Griffin Shelor
@gshelor.bsky.social
Aspiring geospatial/earth science/stats nerd. I also like sports analytics. Currently Geography PhD Student at OK State, previously MS at UNR #TheStoryOfSlate #ThatsSoGMC
In the #NFLVoA this is the first week that only current season stats are included in the model so it's interesting to see it doing the same "expand the range of overall ratings values" thing that the CFB VoA did in its first week using only current season data. Hopefully the NFL VoA avoids ths yo-yo
November 19, 2025 at 5:44 PM
In the #NFLVoA this is the first week that only current season stats are included in the model so it's interesting to see it doing the same "expand the range of overall ratings values" thing that the CFB VoA did in its first week using only current season data. Hopefully the NFL VoA avoids ths yo-yo
The #NFLVoA has had basically the same issues as the #CFBVoA but with less success ATS. On the bright side, much like the CFB VoA, at least the zero point is closer to the middle of the league now instead of being down in the mid-lower 20s. Not 100% sure what VoA sees in the Texans tho
November 19, 2025 at 5:44 PM
For the life of me I can't figure out why #VoA loves Missouri so much more than Bama, Tennessee, and Georgia. Please advise. It's not the only way the rankings don't make sense, but I probably wouldn't notice much other weirdness with the ranking order if this weirdness wasn't there.
November 19, 2025 at 5:19 PM
For the life of me I can't figure out why #VoA loves Missouri so much more than Bama, Tennessee, and Georgia. Please advise. It's not the only way the rankings don't make sense, but I probably wouldn't notice much other weirdness with the ranking order if this weirdness wasn't there.
The #MAC is another example of an issue my model is having, where it just doesn't seem to properly rate how (sorry) bad the weaker teams in FBS are. Admittedly I mostly say this because I'll look at @espn.com's #FPI and Bill Connelly's SP+ as benchmarks for what is "reasonable" for rating values.
November 19, 2025 at 5:19 PM
The *rankings* seem mostly stable or at least reasonably responsive to performance but the instability of the ratings seems like a pretty huge problem and I have no idea how to fix it.
Also poor OKState. League of our own sadly.
Also poor OKState. League of our own sadly.
November 19, 2025 at 5:19 PM
The *rankings* seem mostly stable or at least reasonably responsive to performance but the instability of the ratings seems like a pretty huge problem and I have no idea how to fix it.
Also poor OKState. League of our own sadly.
Also poor OKState. League of our own sadly.
The yo-yo effect is officially a #VoA thing and I hate it and have no idea how to get rid of it. It's one thing for teams to maybe have one new horrendously poor performance and the model adjusts but another for all the teams to mostly move up or down in unison.
November 19, 2025 at 5:19 PM
The yo-yo effect is officially a #VoA thing and I hate it and have no idea how to get rid of it. It's one thing for teams to maybe have one new horrendously poor performance and the model adjusts but another for all the teams to mostly move up or down in unison.
Well my #CFBVoA is still acting kind of weird, but at least the zero point is closer to the actual median number of teams now. On the other hand, talk to your kids about Top 10 Toledo? That's clearly not right, not to mention how many teams are above Georgia, Tennessee, Bama, etc. #RStats #MCMCStan
November 19, 2025 at 5:19 PM
So, per the EPA Level 3 Ecoregions, the areas outlined in light blue are all the L3 Ecoregions that fit inside the Level 1 Ecoregion (Level 1 Ecoregions are more generalized) that they called "Great Plains", and Minneapolis and St. Paul are just a bit outside those.
November 12, 2025 at 1:35 PM
So, per the EPA Level 3 Ecoregions, the areas outlined in light blue are all the L3 Ecoregions that fit inside the Level 1 Ecoregion (Level 1 Ecoregions are more generalized) that they called "Great Plains", and Minneapolis and St. Paul are just a bit outside those.
@alexkirshner.com @splitzoneduo.com this is starting to feel like a scenario where you fire the coach just to see if you still feel something
November 9, 2025 at 1:43 AM
@alexkirshner.com @splitzoneduo.com this is starting to feel like a scenario where you fire the coach just to see if you still feel something
And Week 10 projections, god help me some of these are huge margins.
October 28, 2025 at 8:21 PM
And Week 10 projections, god help me some of these are huge margins.
The SEC plot makes me so scared, I know Vanderbilt seems for real but them and Mizzou together just makes me so scared of fully trusting it. On the #FunBelt side, Southern Miss finally seems to be reflecting the turnover in their roster after so many Marshall people left for USM
October 28, 2025 at 8:21 PM
The SEC plot makes me so scared, I know Vanderbilt seems for real but them and Mizzou together just makes me so scared of fully trusting it. On the #FunBelt side, Southern Miss finally seems to be reflecting the turnover in their roster after so many Marshall people left for USM
Part of me wonders if the error adjustment I added is kicking in a bit stronger than I expected/wanted? Very curious to see what will happen to SDSU after this week. But since every good team (or winning team) is experiencing this same rise, maybe a bunch of teams could correct next week
October 28, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Part of me wonders if the error adjustment I added is kicking in a bit stronger than I expected/wanted? Very curious to see what will happen to SDSU after this week. But since every good team (or winning team) is experiencing this same rise, maybe a bunch of teams could correct next week
Oof Sam Houston really got rocked by the portal
October 28, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Oof Sam Houston really got rocked by the portal
good god OKSt is bad. very bleak
October 28, 2025 at 8:21 PM
good god OKSt is bad. very bleak
These charts in particular demonstrate the weirdness since almost every conference is showing most (but especially the top teams) dramatically rising in rating. Very suspicious!
October 28, 2025 at 8:21 PM
These charts in particular demonstrate the weirdness since almost every conference is showing most (but especially the top teams) dramatically rising in rating. Very suspicious!
Well I have totally neglected tweeting about the #CFBVoA again this year but here's the Week 9 CFB Vortex of Accuracy, and any ball-knowers out there will definitely notice a few things about how the model's started getting pretty weird:
Why is Florida St up there
#Windiana
San Diego St seems high?
Why is Florida St up there
#Windiana
San Diego St seems high?
October 28, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Is this what you look like when you watch soccer now
October 21, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Is this what you look like when you watch soccer now
@alexkirshner.com never wrong just early!
October 16, 2025 at 2:00 AM
@alexkirshner.com never wrong just early!
When the polar vortex comes and I want to stay cozy in bed:
September 17, 2025 at 9:28 AM
When the polar vortex comes and I want to stay cozy in bed:
