a tough one to report. With all precincts reporting in #Marietta, Tumlin has won over Foster by 258 votes. 😢
@samformarietta.bsky.social ran a damn good campaign, has an incredible future ahead of him, and I know we'll see him in elected office in the not-so-distant future.
@samformarietta.bsky.social ran a damn good campaign, has an incredible future ahead of him, and I know we'll see him in elected office in the not-so-distant future.
November 5, 2025 at 4:43 AM
Oof. This is a tough one to report. With all precincts reporting in #Marietta, Tumlin has won over Foster by 258 votes. 😢
@samformarietta.bsky.social ran a damn good campaign, has an incredible future ahead of him, and I know we'll see him in elected office in the not-so-distant future.
@samformarietta.bsky.social ran a damn good campaign, has an incredible future ahead of him, and I know we'll see him in elected office in the not-so-distant future.
Marietta 4C comprises part of Barnett Pkwy, Mt. Paran Christian School, and a few other random pieces:
(Ignore the lower right corner)
(Ignore the lower right corner)
November 5, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Marietta 4C comprises part of Barnett Pkwy, Mt. Paran Christian School, and a few other random pieces:
(Ignore the lower right corner)
(Ignore the lower right corner)
#Marietta update: We have one precinct remaining for EDay votes: 4C, where Tumlin had a 174 vote advantage. Currently, Foster has only a 48 vote lead.
It's going to be tough for Foster to overcome this precinct's election day votes, if they arrive at the same proportion as early vote
It's going to be tough for Foster to overcome this precinct's election day votes, if they arrive at the same proportion as early vote
November 5, 2025 at 4:21 AM
#Marietta update: We have one precinct remaining for EDay votes: 4C, where Tumlin had a 174 vote advantage. Currently, Foster has only a 48 vote lead.
It's going to be tough for Foster to overcome this precinct's election day votes, if they arrive at the same proportion as early vote
It's going to be tough for Foster to overcome this precinct's election day votes, if they arrive at the same proportion as early vote
50k more votes to go, and Overstreet and Rohit are tied, after Overstreet had the earlier advantage.
November 5, 2025 at 3:21 AM
50k more votes to go, and Overstreet and Rohit are tied, after Overstreet had the earlier advantage.
I think he is still very competitive in this race, and the latest results show he now has a narrow lead!
November 5, 2025 at 2:05 AM
I think he is still very competitive in this race, and the latest results show he now has a narrow lead!
These results are literally astonishing. Without DeKalb reporting, we have Dems leading 59.5% to Reps 40.5%.
I think we're seeing margins that were beyond what anyone could have expected. In Cobb early vote, Harris won @ 56.4%, while Dem PSC is @ 75.5%, +19 pp. ‼️ Just incredible.
I think we're seeing margins that were beyond what anyone could have expected. In Cobb early vote, Harris won @ 56.4%, while Dem PSC is @ 75.5%, +19 pp. ‼️ Just incredible.
November 5, 2025 at 1:16 AM
These results are literally astonishing. Without DeKalb reporting, we have Dems leading 59.5% to Reps 40.5%.
I think we're seeing margins that were beyond what anyone could have expected. In Cobb early vote, Harris won @ 56.4%, while Dem PSC is @ 75.5%, +19 pp. ‼️ Just incredible.
I think we're seeing margins that were beyond what anyone could have expected. In Cobb early vote, Harris won @ 56.4%, while Dem PSC is @ 75.5%, +19 pp. ‼️ Just incredible.
And by Decision Desk HQ. That's it! 💯
November 5, 2025 at 1:07 AM
And by Decision Desk HQ. That's it! 💯
We have some more data for PSC District 2:
With Dem 🔵 powerhouse counties of Dekalb and Fulton not yet reporting, we have Dems Johnson & Hubbard leading by ~55.5%. Cobb advanced reporting has concluded.
Analysis shortly...
With Dem 🔵 powerhouse counties of Dekalb and Fulton not yet reporting, we have Dems Johnson & Hubbard leading by ~55.5%. Cobb advanced reporting has concluded.
Analysis shortly...
November 5, 2025 at 12:54 AM
We have some more data for PSC District 2:
With Dem 🔵 powerhouse counties of Dekalb and Fulton not yet reporting, we have Dems Johnson & Hubbard leading by ~55.5%. Cobb advanced reporting has concluded.
Analysis shortly...
With Dem 🔵 powerhouse counties of Dekalb and Fulton not yet reporting, we have Dems Johnson & Hubbard leading by ~55.5%. Cobb advanced reporting has concluded.
Analysis shortly...
And we have confirmation from Cobb that all Advanced Voting ballots have been counted, so the results of the #Marietta mayor's race will come down to Election Day results.
#GaPol
#Decision2025
#GaPol
#Decision2025
November 5, 2025 at 12:44 AM
And we have confirmation from Cobb that all Advanced Voting ballots have been counted, so the results of the #Marietta mayor's race will come down to Election Day results.
#GaPol
#Decision2025
#GaPol
#Decision2025
Looking at our vote distribution by county, we're seeing some red counties, such as Tift, Baldwin, and Wilkes that voted Trump in '24 now are recording EV results with Dems leading...
November 5, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Looking at our vote distribution by county, we're seeing some red counties, such as Tift, Baldwin, and Wilkes that voted Trump in '24 now are recording EV results with Dems leading...
And we have our first results in for the PSC race with Dems leading 62.7% to 37.33%, with nearly equal vote totals between the two Democratic candidates.
November 5, 2025 at 12:20 AM
And we have our first results in for the PSC race with Dems leading 62.7% to 37.33%, with nearly equal vote totals between the two Democratic candidates.
According to the AJC, total EDay turnout was ~800k as of 6pm. This number should increase a bit for the 7pm final #, and is larger than the 640k who voted during Early Vote
This would put us statewide at a minimum of 20% total turnout
($) www.ajc.com/news/2025/11...
This would put us statewide at a minimum of 20% total turnout
($) www.ajc.com/news/2025/11...
November 5, 2025 at 12:07 AM
According to the AJC, total EDay turnout was ~800k as of 6pm. This number should increase a bit for the 7pm final #, and is larger than the 640k who voted during Early Vote
This would put us statewide at a minimum of 20% total turnout
($) www.ajc.com/news/2025/11...
This would put us statewide at a minimum of 20% total turnout
($) www.ajc.com/news/2025/11...
At 4pm, For Fulton Co, we have some scattered (but low) weight times at a few precincts in the county - the highest currently at the Cathedral of St. Philip in Buckhead, and the Helene Mills Senior Center in O4W.
November 4, 2025 at 9:03 PM
At 4pm, For Fulton Co, we have some scattered (but low) weight times at a few precincts in the county - the highest currently at the Cathedral of St. Philip in Buckhead, and the Helene Mills Senior Center in O4W.
[More] Noon Election Day voting updates! 🕛
In #Fulton County, we can obliquely review turnout by wait times (see table). S.R.S. School in N. Buckhead has 10 min waits, followed by Morningside P.C. (Va-Hi/Mside) and Jackson Church (Collier Heights) at 6 min and 5 min, respectively.
#Georgia
#GaPol
In #Fulton County, we can obliquely review turnout by wait times (see table). S.R.S. School in N. Buckhead has 10 min waits, followed by Morningside P.C. (Va-Hi/Mside) and Jackson Church (Collier Heights) at 6 min and 5 min, respectively.
#Georgia
#GaPol
November 4, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Noon Election Day voting update! 🕛
As of noon, #Dekalb precincts in Atlanta report 2,349 votes cast. Across all of Dekalb, 22,067 total votes are recorded. Combined with the 57,796 ballots already cast, we have a Dekalb county-wide turnout of 16.4% (as of 12pm, 11/4)
#GaPol
#Decision2025
#Georgia
As of noon, #Dekalb precincts in Atlanta report 2,349 votes cast. Across all of Dekalb, 22,067 total votes are recorded. Combined with the 57,796 ballots already cast, we have a Dekalb county-wide turnout of 16.4% (as of 12pm, 11/4)
#GaPol
#Decision2025
#Georgia
November 4, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Noon Election Day voting update! 🕛
As of noon, #Dekalb precincts in Atlanta report 2,349 votes cast. Across all of Dekalb, 22,067 total votes are recorded. Combined with the 57,796 ballots already cast, we have a Dekalb county-wide turnout of 16.4% (as of 12pm, 11/4)
#GaPol
#Decision2025
#Georgia
As of noon, #Dekalb precincts in Atlanta report 2,349 votes cast. Across all of Dekalb, 22,067 total votes are recorded. Combined with the 57,796 ballots already cast, we have a Dekalb county-wide turnout of 16.4% (as of 12pm, 11/4)
#GaPol
#Decision2025
#Georgia
This is where things get interesting. GA has open primaries, from which we can make assumptions about voters' likely party affiliation.
With this data, for 2025 early voters w/ partisan data, Dems 🔵 have the advantage (48.9%). How about voters only w/ non-partisan or no primary ballot (19.9%)?
4/
With this data, for 2025 early voters w/ partisan data, Dems 🔵 have the advantage (48.9%). How about voters only w/ non-partisan or no primary ballot (19.9%)?
4/
November 3, 2025 at 3:57 PM
This is where things get interesting. GA has open primaries, from which we can make assumptions about voters' likely party affiliation.
With this data, for 2025 early voters w/ partisan data, Dems 🔵 have the advantage (48.9%). How about voters only w/ non-partisan or no primary ballot (19.9%)?
4/
With this data, for 2025 early voters w/ partisan data, Dems 🔵 have the advantage (48.9%). How about voters only w/ non-partisan or no primary ballot (19.9%)?
4/
With these data and the '24 election results, a rough model can be built that weights current '25 turnout by county against the shares of votes received by 🔵 Harris and 🔴 Trump (see 🖼️).
Unhelpfully, the results are 50/50. But, what if we model based on voters' partisan affiliations?
3/
Unhelpfully, the results are 50/50. But, what if we model based on voters' partisan affiliations?
3/
November 3, 2025 at 3:57 PM
With these data and the '24 election results, a rough model can be built that weights current '25 turnout by county against the shares of votes received by 🔵 Harris and 🔴 Trump (see 🖼️).
Unhelpfully, the results are 50/50. But, what if we model based on voters' partisan affiliations?
3/
Unhelpfully, the results are 50/50. But, what if we model based on voters' partisan affiliations?
3/
Contested muni contests are driving turnout, not the PSC, which may result in certain counties having an outsized impact on the results of that race.
In this case, Fulton and Dekalb drive Dem 🔵 turnout, and suburban Fayette Co & rural counties drive of Rep 🔴 turnout. (see map).
2/
In this case, Fulton and Dekalb drive Dem 🔵 turnout, and suburban Fayette Co & rural counties drive of Rep 🔴 turnout. (see map).
2/
November 3, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Contested muni contests are driving turnout, not the PSC, which may result in certain counties having an outsized impact on the results of that race.
In this case, Fulton and Dekalb drive Dem 🔵 turnout, and suburban Fayette Co & rural counties drive of Rep 🔴 turnout. (see map).
2/
In this case, Fulton and Dekalb drive Dem 🔵 turnout, and suburban Fayette Co & rural counties drive of Rep 🔴 turnout. (see map).
2/
Forgot a chart on this post! The attached pie chart shows the early vote participation of 2021 and 2025 voters, in total.
November 1, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Forgot a chart on this post! The attached pie chart shows the early vote participation of 2021 and 2025 voters, in total.
There is also some differentiation between precincts re: these early voter participation stats: MR6A and MR7A had the highest number of new early voters & MR4A and MR4C had the fewest.
4/
4/
November 1, 2025 at 5:54 PM
There is also some differentiation between precincts re: these early voter participation stats: MR6A and MR7A had the highest number of new early voters & MR4A and MR4C had the fewest.
4/
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D11, the current District held by Overstreet, on net had a slight decrease in total vote share.
These trends reinforce the earlier trends observed during EV: northern districts stayed home, the denser eastern districts turned out, and the rest (including D11) were mostly the same.
3/
These trends reinforce the earlier trends observed during EV: northern districts stayed home, the denser eastern districts turned out, and the rest (including D11) were mostly the same.
3/
November 1, 2025 at 3:48 PM
D11, the current District held by Overstreet, on net had a slight decrease in total vote share.
These trends reinforce the earlier trends observed during EV: northern districts stayed home, the denser eastern districts turned out, and the rest (including D11) were mostly the same.
3/
These trends reinforce the earlier trends observed during EV: northern districts stayed home, the denser eastern districts turned out, and the rest (including D11) were mostly the same.
3/
Let's break the total EV down by district. This chart's bars shows the share of each district's early votes as a % of the total EV votes in '25. The dots show the vote share in '21.
D8 (Buckhead)'s share decreased, from 15% to 7% (-7.79pp), while D2, D5, and D1 together increased by +8.67pp
2/
D8 (Buckhead)'s share decreased, from 15% to 7% (-7.79pp), while D2, D5, and D1 together increased by +8.67pp
2/
November 1, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Let's break the total EV down by district. This chart's bars shows the share of each district's early votes as a % of the total EV votes in '25. The dots show the vote share in '21.
D8 (Buckhead)'s share decreased, from 15% to 7% (-7.79pp), while D2, D5, and D1 together increased by +8.67pp
2/
D8 (Buckhead)'s share decreased, from 15% to 7% (-7.79pp), while D2, D5, and D1 together increased by +8.67pp
2/
🚨 City of #Marietta 2025 Early Voting readout:
Final EV turnout estimated at 5,767 votes, higher than 2021's 3,442, 67.5% increase in EV turnout ‼️
With 47,268 registered voters, this equates to a 12.2% turnout, which is again exceptional for the EV period in an off-year election.
🧵 1/
#GaPol
Final EV turnout estimated at 5,767 votes, higher than 2021's 3,442, 67.5% increase in EV turnout ‼️
With 47,268 registered voters, this equates to a 12.2% turnout, which is again exceptional for the EV period in an off-year election.
🧵 1/
#GaPol
November 1, 2025 at 2:14 PM