Gavin Hales
@gmhales.bsky.social
Researching/discussing policing, crime and the criminal justice system. Senior Associate Fellow @policefoundationuk.bsky.social but my own views.
Based in London, UK.
Based in London, UK.
Second, arrest v positive outcome rates.
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November 30, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Second, arrest v positive outcome rates.
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A couple of other charts, for the sake of completeness. First, positive outcome v S&S rates.
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November 30, 2025 at 4:35 PM
A couple of other charts, for the sake of completeness. First, positive outcome v S&S rates.
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Importantly, there is generally a high degree of alignment between SDE and officer-perceived ethnic appearance, especially for the main ethnic groups. Notably, at least 4/5 people who self-identify as White/Black mixed heritage are recorded as having a Black appearance.
November 29, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Importantly, there is generally a high degree of alignment between SDE and officer-perceived ethnic appearance, especially for the main ethnic groups. Notably, at least 4/5 people who self-identify as White/Black mixed heritage are recorded as having a Black appearance.
It may be of interest that in stop and search data, Black people are more likely than White and Asian to have their self-defined ethnicity recorded as 'not stated'. That means that if SDE is used for calculating disproportionality, Black disproportionality will be under-stated.
November 29, 2025 at 3:52 PM
It may be of interest that in stop and search data, Black people are more likely than White and Asian to have their self-defined ethnicity recorded as 'not stated'. That means that if SDE is used for calculating disproportionality, Black disproportionality will be under-stated.
This is also interesting: there's quite a consistent pattern where forces with a higher % of non-White stops have a higher % of self-defined ethnicity (SDE) recorded as 'not stated'. West Mids, W Yorks and CoLP appear to be outliers.
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November 29, 2025 at 2:58 PM
This is also interesting: there's quite a consistent pattern where forces with a higher % of non-White stops have a higher % of self-defined ethnicity (SDE) recorded as 'not stated'. West Mids, W Yorks and CoLP appear to be outliers.
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One addition, which I think is very important - comparing stop and search criminality detected/positive outcome rates by subject ethnicity and police force.
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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November 29, 2025 at 1:25 PM
One addition, which I think is very important - comparing stop and search criminality detected/positive outcome rates by subject ethnicity and police force.
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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And looking at the data for 2024/25, it is notable that the Met is the only force to have both above average rates of stop and search (per 1,000) and resulting arrest rates. Lincs' arrest rate is conspicuously low.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
And looking at the data for 2024/25, it is notable that the Met is the only force to have both above average rates of stop and search (per 1,000) and resulting arrest rates. Lincs' arrest rate is conspicuously low.
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Looking at arrest rates by police force over time, I was interested to see that arrest rates in the Met are now higher than those in comparative forces. That was also the case around 2013-16, when S&S volumes/rates in the MPS were also low by historic standards.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Looking at arrest rates by police force over time, I was interested to see that arrest rates in the Met are now higher than those in comparative forces. That was also the case around 2013-16, when S&S volumes/rates in the MPS were also low by historic standards.
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Next, I was interested to see what has happened to S&S arrest rates. It's interesting to see that arrest rates have increased in recent years, despite overall S&S volumes not changing much - which is not consistent with the long-term picture.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Next, I was interested to see what has happened to S&S arrest rates. It's interesting to see that arrest rates have increased in recent years, despite overall S&S volumes not changing much - which is not consistent with the long-term picture.
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I've been having a rummage in the most recent Home Office stop and search data, published earlier this month. The first thing to note is that Merseyside Police are out on their own in terms of rates per 1,000 population. #stopsearch.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
I've been having a rummage in the most recent Home Office stop and search data, published earlier this month. The first thing to note is that Merseyside Police are out on their own in terms of rates per 1,000 population. #stopsearch.
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An example of a "telling not reporting" case that will have been counted as victim withdrawal, where there was no 'report' as anyone would commonly understand that word.
November 25, 2025 at 9:34 AM
An example of a "telling not reporting" case that will have been counted as victim withdrawal, where there was no 'report' as anyone would commonly understand that word.
BBC News - "Gardeners unearth stolen phones left by snatchers"
One example of how and why police can stop and search the right people but find nothing.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
One example of how and why police can stop and search the right people but find nothing.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
November 25, 2025 at 7:17 AM
BBC News - "Gardeners unearth stolen phones left by snatchers"
One example of how and why police can stop and search the right people but find nothing.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
One example of how and why police can stop and search the right people but find nothing.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Bucket list night out watching Radiohead at the O2 yesterday with my wife and kids. First time I've seen them live in 30+ years of listening to them and it was relentlessly magnificent.
November 22, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Bucket list night out watching Radiohead at the O2 yesterday with my wife and kids. First time I've seen them live in 30+ years of listening to them and it was relentlessly magnificent.
The officer who appeared in the Panorama documentary boasting about beating a detainee's legs with his baton made up that account, which didn't happen. He was dismissed without notice. www.met.police.uk/foi-ai/metro...
November 14, 2025 at 9:15 PM
The officer who appeared in the Panorama documentary boasting about beating a detainee's legs with his baton made up that account, which didn't happen. He was dismissed without notice. www.met.police.uk/foi-ai/metro...
The counter-cyclical pattern means DA homicides reached 24% of the total in the year to June 2025, approaching historically high levels - a function of rising DA homicides and falling non-DA homicides (latter to v low levels). #crimestats
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November 11, 2025 at 9:36 PM
The counter-cyclical pattern means DA homicides reached 24% of the total in the year to June 2025, approaching historically high levels - a function of rising DA homicides and falling non-DA homicides (latter to v low levels). #crimestats
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I thought it was interesting that DA and non-DA homicides have been counter-cyclical over the last decade, and followed v different patterns long-term. 17% of homicides have been DA since 2003, 15% over the past decade.
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November 11, 2025 at 9:36 PM
I thought it was interesting that DA and non-DA homicides have been counter-cyclical over the last decade, and followed v different patterns long-term. 17% of homicides have been DA since 2003, 15% over the past decade.
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I had a quick look at homicide trends in London (MPS) having seen this headline. DA homicides have been increasing for 2 years, but nos aren't unusually high - 24 in the year to June v 23.2/yr avg since 2003, 19.3 last decade (these are rolling annual totals). www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/m...
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November 11, 2025 at 9:36 PM
I had a quick look at homicide trends in London (MPS) having seen this headline. DA homicides have been increasing for 2 years, but nos aren't unusually high - 24 in the year to June v 23.2/yr avg since 2003, 19.3 last decade (these are rolling annual totals). www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/m...
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Disproportionality isn't prima facie evidence of bias. Are there differences by ethnicity in the presence of factors that inform the remand decision? Has anyone checked?
November 11, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Disproportionality isn't prima facie evidence of bias. Are there differences by ethnicity in the presence of factors that inform the remand decision? Has anyone checked?
As this diagram from the report shows, the bar for remand is really quite high for children. I imagine a key issue is whether the risks the child presents can be managed safely in the community?
November 11, 2025 at 7:42 AM
As this diagram from the report shows, the bar for remand is really quite high for children. I imagine a key issue is whether the risks the child presents can be managed safely in the community?
I'm curious to know if the sentencing of any of the 441 would have taken into account their time spent on remand, either as 'time served', or otherwise as part of their punishment?
November 11, 2025 at 7:41 AM
I'm curious to know if the sentencing of any of the 441 would have taken into account their time spent on remand, either as 'time served', or otherwise as part of their punishment?
Currently, the heaviest users of S&S by some margin are Merseyside, but no-one is interested in them because with a tiny Black population race isn't the contentious issue it is in London. www.gov.uk/government/s...
November 9, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Currently, the heaviest users of S&S by some margin are Merseyside, but no-one is interested in them because with a tiny Black population race isn't the contentious issue it is in London. www.gov.uk/government/s...
One of my favourite ever charts. The cuts to S&S, first by the Met and then under T May's BUSS scheme, were, I suggest, made possible by the fall in violence during that period. They were substantially reversed when knife homicide rapidly increased in 2017 and 2018.
November 9, 2025 at 10:53 PM
One of my favourite ever charts. The cuts to S&S, first by the Met and then under T May's BUSS scheme, were, I suggest, made possible by the fall in violence during that period. They were substantially reversed when knife homicide rapidly increased in 2017 and 2018.
Notwithstanding the excesses of the past, in the Met s60 currently accounts for 2% of stops over the last year, almost all in August (most will be linked to the policing of Carnival) public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
November 9, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Notwithstanding the excesses of the past, in the Met s60 currently accounts for 2% of stops over the last year, almost all in August (most will be linked to the policing of Carnival) public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
By the way, this healthcare example of disproportionality might be of interest, related to Covid mortality early in the pandemic (Aug 2020): 4.2x disproportionality fully explained once "age, sex, obesity and comorbidities [were] taken into account" assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5f3283...
November 9, 2025 at 9:01 PM
By the way, this healthcare example of disproportionality might be of interest, related to Covid mortality early in the pandemic (Aug 2020): 4.2x disproportionality fully explained once "age, sex, obesity and comorbidities [were] taken into account" assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5f3283...
The context is the NPCC commitment to equity www.npcc.police.uk/our-work/pol....
November 9, 2025 at 7:34 PM
The context is the NPCC commitment to equity www.npcc.police.uk/our-work/pol....