In this video I discuss why many experts got their predictions wrong about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Most said that Russia wouldn't invade at all, and those who did foresee an invasion often predicted a quick Russian victory.
So what was it that many experts didn't see at the time?

New study by @bressansar.bsky.social and Lea Marlene Korb: „Making #Foresight Count: Success Factors for #FuturesAnalysis in Foreign and Security Policy“
gppi.net/2024/09/18/s...

How to run a multi-method early warning system to prevent wars? Lessons from the EU.
My latest analysis for EUISS:
www.iss.europa.eu/content/powe...

Preventing wars is the EU's main foreign policy goal. How can algorithms and predictive models help? 

For EUISS, @bressansar.bsky.social argues that expanding the EU's early warning toolbox is key in light of new conflict risks – as is strengthening early action. 👇

bit.ly/48zkFCd

On event data: For those who haven't heard, the Political Instability Task Force is no more, it has ceased to be, it is bereft of its sad bureaucratic life, it rests in peace, it has shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain & joined the bleeding choir invisible: it is an ex-project. /more

⚠️ "The EU’s warning system is a good example of successful science-policy cooperation," says @bressansar.bsky.social in the first #EUISS (Brief of the year.

Sarah Bressan (@gppi.bsky.social) assesses the effectiveness of the #EU’s #conflictprevention mechanisms and how they can be strengthened.

Really excited we were able to put this one together, allowing me to discuss the potential + limits of #data4peace & violence prevention with some superstars. Join in NYC or online (3pm CEST): cic.nyu.edu/events/data-...