Nick Hallmark
@hallmark-nick.bsky.social
Global Economist Bloomberg Economics/Geoeconomics - Creator of Bloomberg Fedspeak - Former IMF & AI Fintech - Bringing AI, NLP and big data to Macroeconomics and Geopolitics | All views and opinions are my own
Finally got to see DC National Guard in action beyond standing or just walking on my commute this morning!
They were doing a cute fall photo shoot on the mall. Totes Adorbs 🥰 can’t wait for the Christmas card
They were doing a cute fall photo shoot on the mall. Totes Adorbs 🥰 can’t wait for the Christmas card
November 12, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Finally got to see DC National Guard in action beyond standing or just walking on my commute this morning!
They were doing a cute fall photo shoot on the mall. Totes Adorbs 🥰 can’t wait for the Christmas card
They were doing a cute fall photo shoot on the mall. Totes Adorbs 🥰 can’t wait for the Christmas card
I wonder if DJT will sue Fox and Laura Ingraham for defamation because they edited his answers
November 12, 2025 at 1:22 AM
I wonder if DJT will sue Fox and Laura Ingraham for defamation because they edited his answers
Reposted by Nick Hallmark
Do annotators agree with each other? No
But they agree with themselves, right? Also no
But they agree with themselves, right? Also no
November 11, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Do annotators agree with each other? No
But they agree with themselves, right? Also no
But they agree with themselves, right? Also no
Reposted by Nick Hallmark
His children lose their father's care.
Our economy loses his skill.
Our treasury loses his tax payments.
This family separation makes America poorer & less joyful.
President Reagan's amnesty program would have let him become a citizen after paperwork & paying $185 ($550 w/inflation).
Our economy loses his skill.
Our treasury loses his tax payments.
This family separation makes America poorer & less joyful.
President Reagan's amnesty program would have let him become a citizen after paperwork & paying $185 ($550 w/inflation).
It has been enormously difficult to see our members at American Families United go through forced family separation. Here's the story of Jenni and her husband. "Mexican father, reflecting a trend, leaves family of 19 years and self-deports due to threat of arrest."
abcnews.go.com/US/mexican-f...
abcnews.go.com/US/mexican-f...
Mexican father, reflecting a trend, leaves family of 19 years and self-deports due to threat of arrest
Fidel Rivera, a husband and father who has been in the U.S. for 30 years, is one of thousands of undocumented migrants who have self-deported due to the threat of arrest.
abcnews.go.com
November 11, 2025 at 10:36 AM
His children lose their father's care.
Our economy loses his skill.
Our treasury loses his tax payments.
This family separation makes America poorer & less joyful.
President Reagan's amnesty program would have let him become a citizen after paperwork & paying $185 ($550 w/inflation).
Our economy loses his skill.
Our treasury loses his tax payments.
This family separation makes America poorer & less joyful.
President Reagan's amnesty program would have let him become a citizen after paperwork & paying $185 ($550 w/inflation).
Trump very clearly said if there was a LEGAL way it would be his Honor to pay it! If only the courts would give him a legally path!!
Multiple court rulings insisting he MUST fund SNAP are clearly not enough legal basis and he needs to appeal for more clarity since paying is what he wants to do
Multiple court rulings insisting he MUST fund SNAP are clearly not enough legal basis and he needs to appeal for more clarity since paying is what he wants to do
November 7, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Trump very clearly said if there was a LEGAL way it would be his Honor to pay it! If only the courts would give him a legally path!!
Multiple court rulings insisting he MUST fund SNAP are clearly not enough legal basis and he needs to appeal for more clarity since paying is what he wants to do
Multiple court rulings insisting he MUST fund SNAP are clearly not enough legal basis and he needs to appeal for more clarity since paying is what he wants to do
Incredible thread
This is such a pernicious piece of disinformation I got out of bed to type this thread with a real keyboard. First off I strongly recommend against withdrawing your money from a bank because TikTok told you to. It's a giant waste of your time. Second: don't trust a man that drinks blue Gatorade Zero
@peark.es is it true are the banks out of money? Should we run to the bank and withdraw our money?
November 5, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Incredible thread
Reposted by Nick Hallmark
The aggressive immigration raids we now see across the nation began 10 months ago in California's Central Valley. Their impact on children, families, and communities is an important & active area of research
I'm pleased my study of the initial raid's early impact on students is now out in @pnas.org
I'm pleased my study of the initial raid's early impact on students is now out in @pnas.org
November 4, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Reposted by Nick Hallmark
Anyone remember when they called on Chair Powell to go to jail because of changes to the Fed’s renovations?
White House changes course and will now be demolishing the entire East Wing.
October 22, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Anyone remember when they called on Chair Powell to go to jail because of changes to the Fed’s renovations?
Reposted by Nick Hallmark
*US SEEKS TO QUADRUPLE BEEF PURCHASES FROM ARGENTINA: POLITICO
The ol’ “If-it-weren’t-for-me” brand of free-market capitalism. 🤡
October 22, 2025 at 7:57 PM
*US SEEKS TO QUADRUPLE BEEF PURCHASES FROM ARGENTINA: POLITICO
This idea of a cognitive core memory system is exactly what I have been toying with recently
recently we got
1. DeepSeek Sparse Attention (DSA) which solved the cost angle
2. DeepSeek-OCR which solved the performance angle
also there’s memory like Letta, and then cartridges pushing it into latent space
seems obvious that we’re rapidly approaching the 1B “cognitive core” model
1. DeepSeek Sparse Attention (DSA) which solved the cost angle
2. DeepSeek-OCR which solved the performance angle
also there’s memory like Letta, and then cartridges pushing it into latent space
seems obvious that we’re rapidly approaching the 1B “cognitive core” model
October 21, 2025 at 10:06 PM
This idea of a cognitive core memory system is exactly what I have been toying with recently
Am I insane? And people say prediction markets are a good measure of something?
October 10, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Am I insane? And people say prediction markets are a good measure of something?
Statisticians listening Trump talk about percentages:
a cartoon character from bob 's burgers is wearing a pink cat hat and making a funny face .
ALT: a cartoon character from bob 's burgers is wearing a pink cat hat and making a funny face .
media.tenor.com
October 9, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Statisticians listening Trump talk about percentages:
Mass/Social Media’s greatest sin is breaking the dynamics Madison laid out in Federalist 10 for a successful factional democracy.
Change my mind.
Change my mind.
October 7, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Mass/Social Media’s greatest sin is breaking the dynamics Madison laid out in Federalist 10 for a successful factional democracy.
Change my mind.
Change my mind.
Can we stop conflating “surging of federal resources and officers” to a city with the “federalizing of national guard troops and the military”? These are not the same thing.
One is a legal, normal way to handle crime issues, and has been done for decades. The other is authoritarian martial law.
One is a legal, normal way to handle crime issues, and has been done for decades. The other is authoritarian martial law.
October 5, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Can we stop conflating “surging of federal resources and officers” to a city with the “federalizing of national guard troops and the military”? These are not the same thing.
One is a legal, normal way to handle crime issues, and has been done for decades. The other is authoritarian martial law.
One is a legal, normal way to handle crime issues, and has been done for decades. The other is authoritarian martial law.
If only congress had seen fit to pass clear statute forbidding the minting of a living person on US coins… oh sorry they did? All the way back in 1866? My apologies Congress I was unaware of your game.
Unless…
Is Bessent planning to kill the president?
Unless…
Is Bessent planning to kill the president?
Treasury Department considers minting a $1 Trump coin www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Treasury Department considers minting a $1 Trump coin
The draft design of the coin, which was overseen by the Office of the U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach, features Trump’s profile on one side of the coin.
www.politico.com
October 3, 2025 at 10:29 PM
If only congress had seen fit to pass clear statute forbidding the minting of a living person on US coins… oh sorry they did? All the way back in 1866? My apologies Congress I was unaware of your game.
Unless…
Is Bessent planning to kill the president?
Unless…
Is Bessent planning to kill the president?
Ok? No disagreement this is too high in an ideal sense but this has been true in 84% of the period shown. Its lower than the historical average, below the 20yr and 10yr average, only barely above the 5yr average (which is also over 40)... What's the story here? "Grad Labor Market Remains Normal"?
October 3, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Ok? No disagreement this is too high in an ideal sense but this has been true in 84% of the period shown. Its lower than the historical average, below the 20yr and 10yr average, only barely above the 5yr average (which is also over 40)... What's the story here? "Grad Labor Market Remains Normal"?
Logic behind this shutdown for Dems is exactly the reason Ds will never really mount any serious opposition to Republicans. Protect democracy but otherwise let Rs burn it down. Show why Gov matters by letting Rs dismantle it. Ppl hate the gov until they need it. Rs are the dog that caught the bus.
October 2, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Logic behind this shutdown for Dems is exactly the reason Ds will never really mount any serious opposition to Republicans. Protect democracy but otherwise let Rs burn it down. Show why Gov matters by letting Rs dismantle it. Ppl hate the gov until they need it. Rs are the dog that caught the bus.
We may very well be sleeping on the relationship between these two statements.
September 27, 2025 at 4:51 PM
We may very well be sleeping on the relationship between these two statements.
Remind me who was in charge of the FBI and the DOJ on January 6th 2021? It was Biden right? 2 weeks before his inauguration? That’s how it works right? Been a while since I took AP government
September 27, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Remind me who was in charge of the FBI and the DOJ on January 6th 2021? It was Biden right? 2 weeks before his inauguration? That’s how it works right? Been a while since I took AP government
Reposted by Nick Hallmark
This is a bad omen for the US investment in Intel
The White House literally invoked its "Golden Share" in US Steel last week to block the company from stopping production at a money losing plant in Illinois
Hassett: "If we don't have any microchips, imagine production for just about everything in the US stops, then that's a real problem for national security. It's not a socialist policy. The govt is not coming in & trying to take over these companies the way a socialist would & give them a 5 year plan"
September 25, 2025 at 7:22 PM
This is a bad omen for the US investment in Intel
Reposted by Nick Hallmark
daily reminder that BERT still exists and is v good
September 25, 2025 at 10:19 PM
daily reminder that BERT still exists and is v good
Not sure what makes Argentina so systemically important to the US and when you throw in the soybean issue can’t really see how you defend this one politically. Sadly probably too esoteric an issue for any voters to understand or care
From Axios. Interesting insight into the developing soybean export crisis.
September 25, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Not sure what makes Argentina so systemically important to the US and when you throw in the soybean issue can’t really see how you defend this one politically. Sadly probably too esoteric an issue for any voters to understand or care
Reposted by Nick Hallmark
This is why the market has too many cuts priced in if the economy holds (... not enough if it tanks though)
HAMMACK: I EXPECT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRICE PRESSURES EARLY NEXT YEAR
September 22, 2025 at 5:43 PM
This is why the market has too many cuts priced in if the economy holds (... not enough if it tanks though)