Aleksandar Hummel
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Aleksandar Hummel
@haleksandar.bsky.social
120 followers 1 following 3.8K posts
Beach bum. 🏖️

Blog: linktr.ee/haleksandar

Somewhat funny,
Entirely serious.

Opinions my own.
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In contrast to #MMT, I find #UBI a more viable alternative b/c it's most directly stimulative. It can be though of as Pareto optimal, filling the deficit of demand in a productive way - whilst leaving allocation of (thus redistributed) resources to open-market. #Econsky

bsky.app/profile/hale...
Figure 3. A conceived expansion of taxation and/or profits Link to text: https://haleksandar.wordpress.com/2025/09/24/bitcoin-and-the-modern-economy-a-keynesian-exploration-of-the-economic-system-and-the-roles-of-fiscal-and-monetary-policy/
October 28, 2025 at 7:07 PM
By 2020 both BoJ and Fed balance sheets grew aprox. 4.5x vs. pre-GFC levels with limited impact on inflation suggesting IORB is effective. But, the critical insight is that sovereign debt rises much more steeply than actual base money, which MMT violates. I explored this topic (link in alt-text).
A section of text starting: 'With regard to the so-called "modern monetary theory"...' Link to full text: https://haleksandar.wordpress.com/2025/09/24/bitcoin-and-the-modern-economy-a-keynesian-exploration-of-the-economic-system-and-the-roles-of-fiscal-and-monetary-policy/
October 26, 2025 at 10:40 PM
First off he states "may not be showing up in averages but start of earnings season has been impressive." Right. And don't forget how inflated above earnings the S&P is (you'll find this in the first link below).
Figure representing earnings growth of the S&P, with the update provided as of Friday marked with an "x". (Arguably this is a "blended" rate where Sozzi cites exclusively the actual reported values.) Sources. Link: https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_101725B.pdf Link:https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-24-2025 Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/earnings-live-general-motors-and-ge-raise-guidance-coca-cola-stock-rises-on-earnings-beat-121339934.html
October 26, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Regarding "continued disinflation" it's somewhat challenging to observe it in below charts.

Oil price will continue to lower the y/y print into year end but going into spring the base of the comparison (spike in oil prices in winter 2024) will have dissipated and #inflation found room to rise.
Chart 2. 12 month CPI-U Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
October 24, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Sep #CPI is a story of energy and #tariffs. Electricity down since #bitcoin is moderating? Petrol above season avg. but will moderate through end year. Apparel and (not shown) appliances up 8 and 9% annualised! Bottom line: expect slack left by housing/oil to firm other categories. #Econsky
Table 1. CPI-U (highlighting discussed items) Document link: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
October 24, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Of all noted statements (thanks @krankepantzen.bsky.social for the round-up and commentary!) I find the below one most amenable. Further to reasoning reproduced here, I reach the conclusion precisely some redistribution of wealth is a component of optimal policy. #Econsky

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A paragraph from the linked text starting with: "Next to the offsetting of costs we note two further reasons..." Link to full text: https://haleksandar.wordpress.com/2025/09/24/bitcoin-and-the-modern-economy-a-keynesian-exploration-of-the-economic-system-and-the-roles-of-fiscal-and-monetary-policy/
October 23, 2025 at 2:23 PM
This tells the story. 2015-17 there was no earnings growth. Comes Trump and cuts taxes in #TCJA and voila - earnings grow (literally the net effect of accounting), then we get Covid and inflation. Sure, fine, the new "normal" level of earnings is 2022-H124 - after which comes the #AI boom.
Charted titled "Trailing 12M P/E Ratio: 10-Years" Source: https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_101725B.pdf (pg 32)
October 21, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Ran into an interesting chart (links in alt-text). Do slowing earnings growth (reported so far this quarter is 8.5%) and already inflated multiples (pulled ahead of earnings trend in Q323 when #Fed ceased tightening) signal #markets to moderate or will forthcoming easing lift both trends? #Econsky
A bar chart showing expected and actual EPS growth for the S&P each quarter since Q121, turning from negative to positive in Q323 and an apparent peak in Q424 - annotated with a downward arrow. Link: https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_101725B.pdf Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/earnings-live-general-motors-and-ge-raise-guidance-coca-cola-stock-rises-on-earnings-beat-121339934.html
October 21, 2025 at 6:05 PM
I picked this up and found it presses well against the ossifying socio-economic order, but also that it goes too far to make its case. Rejection of economic fundamentalism is dear to me, but dearer still is the truth. Here's my brief response. #Econsky #Booksky
Text, black on white. Too long to fit in description. Text, black on white. Too long to fit in description.
October 18, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Someone who said nothing absolutely nothing of significance but twisted words and sounded awfully lot like a Yarvinist nihilist.
Screenshot showing the user @lukerussell.bsky.social is blocking me.
October 12, 2025 at 12:35 AM
"[Gaza] agreement would not have happened without president Trump's leadership. I want to be really clear about that and I say that from the informed position of the UK having played a part behind the scenes in this with the US and with the mediators." #StarmerOut
A drone shot of a levelled town in Palestine. Image: https://theintercept.com/2025/03/27/israel-palestinian-drone-journalists-killed-gaza/ Quote: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c33rgd5gmrxo
October 9, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Looking at France, I see Republicans and Greens as potentially rational parties part of a solution. The left sees the problem correctly but is intent on an entirely wrong approach while the right is overboard, as the Macronians who want to patch up a system that no longer works.
A presentation of the parties construing the French National Assembly. Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9zkzl21kmo
October 8, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Among grotesque claims (e.g. Nazi shame is losing) the author diagnoses the state of #EU correctly as senses US weakness, but in a laissez-faire fundamentalist view coupled with xenophobia misses that trade protectionism's never ameliorated deficiencies that weaken economies under #inequality.
Figure 2. Deficit spending at inception Link to text: https://haleksandar.wordpress.com/2025/09/24/bitcoin-and-the-modern-economy-a-keynesian-exploration-of-the-economic-system-and-the-roles-of-fiscal-and-monetary-policy/ Text, black on white - too long to fit in description. Conclusion of the critique, black on white as read here below. *** But also the claim that it's currency depreciation that makes exports more competitive is shaky. The case rather is the lessened debt load post a default, the decreased cost base lead to this outcome. If a weaker currency translates to increased wage demands then the effect is nill. This is the same as in the US where the quasi economists of the MAGA school expect the people to accept lower real income and work for the benefit of the oligarchy toward producing a surplus of goods to export that the domestic market itself can not absorb (as the wages are too low). Lastly, he doesn't ask how are Chinese who own bitcoin faring. And he misses to account for the different currency EuroStoxx and MSCI World are priced in (so is fooled by the returns). Then as well that the euro appreciated on the drop in US yields and adjudged weaker economic potential of the US under MAGA policy and the spot rate differential, but by this point the "essay" is deep in Wonderland so who cares anyway?
October 6, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Considering Stephen Miran's speech on Monday, yes - despite his severely flawed argumentation - it's definitely true #MAGA administration dropped r*. The question now is whether they crash the currency too. I had the below insights to share.

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

#Fed #Econsky
A couple of paragraphs from my blog post "Bitcoin and the Modern Economy" starting with: "A successful monetary authority will carefully weigh..." Link: https://haleksandar.wordpress.com/2025/09/24/bitcoin-and-the-modern-economy-a-keynesian-exploration-of-the-economic-system-and-the-roles-of-fiscal-and-monetary-policy/
September 24, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Shows two points at core of economic system and human nature really well. 🧵 #Econsky #Block-O-Drama

I) Protectionism brings benefit to shareholders at cost of consumers. But, shareholders can benefit only as deep as consumers pockets run ergo #equality matters and is good for profits and society.
A screenshot of a post: https://bsky.app/profile/princessjennifer.bsky.social/post/3lz2lb3oa422n Showing my reply: https://bsky.app/profile/haleksandar.bsky.social/post/3lz4wsuv77c2r A screenshot showing user @princessjennifer.bsky.social is blocking me.
September 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
You're confused. #Bitcoin is the ultimate fiat. It's a Trojan horse since it depends on fiat to work, it uses the financial system against itself, subverts it, uses limits of tech as a wedge to over-turn #democracy and bring #fascism. It brings no balance but darkness. Elon spread hate in 🇬🇧 today.
An image of Donald Trump with arms spread wide standing behind the podium on the "bitcoin2024 Nashville" conference "July 25-27, 2024"
September 13, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Thanks. Resources tend to be pooled toward most promising endeavours so lower margin markets are often under-served. I suppose to the extent that establishing guidelines is an expense actually doing so would lead to efficiencies. It's baffling so little is done. I wrote to this in broader context.
A paragraph from my blog post entitled "Dominoes" starting with the phrase: "The question of benefit of our political..." Link: https://haleksandar.wordpress.com/2025/05/05/dominoes/
September 12, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Finally #MAGA #inflation! Food (fresh) #ICE. Goods/apparel #tariffs. Rents - bad. Oil - up (will get worse). Good side - electricity (maybe not so much #bitcoin mining). Core - medical services eased - probably just summer. Winning! Probably (much) more to come. #Econsky
A screenshot of Table 1. from the Aug. 2025 CPI report with some aggregates mention in the post highlighted in red. Link: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
September 11, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Oh, did I hurt someone's delicate feelings? Or perhaps is it just that life without Prime is too rough to fathom? 🤭

#health #americancorporations #EconSky #divest #Europe #Asia #Africa #Australia #latinamerica
A screenshot showing user @rachelporter91.bsky.social is blocking me. A screenshot of a post: https://bsky.app/profile/rachelporter91.bsky.social/post/3lxggsbf3lc2d A screenshot of a post: https://bsky.app/profile/rachelporter91.bsky.social/post/3lxgdrrw56c2r
September 3, 2025 at 9:52 PM
“They don’t understand that it is the central ballgame, the central point — that we are under a fascist dictatorship for billionaires. They are completely out of touch with the base.”

Precisely what I was saying six months ago.

Got to show how democratic values connect to "kitchen-table" issues.
Screenshot of an [x/11] thread from my profile 5mo ago.
August 31, 2025 at 11:05 PM
#Bitcoin mafia continues their campaign of lies.

Money isn't created out of thin air. Backing every dollar, every euro is an asset of equal value, usually a loan that someone is obligated to repay.

Unlike bitcoin which once you hold you only hope someone comes back for.

Bitcoin is the true fiat.
A screenshot of a meme presented by the user @bitcoinbro.bsky.social showing a stack of a hundred dollar bills which chains and a lock stating above: The biggest scam in history isn't bitcoin It's the fact that you work for money... and they create it out of thin air. Link to post: https://bsky.app/profile/bitcoinbro.bsky.social/post/3lxhe756lek2e
August 29, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Russian troops taking Samarkand in 1868, by Nikolay Karazin

I mean, is there a "neighbour" that Russia hasn't invaded?
The time for guns to talk is over, it is time to make peace.
The painting titled in the post. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uzbekistan#/media/File:Karazin_-_Entry_of_Russian_troops_into_Samarkand_1868.jpg
August 29, 2025 at 2:35 PM
I don't think 10Y sensibly gets to 7%, that's too far out but also the Fed would monetise it. Sure, the #dollar would take a hit but 10Y stays supported. And the Fed only owes the Treasury some $240B in earnings, not a cent more. Then, who'd ever suspect him of trying to lift gold from Fort Knox?
A photograph of president Trump sitting in the Oval Office adorned with an abundance of golden decorations. Source: https://images.fastcompany.com/image/upload/f_webp,q_auto,c_fit,w_1024,h_1024/wp-cms-2/2025/05/p-1-91329575-trump-oval-decoration.jpg
August 25, 2025 at 6:31 PM
The Fed chips in disagreement, that seems entirely reasonable. #Econsky
A paragraph from Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on 22 Aug 2025 with the following sentence highlighted: "We continue to believe that setting a numerical goal for employment is unwise, because the maximum level of employment is not directly measurable and changes over time for reasons unrelated to monetary policy." Link to full text: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm
August 22, 2025 at 4:21 PM
For reference, updated parameters to the model I originally presented on my blog: haleksandar.wordpress.com/2025/04/14/t.... That's still where the world's headed but by a different course that changed with "trading partners" agreeing to pay tribute to Trump against market principles, unexpectedly.
A table outlining the calculation of the model, text doesn't fit in description.
August 22, 2025 at 4:06 PM