Georg Zachmann
@gzachmann.bsky.social
senior fellow - energy & climate policy -
@bruegel_org
Scientific Lead - GreenDealUkraїna -
@HZBde
@bruegel_org
Scientific Lead - GreenDealUkraїna -
@HZBde
Ex post, it seems not surprising traders were not as keen to fill EU gas storages this year (orange) as much as last year (blue). Gas gas prices are lower now, than anytime earlier this year.
November 9, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Ex post, it seems not surprising traders were not as keen to fill EU gas storages this year (orange) as much as last year (blue). Gas gas prices are lower now, than anytime earlier this year.
Integrating Ukraine into the EU electricity market is key for the development of the UA elec sector & also beneficial for the EU.
A lot of technical progress has been made - yet more regulatory progress needed.
In our new report we discuss crucial next steps:
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
A lot of technical progress has been made - yet more regulatory progress needed.
In our new report we discuss crucial next steps:
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
October 29, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Integrating Ukraine into the EU electricity market is key for the development of the UA elec sector & also beneficial for the EU.
A lot of technical progress has been made - yet more regulatory progress needed.
In our new report we discuss crucial next steps:
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
A lot of technical progress has been made - yet more regulatory progress needed.
In our new report we discuss crucial next steps:
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
GDUkraine Figure: CBAM
- 2/3 of Ukraine’s total exports go to EU
- ~15% of those might fall under CBAM, thereof:
* Iron&steel dominate
* Fertilizer exports, once modest, have ceased entirely
* Alu & cement exports' share slightly up
* Electricity exports volatile
www.linkedin.com/posts/green-...
- 2/3 of Ukraine’s total exports go to EU
- ~15% of those might fall under CBAM, thereof:
* Iron&steel dominate
* Fertilizer exports, once modest, have ceased entirely
* Alu & cement exports' share slightly up
* Electricity exports volatile
www.linkedin.com/posts/green-...
October 28, 2025 at 1:21 PM
GDUkraine Figure: CBAM
- 2/3 of Ukraine’s total exports go to EU
- ~15% of those might fall under CBAM, thereof:
* Iron&steel dominate
* Fertilizer exports, once modest, have ceased entirely
* Alu & cement exports' share slightly up
* Electricity exports volatile
www.linkedin.com/posts/green-...
- 2/3 of Ukraine’s total exports go to EU
- ~15% of those might fall under CBAM, thereof:
* Iron&steel dominate
* Fertilizer exports, once modest, have ceased entirely
* Alu & cement exports' share slightly up
* Electricity exports volatile
www.linkedin.com/posts/green-...
We updated our assessment of the debt situation in the Ukrainian energy sector (now also partially cover heat and gas):
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
October 18, 2025 at 7:50 PM
We updated our assessment of the debt situation in the Ukrainian energy sector (now also partially cover heat and gas):
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
Für Haushaltskunden scheint sich in den letzten Jahren die regionale Preisverteilung deutlich verschoben zu haben:
- 2018 - teure Diagonale von Brandenburg nach BaWü
- 2025 teures Thüringen
Die alte BRD/DDR-Grenze ist aber nicht sichtbar.
- 2018 - teure Diagonale von Brandenburg nach BaWü
- 2025 teures Thüringen
Die alte BRD/DDR-Grenze ist aber nicht sichtbar.
October 17, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Für Haushaltskunden scheint sich in den letzten Jahren die regionale Preisverteilung deutlich verschoben zu haben:
- 2018 - teure Diagonale von Brandenburg nach BaWü
- 2025 teures Thüringen
Die alte BRD/DDR-Grenze ist aber nicht sichtbar.
- 2018 - teure Diagonale von Brandenburg nach BaWü
- 2025 teures Thüringen
Die alte BRD/DDR-Grenze ist aber nicht sichtbar.
The introduction of Locational Price Signals in the European power market could lead to system savings of € 26-61 bn EACH YEAR by 2040.
New JRC study: publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/h...
New JRC study: publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/h...
October 16, 2025 at 11:50 AM
The introduction of Locational Price Signals in the European power market could lead to system savings of € 26-61 bn EACH YEAR by 2040.
New JRC study: publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/h...
New JRC study: publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/h...
So to balance the system, Ukraine would have to:
- repair production capacities faster,
- and/or reduce gas consumption (which will depend on weather, but also on gas-fired electricity production),
- and/or increase gas imports.
Below the weekly gas flows into Ukraine:
- repair production capacities faster,
- and/or reduce gas consumption (which will depend on weather, but also on gas-fired electricity production),
- and/or increase gas imports.
Below the weekly gas flows into Ukraine:
October 15, 2025 at 9:11 AM
So to balance the system, Ukraine would have to:
- repair production capacities faster,
- and/or reduce gas consumption (which will depend on weather, but also on gas-fired electricity production),
- and/or increase gas imports.
Below the weekly gas flows into Ukraine:
- repair production capacities faster,
- and/or reduce gas consumption (which will depend on weather, but also on gas-fired electricity production),
- and/or increase gas imports.
Below the weekly gas flows into Ukraine:
Ukraine’s gas system has experienced a series of major attacks over the past week. According to Bloomberg, 60% of gas production capacities were disabled.
If the situation with ~50% lower production continues in Oct-Dec25 (at last year's consumt&import), gas storage would be depleted by March 2026.
If the situation with ~50% lower production continues in Oct-Dec25 (at last year's consumt&import), gas storage would be depleted by March 2026.
October 14, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Ukraine’s gas system has experienced a series of major attacks over the past week. According to Bloomberg, 60% of gas production capacities were disabled.
If the situation with ~50% lower production continues in Oct-Dec25 (at last year's consumt&import), gas storage would be depleted by March 2026.
If the situation with ~50% lower production continues in Oct-Dec25 (at last year's consumt&import), gas storage would be depleted by March 2026.
Today in Kyiv: National University Kyiv Mohyla Academy and GreenDealUkraina jointly unveiling their plans to create a joint Energy and Climate Lab.
October 14, 2025 at 7:04 AM
Today in Kyiv: National University Kyiv Mohyla Academy and GreenDealUkraina jointly unveiling their plans to create a joint Energy and Climate Lab.
As LLMs "learnt " that in East-Germany statistics/assessments are often worse than in the West, they automatically assume this to be the case in other areas, amplifying negative stereotypes.
Case in point, many models claim that body temperature is lower in the East.
www.heise.de/news/Forschu...
Case in point, many models claim that body temperature is lower in the East.
www.heise.de/news/Forschu...
October 11, 2025 at 2:55 PM
As LLMs "learnt " that in East-Germany statistics/assessments are often worse than in the West, they automatically assume this to be the case in other areas, amplifying negative stereotypes.
Case in point, many models claim that body temperature is lower in the East.
www.heise.de/news/Forschu...
Case in point, many models claim that body temperature is lower in the East.
www.heise.de/news/Forschu...
Comparing apples (EU HH-electricity prices incl taxes +35%) and oranges (US electricity CPI +38%) - but a good reminder that the data you pick can allow for drastically different narratives.
October 7, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Comparing apples (EU HH-electricity prices incl taxes +35%) and oranges (US electricity CPI +38%) - but a good reminder that the data you pick can allow for drastically different narratives.
NATO Resources Office has just allocated Zt60mn for planning and design of extending the Central Europe Pipeline System for fuels to Poland - the 300 km link should cost $5.5 billion acc. to Reuters:
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
I saw little discussion on this in Germany.
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
I saw little discussion on this in Germany.
October 3, 2025 at 10:19 AM
NATO Resources Office has just allocated Zt60mn for planning and design of extending the Central Europe Pipeline System for fuels to Poland - the 300 km link should cost $5.5 billion acc. to Reuters:
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
I saw little discussion on this in Germany.
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
I saw little discussion on this in Germany.
GDU Figure of the Week
After 2022 Ukraine often relied on electricity imports.
But this summer, Ukraine, once again became a structural exporter. And last month, Ukraine's exports even exceeded pre-invasion levels.
www.linkedin.com/posts/green-...
thx to R.Stubbe
After 2022 Ukraine often relied on electricity imports.
But this summer, Ukraine, once again became a structural exporter. And last month, Ukraine's exports even exceeded pre-invasion levels.
www.linkedin.com/posts/green-...
thx to R.Stubbe
October 2, 2025 at 4:11 PM
GDU Figure of the Week
After 2022 Ukraine often relied on electricity imports.
But this summer, Ukraine, once again became a structural exporter. And last month, Ukraine's exports even exceeded pre-invasion levels.
www.linkedin.com/posts/green-...
thx to R.Stubbe
After 2022 Ukraine often relied on electricity imports.
But this summer, Ukraine, once again became a structural exporter. And last month, Ukraine's exports even exceeded pre-invasion levels.
www.linkedin.com/posts/green-...
thx to R.Stubbe
EU annual coal imports are about 10x larger than the aggregate of the key critical raw materials tabled by Eurostat (on this nice page: ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta...)
September 29, 2025 at 2:06 PM
EU annual coal imports are about 10x larger than the aggregate of the key critical raw materials tabled by Eurostat (on this nice page: ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta...)
... As TUR, IND and CHN sell virtually no crude oil to the EU, their increase in exports to the EU comes from oil products.
While CHN and IND oil products exports peaked in 2023, those from TUR reached a new peak in 2025 (7%).
While CHN and IND oil products exports peaked in 2023, those from TUR reached a new peak in 2025 (7%).
September 27, 2025 at 3:28 PM
... As TUR, IND and CHN sell virtually no crude oil to the EU, their increase in exports to the EU comes from oil products.
While CHN and IND oil products exports peaked in 2023, those from TUR reached a new peak in 2025 (7%).
While CHN and IND oil products exports peaked in 2023, those from TUR reached a new peak in 2025 (7%).
EU oil and oil product imports from Russia.
- Direct imports from Russia dropped drastically (now 2% of crude oil and oil products)
- Imports from TUR/IND/CHN represented 1.8% in 2021 and reached a peak of 4.4% in 2024, to fall to 3.5% in the first seven month of 2025.
...
- Direct imports from Russia dropped drastically (now 2% of crude oil and oil products)
- Imports from TUR/IND/CHN represented 1.8% in 2021 and reached a peak of 4.4% in 2024, to fall to 3.5% in the first seven month of 2025.
...
September 27, 2025 at 3:28 PM
EU oil and oil product imports from Russia.
- Direct imports from Russia dropped drastically (now 2% of crude oil and oil products)
- Imports from TUR/IND/CHN represented 1.8% in 2021 and reached a peak of 4.4% in 2024, to fall to 3.5% in the first seven month of 2025.
...
- Direct imports from Russia dropped drastically (now 2% of crude oil and oil products)
- Imports from TUR/IND/CHN represented 1.8% in 2021 and reached a peak of 4.4% in 2024, to fall to 3.5% in the first seven month of 2025.
...
Just Published: The discussion on international flexibilities in EU climate targets is picking up. This strawman proposal should help to identify options and weak points when trying to design a robust architecture.
degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
September 26, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Just Published: The discussion on international flexibilities in EU climate targets is picking up. This strawman proposal should help to identify options and weak points when trying to design a robust architecture.
degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
Bruegel Gas Tracker Update
by @keliauskaite.bsky.social
- record seasonal LNG import
- storage level still below 2022/2023/2024 values in mid-September
www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
by @keliauskaite.bsky.social
- record seasonal LNG import
- storage level still below 2022/2023/2024 values in mid-September
www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
September 25, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Bruegel Gas Tracker Update
by @keliauskaite.bsky.social
- record seasonal LNG import
- storage level still below 2022/2023/2024 values in mid-September
www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
by @keliauskaite.bsky.social
- record seasonal LNG import
- storage level still below 2022/2023/2024 values in mid-September
www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
... and you did not see the cool ones from deep in the bowels of BESSY II
September 24, 2025 at 8:03 PM
... and you did not see the cool ones from deep in the bowels of BESSY II
The interconnected EU electricity system is a breeding ground for acronyms and overlapping regional institutions
September 23, 2025 at 8:40 PM
The interconnected EU electricity system is a breeding ground for acronyms and overlapping regional institutions
Assessment of German electricity demand was published today - arguably commissioned by the Ministry to justify reducing the speed of RES/grid invest. It's a meta-study showing the wide range of existing projections.
www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE...
h/t @mkreutzfeldt.bsky.social
www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE...
h/t @mkreutzfeldt.bsky.social
September 15, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Assessment of German electricity demand was published today - arguably commissioned by the Ministry to justify reducing the speed of RES/grid invest. It's a meta-study showing the wide range of existing projections.
www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE...
h/t @mkreutzfeldt.bsky.social
www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE...
h/t @mkreutzfeldt.bsky.social
Italy has led in prime minister turnover for most of the past three decades. At the moment it’s tied with both on their 18th new PM since 1990 - but soon France is about to take the lead, the first time since 2000.
ChatGPT figure based on Wikipedia (let me know if you spot some hallucinations)
ChatGPT figure based on Wikipedia (let me know if you spot some hallucinations)
September 8, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Italy has led in prime minister turnover for most of the past three decades. At the moment it’s tied with both on their 18th new PM since 1990 - but soon France is about to take the lead, the first time since 2000.
ChatGPT figure based on Wikipedia (let me know if you spot some hallucinations)
ChatGPT figure based on Wikipedia (let me know if you spot some hallucinations)
The Commission says this is possible (side note - I don’t know what is meant by “services”).
Source for data/figures (very nice Eurostat data-explainer page): ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta....
Source for data/figures (very nice Eurostat data-explainer page): ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta....
September 6, 2025 at 8:34 AM
The Commission says this is possible (side note - I don’t know what is meant by “services”).
Source for data/figures (very nice Eurostat data-explainer page): ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta....
Source for data/figures (very nice Eurostat data-explainer page): ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta....
At present, however, only 15% of oil is sourced from the US - about €34 billion. For LNG the figure is 51% (€31 billion), and for coal 31% (€2 billion).
3/5
3/5
September 6, 2025 at 8:34 AM
At present, however, only 15% of oil is sourced from the US - about €34 billion. For LNG the figure is 51% (€31 billion), and for coal 31% (€2 billion).
3/5
3/5
Of this, about 63% is oil, 17% LNG, 17% pipeline gas, and 2% coal.
Since pipeline gas cannot be imported from the US, the EU would, for example, have to source 72% of its oil, LNG, and coal from the US in order to reach $750 billion.
2/5
Since pipeline gas cannot be imported from the US, the EU would, for example, have to source 72% of its oil, LNG, and coal from the US in order to reach $750 billion.
2/5
September 6, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Of this, about 63% is oil, 17% LNG, 17% pipeline gas, and 2% coal.
Since pipeline gas cannot be imported from the US, the EU would, for example, have to source 72% of its oil, LNG, and coal from the US in order to reach $750 billion.
2/5
Since pipeline gas cannot be imported from the US, the EU would, for example, have to source 72% of its oil, LNG, and coal from the US in order to reach $750 billion.
2/5