@greatquarter.bsky.social
CFA who has heard ''Great quarter guys!'' on many conference calls.
"U.S. equity, options, and futures markets are open [today] but it’s a non-settlement day because today is a federal/bank holiday in observance of Columbus Day."
October 13, 2025 at 12:03 PM
"U.S. equity, options, and futures markets are open [today] but it’s a non-settlement day because today is a federal/bank holiday in observance of Columbus Day."
S&P 500 up over 7% in Q3 2025! Wow. Great quarter guys!
September 30, 2025 at 8:00 PM
S&P 500 up over 7% in Q3 2025! Wow. Great quarter guys!
Regulators and traders around the world will be devoting time this weekend to read SEBI's "Interim Order In the matter of Index manipulation by Jane Street Group."
Pages 12 to 51 describe in detail ONE DAY of alleged market manipulation that produced noteworthy profits.
Pages 12 to 51 describe in detail ONE DAY of alleged market manipulation that produced noteworthy profits.
July 4, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Regulators and traders around the world will be devoting time this weekend to read SEBI's "Interim Order In the matter of Index manipulation by Jane Street Group."
Pages 12 to 51 describe in detail ONE DAY of alleged market manipulation that produced noteworthy profits.
Pages 12 to 51 describe in detail ONE DAY of alleged market manipulation that produced noteworthy profits.
Ken Rogoff... said the U.S. is leaving itself little room to go on a borrowing binge when it really needs to.
“We typically look to borrow 20% or 30% of GDP in these big crises,” he said. “It’s not clear markets will tolerate that.”
(unlocked link 👇)
www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
“We typically look to borrow 20% or 30% of GDP in these big crises,” he said. “It’s not clear markets will tolerate that.”
(unlocked link 👇)
www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
July 4, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Ken Rogoff... said the U.S. is leaving itself little room to go on a borrowing binge when it really needs to.
“We typically look to borrow 20% or 30% of GDP in these big crises,” he said. “It’s not clear markets will tolerate that.”
(unlocked link 👇)
www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
“We typically look to borrow 20% or 30% of GDP in these big crises,” he said. “It’s not clear markets will tolerate that.”
(unlocked link 👇)
www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
S&P 500 up > 10% in Q2!
Great quarter guys!
Great quarter guys!
June 30, 2025 at 8:00 PM
S&P 500 up > 10% in Q2!
Great quarter guys!
Great quarter guys!
"But now, it’s retail traders who are turning in droves to automated trading, building the kind of programs in their basements more associated with Wall Street banks than the Reddit thread r/wallstreetbets."
(link below)
(link below)
May 31, 2025 at 5:08 PM
"But now, it’s retail traders who are turning in droves to automated trading, building the kind of programs in their basements more associated with Wall Street banks than the Reddit thread r/wallstreetbets."
(link below)
(link below)
"Even those who are optimistic AI will unleash unthinkable cures and unimaginable economic growth fear dangerous short-term pain — and a possible job bloodbath during Trump's term."
(link follows)
(link follows)
May 31, 2025 at 11:25 AM
"Even those who are optimistic AI will unleash unthinkable cures and unimaginable economic growth fear dangerous short-term pain — and a possible job bloodbath during Trump's term."
(link follows)
(link follows)
US stocks and bonds wildly underperforming international (Rest of World) in 2025
YTD, $UUP (a $ index) -7%
$SPY (80% of US capitalization) price underperforming $ACWX (85% of RoW) by 15 % points
$IEF (7 - 10 yr US Treasury) price underperforming $BWX (10 yr sovereign IG debt ex US) by 6 % pts
YTD, $UUP (a $ index) -7%
$SPY (80% of US capitalization) price underperforming $ACWX (85% of RoW) by 15 % points
$IEF (7 - 10 yr US Treasury) price underperforming $BWX (10 yr sovereign IG debt ex US) by 6 % pts
May 24, 2025 at 5:45 PM
US stocks and bonds wildly underperforming international (Rest of World) in 2025
YTD, $UUP (a $ index) -7%
$SPY (80% of US capitalization) price underperforming $ACWX (85% of RoW) by 15 % points
$IEF (7 - 10 yr US Treasury) price underperforming $BWX (10 yr sovereign IG debt ex US) by 6 % pts
YTD, $UUP (a $ index) -7%
$SPY (80% of US capitalization) price underperforming $ACWX (85% of RoW) by 15 % points
$IEF (7 - 10 yr US Treasury) price underperforming $BWX (10 yr sovereign IG debt ex US) by 6 % pts
30-year government bond yields are rising globally.
Bears watching.
chart: Bloomberg
Bears watching.
chart: Bloomberg
May 24, 2025 at 12:26 PM
30-year government bond yields are rising globally.
Bears watching.
chart: Bloomberg
Bears watching.
chart: Bloomberg
Yesterday, at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh, Trump said the US stock market is "going to go a lot higher." Viewing the statement in context, Trump seemed to be focusing on the long term, saying the driver for a higher market would be a pro-business foundation. But who knows?
May 14, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Yesterday, at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh, Trump said the US stock market is "going to go a lot higher." Viewing the statement in context, Trump seemed to be focusing on the long term, saying the driver for a higher market would be a pro-business foundation. But who knows?
"Retail traders are the one group that seems unfazed by the Fed or Trump’s trade policies. When the market sold off sharply in late February, individual investors bought while institutions rotated out of US stocks at a near-record pace.
May 10, 2025 at 10:53 PM
"Retail traders are the one group that seems unfazed by the Fed or Trump’s trade policies. When the market sold off sharply in late February, individual investors bought while institutions rotated out of US stocks at a near-record pace.
It's Too Late: The Changes Are Coming
by RayDalio
Dalio has been saying for years we need to be concerned about the future and prepare.
Now, Dalio is saying "it's too late," the future is here.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-to...
by RayDalio
Dalio has been saying for years we need to be concerned about the future and prepare.
Now, Dalio is saying "it's too late," the future is here.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-to...
April 28, 2025 at 11:46 PM
It's Too Late: The Changes Are Coming
by RayDalio
Dalio has been saying for years we need to be concerned about the future and prepare.
Now, Dalio is saying "it's too late," the future is here.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-to...
by RayDalio
Dalio has been saying for years we need to be concerned about the future and prepare.
Now, Dalio is saying "it's too late," the future is here.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-to...
"Private Equity World Engulfed by Perfect Storm"
Recession was always worst case for private equity business and its equities. A recession was always going to happen. It is not a perfect storm.
"Now recession fears and market turmoil have brought dealmaking to a near standstill."
Recession was always worst case for private equity business and its equities. A recession was always going to happen. It is not a perfect storm.
"Now recession fears and market turmoil have brought dealmaking to a near standstill."
April 18, 2025 at 2:22 PM
"Private Equity World Engulfed by Perfect Storm"
Recession was always worst case for private equity business and its equities. A recession was always going to happen. It is not a perfect storm.
"Now recession fears and market turmoil have brought dealmaking to a near standstill."
Recession was always worst case for private equity business and its equities. A recession was always going to happen. It is not a perfect storm.
"Now recession fears and market turmoil have brought dealmaking to a near standstill."
"Some are sounding the alarm that this could be a “gray swan” event — a shock that’s predictable in theory, but largely ignored until it hits. Unlike black swans, which are truly unforeseen, gray swans lurk in plain sight."
Bloomberg Markets Daily, 4/02/25, referring to global credit
Bloomberg Markets Daily, 4/02/25, referring to global credit
April 3, 2025 at 9:47 AM
"Some are sounding the alarm that this could be a “gray swan” event — a shock that’s predictable in theory, but largely ignored until it hits. Unlike black swans, which are truly unforeseen, gray swans lurk in plain sight."
Bloomberg Markets Daily, 4/02/25, referring to global credit
Bloomberg Markets Daily, 4/02/25, referring to global credit
Wild quarter guys!
March 31, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Wild quarter guys!
If you are being offered participation in an IPO, maybe you don't want it.
We'll see. $CRWV
We'll see. $CRWV
March 28, 2025 at 4:32 PM
If you are being offered participation in an IPO, maybe you don't want it.
We'll see. $CRWV
We'll see. $CRWV
"Separating AI reality from hyped-up fiction isn't always easy...
So what's for real and what's just a lot of hallucinatory nonsense?"
MIT Technology Review, January/February 2025 issue
So what's for real and what's just a lot of hallucinatory nonsense?"
MIT Technology Review, January/February 2025 issue
March 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM
"Separating AI reality from hyped-up fiction isn't always easy...
So what's for real and what's just a lot of hallucinatory nonsense?"
MIT Technology Review, January/February 2025 issue
So what's for real and what's just a lot of hallucinatory nonsense?"
MIT Technology Review, January/February 2025 issue
"The result has been a futile stretch for retail bottom-fishers diving back into last year’s equity winners. For 16 separate sessions in 2025, day traders snapped up more than $2 billion of stocks, a pace of buying that occurred only four times in the previous two years,
March 21, 2025 at 3:17 PM
"The result has been a futile stretch for retail bottom-fishers diving back into last year’s equity winners. For 16 separate sessions in 2025, day traders snapped up more than $2 billion of stocks, a pace of buying that occurred only four times in the previous two years,
"In January, Goldman Sachs surveyed clients at its Global Strategy Conference. In the eight years of results the firm published, the share expecting the U.S. to be the world’s best-performing region for stocks was the highest ever."
by @spencerjakab.bsky.social
by @spencerjakab.bsky.social
March 19, 2025 at 10:34 AM
"In January, Goldman Sachs surveyed clients at its Global Strategy Conference. In the eight years of results the firm published, the share expecting the U.S. to be the world’s best-performing region for stocks was the highest ever."
by @spencerjakab.bsky.social
by @spencerjakab.bsky.social
Turns out institutional investors do believe that valuations do matter.
Biggest drop in US equity allocation on record.
Record rotation out of US stocks.
BoA Fund Manager Survey March 2025
Biggest drop in US equity allocation on record.
Record rotation out of US stocks.
BoA Fund Manager Survey March 2025
March 18, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Turns out institutional investors do believe that valuations do matter.
Biggest drop in US equity allocation on record.
Record rotation out of US stocks.
BoA Fund Manager Survey March 2025
Biggest drop in US equity allocation on record.
Record rotation out of US stocks.
BoA Fund Manager Survey March 2025