🔎 Explore the cutting-edge of impact attribution science, its implications for the world’s biggest polluters, and the future of climate litigation.

Written by @chloefarand.bsky.social: ow.ly/rgcv50WcaE3

💡 Using pioneering methods, the team found that in Florida alone:
▪️ 44% ($8.5bn) of Helene’s damages
▪️ 45% ($23bn) of Milton’s
…can be attributed directly to climate change.

💰Despite the regularly updated forecast and the preparedness from the population, the hurricane caused extensive damage across the Caribbean, with estimated billions of US dollars in impacts – a substantial fraction of most of the affected countries’ GDP.

🌡️The temperature and humidity conditions in which Melissa developed and intensified were made six times more likely due to climate change.

🌧️Maximum rainfall over five days in Jamaica and Eastern Cuba is now 20-50% higher than in pre-industrial times.

⬆️Climate change increased the maximum wind speeds by 7% and extreme rainfall by 16%, according to IRIS, a model that estimates the role of climate change in tropical cyclones.

The study also found that the atmospheric and ocean conditions leading to such powerful storms are about six times more likely due to climate change.

"Applying our [...] framework [...] will provide a foundation for transparent, consistent analysis, supporting accountability in global and national climate action and help to ensure that future climate pledges are both more ambitious, and credible," said lead author Julia Schönfeld.

Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social of @ic-cep.bsky.social said:

“The Paris Agreement sets a clear expectation for high ambition, but there is currently no clear way to measure and assess that ambition.

“We have developed a framework to fill that gap [...] and hold governments accountable.”

The authors argue action is needed locally, nationally & internationally to curb sales of new SUVs and reduce their presence in urban areas.

Cities can add higher parking fees, reform vehicle excise duty (the UK currently has some of the lowest) and including dimensional info on car regs can help.

SUVs also increase air pollution.

In Europe’s urban areas, air pollution from non-exhaust emissions (ie, tyres, brakes, and road wear) now dominates particulate matter pollution and may be important contributors to chronic illnesses and premature mortality.

Carspreading is also an obstacle to achieving climate and air quality goals.

Counting cars and SUVs together, around 80% of all new sales run exclusively, or partly, on fossil fuels, while 20% are all electric.

Those who walk or cycle face a cohort of new cars each year that are becoming wider and taller (and more dangerous).

These vehicles reduce the space for cyclists to move safely beside them and make it harder to achieve an increase in active travel and the public health benefits it entails.

3. Climate pledges should account for how different climate actions impact each other and be possible in the near future.

2. Internationally, climate pledges should support the achievement of the Paris Agreement temperature goals in an equitable way.

The paper outlines three key pillars for assessing countries' pledges:

1. Countries’ climate pledges should be based on a fair assessment of their national emission reduction options.

Following the landmark opinion of the International Court of Justice, countries can be legally held to account if they fail to pursue their "highest possible ambition" in their climate pledges.

But until now, an understanding of what “highest possible ambition” means has remained elusive.