Nick Hallmark
@hallmark-nick.bsky.social
Global Economist Bloomberg Economics/Geoeconomics - Creator of Bloomberg Fedspeak - Former IMF & AI Fintech - Bringing AI, NLP and big data to Macroeconomics and Geopolitics | All views and opinions are my own
Trump very clearly said if there was a LEGAL way it would be his Honor to pay it! If only the courts would give him a legally path!!
Multiple court rulings insisting he MUST fund SNAP are clearly not enough legal basis and he needs to appeal for more clarity since paying is what he wants to do
Multiple court rulings insisting he MUST fund SNAP are clearly not enough legal basis and he needs to appeal for more clarity since paying is what he wants to do
November 7, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Trump very clearly said if there was a LEGAL way it would be his Honor to pay it! If only the courts would give him a legally path!!
Multiple court rulings insisting he MUST fund SNAP are clearly not enough legal basis and he needs to appeal for more clarity since paying is what he wants to do
Multiple court rulings insisting he MUST fund SNAP are clearly not enough legal basis and he needs to appeal for more clarity since paying is what he wants to do
This is what we see in our model of Fed member statements. The gap on either side of this debate has been fluctuating but the blocks are really the hawks, the moderates, Waller Bowman and some doves, and then Miran on his own. I would suspect Hammack would have been a third dissent.
October 31, 2025 at 5:57 PM
This is what we see in our model of Fed member statements. The gap on either side of this debate has been fluctuating but the blocks are really the hawks, the moderates, Waller Bowman and some doves, and then Miran on his own. I would suspect Hammack would have been a third dissent.
Am I insane? And people say prediction markets are a good measure of something?
October 10, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Am I insane? And people say prediction markets are a good measure of something?
Ok? No disagreement this is too high in an ideal sense but this has been true in 84% of the period shown. Its lower than the historical average, below the 20yr and 10yr average, only barely above the 5yr average (which is also over 40)... What's the story here? "Grad Labor Market Remains Normal"?
October 3, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Ok? No disagreement this is too high in an ideal sense but this has been true in 84% of the period shown. Its lower than the historical average, below the 20yr and 10yr average, only barely above the 5yr average (which is also over 40)... What's the story here? "Grad Labor Market Remains Normal"?
We may very well be sleeping on the relationship between these two statements.
September 27, 2025 at 4:51 PM
We may very well be sleeping on the relationship between these two statements.
Remind me who was in charge of the FBI and the DOJ on January 6th 2021? It was Biden right? 2 weeks before his inauguration? That’s how it works right? Been a while since I took AP government
September 27, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Remind me who was in charge of the FBI and the DOJ on January 6th 2021? It was Biden right? 2 weeks before his inauguration? That’s how it works right? Been a while since I took AP government
I know it’s not rational and this joke is hilarious but this post made me irrationally angry…
September 7, 2025 at 2:04 AM
I know it’s not rational and this joke is hilarious but this post made me irrationally angry…
Markets heard one sentence. Our Fedspeak analyzes the whole speech.
August 22, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Markets heard one sentence. Our Fedspeak analyzes the whole speech.
Ah yes exactly why Article VII required ratification by the independent states, because they are merely “agents” of the government they are forming themselves… Federalists 39, 45, 46, the 10th amendment and obviously the Preamble
August 18, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Ah yes exactly why Article VII required ratification by the independent states, because they are merely “agents” of the government they are forming themselves… Federalists 39, 45, 46, the 10th amendment and obviously the Preamble
Market socialism […] the market mechanism is utilised to distribute economic output […], the economic surplus accrues to society at large […] through some form of collective, public or social ownership of capital.
O'Hara, Phillip (2003). Encyclopedia of Political Economy, Volume 2. p. 70.
O'Hara, Phillip (2003). Encyclopedia of Political Economy, Volume 2. p. 70.
August 11, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Market socialism […] the market mechanism is utilised to distribute economic output […], the economic surplus accrues to society at large […] through some form of collective, public or social ownership of capital.
O'Hara, Phillip (2003). Encyclopedia of Political Economy, Volume 2. p. 70.
O'Hara, Phillip (2003). Encyclopedia of Political Economy, Volume 2. p. 70.
Based on the current read from our Fedspeak Model Adriana Kugler is one of the FOMC’s more hawkish members.
blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
August 1, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Based on the current read from our Fedspeak Model Adriana Kugler is one of the FOMC’s more hawkish members.
blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
Huh what happened in April? 🤔
August 1, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Huh what happened in April? 🤔
Our Fedspeak model indicates Powell was exactly neutral in his post meeting speech today.
As of the last read a large gap remains between the Hawks, the moderates, and the doves. Notably, hawks are mostly voting members this year.
Unless the next 6 weeks bring changes September cuts look iffy
As of the last read a large gap remains between the Hawks, the moderates, and the doves. Notably, hawks are mostly voting members this year.
Unless the next 6 weeks bring changes September cuts look iffy
July 30, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Our Fedspeak model indicates Powell was exactly neutral in his post meeting speech today.
As of the last read a large gap remains between the Hawks, the moderates, and the doves. Notably, hawks are mostly voting members this year.
Unless the next 6 weeks bring changes September cuts look iffy
As of the last read a large gap remains between the Hawks, the moderates, and the doves. Notably, hawks are mostly voting members this year.
Unless the next 6 weeks bring changes September cuts look iffy
Not quite alone but he’s an outlier. There’s a bit of trimodal distribution going on. The gap between the hawks and the neutrals is quite interesting. And most importantly those hawks are almost all voting members this year.
July 30, 2025 at 12:26 AM
Not quite alone but he’s an outlier. There’s a bit of trimodal distribution going on. The gap between the hawks and the neutrals is quite interesting. And most importantly those hawks are almost all voting members this year.
While not yet indicating hikes are likely, our Bloomberg Economics Fedspeak Index has been trending up in recent weeks. Trump’s hope for a cut in the near term looks to be in opposition with the prevailing board view.
July 30, 2025 at 12:00 AM
While not yet indicating hikes are likely, our Bloomberg Economics Fedspeak Index has been trending up in recent weeks. Trump’s hope for a cut in the near term looks to be in opposition with the prevailing board view.
Right there. It’s right there Howard. Literally right there…
July 25, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Right there. It’s right there Howard. Literally right there…
But this one is actually what I asked for
July 24, 2025 at 11:54 PM
But this one is actually what I asked for
Well this one is just incredible even if John McConnell got a bit mixed up
July 24, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Well this one is just incredible even if John McConnell got a bit mixed up
People don’t fully grasp just how unprecedented these attacks have been.
July 24, 2025 at 1:23 PM
People don’t fully grasp just how unprecedented these attacks have been.
It may not get much attention but it I have to do it I will. Our last reading on this just 10 days ago was already bleak…
July 13, 2025 at 4:08 PM
It may not get much attention but it I have to do it I will. Our last reading on this just 10 days ago was already bleak…
Didn’t the president literally just have a private paid dinner with foreign holders of his meme coin and refuse to say who was there? I must have that wrong my memory has been so bad today.
May 25, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Didn’t the president literally just have a private paid dinner with foreign holders of his meme coin and refuse to say who was there? I must have that wrong my memory has been so bad today.
Better yet Venezuela isn’t even mentioned. But the real kicker to me is the self noted drivers of the “invasion”.
May 20, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Better yet Venezuela isn’t even mentioned. But the real kicker to me is the self noted drivers of the “invasion”.
Oh I really want to try… but also fee like this is my future…
May 20, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Oh I really want to try… but also fee like this is my future…